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Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.


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I'm afraid the forecasts we look increasingly likely to front over next few days will be anything but popular in many districts. About to receive briefing shortly on the Sun-Mon developments and I doubt it contains anything pretty regarding Exeter's emerging views on where this all ends-up. I do re-stress it's rainfall and possibly winds that are the pressing concern, despite understandable interest on this forum for snow.

I know, it’s not a pretty picture, but we must find some humour where we can, it’s been as you say a fascinating winter, some of the most extreme synoptics we have seen for a long time, but missing the vital ingredients for most on this thread, not everyone though is just interested by cold and snow.

Edited by weather eater
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As I understand, even today's rain has had a considerable impact in this area (this being a locale which hasn't even been that badly affected so far). A couple of people have told me today that road conditions were treacherous as any amount of rainfall is just running of sodden fields etc straight onto public roads. I can imagine this could be a devastating period in terms of flooding for some areas.

 

Indeed CC, another few hours of heavy, squally stuff down here tonight and on my way to work the past few weeks I'm increasingly reminded why the word "Winterbourne" makes up our local place name ancestry. Roads are suffering with continual run-off from overloaded ground-water springs, natural semi-watersheds, overly urbanised flood plains even in areas with a bit of altitude and hillside. It's all bad. The River Frome a good 50 meters below our back window has been Lake Frome for the past couple of months. The heavy disrupting lows for the weekend don't bring many crumbs of comfort even if there might be a bit of NWesterly cold pooling for a few wet flakes. Summed it up watching Winter watch tonight with the heavily WET SNOW even at altitude in the Cairngorms. Filthy stuff.

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"We are coming to something of a tipping point this winter...". The words of the Dep Chief, re either a continuation of the "relentless" westerlies or a major pattern change, ring loud re model watching into next week. In short: a critical period in their view, with "a chance of a cold snap and easterlies" or alternatively the status quo re-established all too soon, in which case "...it will be too late.. (to change the character of this very wet Winter)..". It is no exaggeration to say that what unfolds in next few days of model-watching is potentially fundamental to rest of Winter...

21 Jan 2014 2pm -ish

 

Its a pattern knife edge and all bets are off at this time

 

Updated:

 

Indeed, sorry I missed out on that particular briefing thoughPosted ImagePosted Image

 

 

 

 

Edited by Tamara תָּמָר
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by monday there might be not much left of uk! I'm increasingly concerned now. Some of you may wish to pop over to the atlantic storms thread and check it out!!!

If I remember correctly, at the start of winter, was it not you that wanted a stormy and windy spell of weather? :p

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I'm afraid the forecasts we look increasingly likely to front over next few days will be anything but popular in many districts. About to receive briefing shortly on the Sun-Mon developments and I doubt it contains anything pretty regarding Exeter's emerging views on where this all ends-up. I do re-stress it's rainfall and possibly winds that are the pressing concern, despite understandable interest on this forum for snow.

 

Same old, same old. So the Shannon entropy turned into another certainty: Wet and windy for most people... quelle surprise.

Edited by Iceni
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Define 'many'

A few thousand sheep on the top of the mountains???

Back to serious. At the moment it looks like getting colder by stealth. Subtle changes close to reliable time frame seem to be offering a slightly colder outlook on average on each run. Deep FI still shows it's normal swing and changes.

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can us coldies please bank the jma

Posted Image

although for us southern folk theres no surprise snowfall in the outlook unless of coarse the jma is the correct model although I feel its performed well not this well for coldies.

im not sure if the 850s would be conductive for snowfall here in the south unless you live on a high hill.

Edited by emotional rollercoaster
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GFS fails to move the trigger low SE. It just weakens over us before the PV starts to move Eastward.

 

Looks like the ECM may follow suit with the UKMO, which is pretty awesome looking at 144HR. I can't see the dartboard low at 120hr stalling or sending energy NE this time around.

 

Here's hoping the energy goes SE and continues to do so.

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GFS0Z is pants,nothing more,nothing less.

UKMO looks slightly more favourable but can't see the 850s so not sure if its cold rain on the menu,or snow.

850s not pants anyway if you live North of the Midlands

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014012200/UW144-7.GIF?22-06Posted Image

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png Nice

Edited by winterof79
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Why is GFS 0z pants in regards to your location, NW England, when it shows bursts of cold polar WNW maritime air, a wind direction that favours the region for potential wintriness when Ian Fergusson himself mentioned in a post before about the coldness of that flow?

It's got to be said the cold for northern parts is really something and as days move on the west northwest flow is really truly cold with blizzards and lots of snow.I think those Wales and north and north west are truly about to endure lots of wintry weather.The sad thing is its not good for us in the south and southeast so I'm sure Steve Murr has been holding back his frustration.So it's north south split cold north average in the south but always a little dryer only a little and frost will become a feature across the country under clear sky's.
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METO great this morning, the rest of the output not so great tbh.

GEFS still has some support for the easterly but this suite is much less supportive than last night. If this morning is heralding a new trend it's not a good one because it's implying a stream of lows diving across us around the top of the Azures high. Some epic rainfall I'd have thought and some of the GEFS are pretty scary with the storms they bring through.

My heart says METO is right, my brain reminds me its winter 2013 / 2014 and which means more of the same......

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indeed when you look at the northern hemisphere charts it really is a nice chart although would be nice to see a stronger ridge into the arctic but its still good and for this to pop up at t144 still shows more potential.

now its how the vortex disrupts is it heading towards Greenland again because if its going to migrate over to this side of the hemisphere its going to find it hard with blocking to our northeast so lets see where the vortex settles.

Posted Image

as you can see the mother vortex is over the Russian side there is a small part of the vortex stretched from the Canadian side into the southern tip of Greenland but the block is stretching west and southwest into south eastern Greenland and along Iceland any strengthening of this block will only aid better disruption of the jet stream helping push lows more on a southeasterly direction this chart along with the jma are the best charts of the day already.

 

but given the volatile nature of the vortex this winter and continued uncertainty with in the models it still is 50/50 for us southern folk.

although very good for the northern and western areas.

daily express headlines half of the uk brought to a stand still as the vortex heads close to the uk lol.

Edited by emotional rollercoaster
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All runs reach broadly the same place by T120/T144 with a deep low headed straight for the UK, with colder uppers being drawn in on the northern flank and a possibility of a wintry 'snap' in northern areas of the UK - doesn't look like lasting long at present though. Another cliffhanger coming up then.

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