Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.

[Duane S.]

I'm very realistic about what to expect thankyou.Iv not ramped up cold this winter , Iv been very realistic all winter. Everybody knows this winter has been about patience and still is . The facts are the pattern going forward is very very different to December , I'm not gonna bother to go through everything again , have a look at my previous posts if interested , I was merely commenting on the way the chart pushed the very strong arctic high out the way very very easily , when experience tells me even taking this last week as an example that models time and time again underestimate the block , especially when it's t144 plus . It looked an unrealistic jump from a fairly -AO to a much more positive one .Iv not ramped up a freeze , but I'm a lot more positive than some on hear and certainly don't jump from ecstasy to depression in the matter of 12 hours like some.I know what pattern we're in ,and know how to spot trends and "potential" pattern changes, and taking everything into account I think the next 6 wks is gonna be a lot more entertaining than the last .

 

Good post. I think there is a big difference between blind optimism and realistic hopes. Or put another way, a big difference between December and where we are now.

 

The potential is there for all to see or at least there for those who are open to it. Op runs will play out a variety of paths over the next 10 days, a severe cold spell remains an outside bet during January but then i have seen few people, if anyone, saying otherwise? February has always been the month of most promise (probably the case most winters) and so far that is still very much still on.

 

As February approaches and the Russian high is starting to become more and more of a main player and looks like it is going nowhere for a while. A 'product of its own success', as these large winter high pressure systems over Russia often are, the bigger it gets so gets the harder it will be for the Atlantic to shift it readily and the more influential it will likely be on our weather. One caveat to that is though, that on occasion a big old high pressure beast in the East can end up being more of a hinderance than a help as they sit there just out of reach, leaving us in a frustrating 'no mans land' scenario. But of course that is just one scenario of many yet to play out.

 

Much to look forward to in the coming weeks!

[The Northern Ramper]

Err, quite, Gibby. Plus depth temperatures still not very low (versus very different scenario last year), so it would have to be something non-marginal other than at sufficient elevation. Anyway - I agreed with your earlier comments. It's been an utterly fascinating winter thus-far, albeit for all the wrong reasons for those affected by flooding. It's a personal view, but the polarised variance from last year has actually made it all the more compelling. I've no reason to think February will prove any less interesting and challenging.

I am sure it is a worry for you in the South regarding flooding and model watching has been far from straight forward so certainly not boring, but for the majority in this thread Ian so far this winter has been crap.

[Yarmy]

Sploging its duff all over us mucka until there are fundamental changes over there I fear for us coldies

 

If only the BBC forecasts were in Netweather-speak: "Brighter spells tomorrow followed by soul-destroying messterlies as the PV continues to splodge its duff over the UK."

 

Meanwhile, this is much better than the ECM earlier as no energy migrates from Siberia back across the pole.

 

 

You wouldn't bet against the ECM though.

[Tim Bland]

Keep hitting that refresh button peeps a good FI should be coming up. An opening in the PV allowing an Atlantic ridge and the energy from that low going SE. It will probably look good for a few frames before te low res part kicks in and flatterns it out

[Mucka]

Yes sadly its a case of better upstream worse downstream, that bowling ball low takes so long to fill and sink se that even with the more amplified upstream pattern the energy still manages to attach itself, if you had the 12hrs downstream and this upstream you'd probably get the clearance of energy, but it seems to be what can go wrong will at the moment!

 

The ECM De Bilt ensembles  have solutions that are like the GFS 18hrs run downstream, the operational run is in the colder cluster for the 25/26 January before they converge once again, the actual blocking to the north and ne is better with the GFS 18hrs run but the low is too deep and round and poorly tilted.

 

Agreed, the only real difference is the "better" modelling of the Arctic high has forced things West and if we could the low to clear off into Europe and amplification behind we would have had a shot at a good link up.

That is not the way things have gone today though unfortunately and it does seem to be like thwakamole at times with one spoiler knocked on the head but another popping up.

 

GFS 18z has a a second attempt end of high res but the relentless PV is ready to pounce SW of Greenland once more by the look of things. Better than the 12z though.

Edited January 21, 2014 by Mucka

[Continental Climate]

whilst Canada and the CONUS are experiencing record breaking cold there is zip chance of us getting any long lasting meaningful cold in western Europe. Its just going to be zonal train after zonal train unfortunately.

 

Maybe it is time to call this winter and move on to spring (hoping its nice and warm)

Edited January 21, 2014 by Continental Climate

[Ice Day]

Not sure it's going to last long, but at 216 we're into an easterly flow.  Colder uppers incoming as well

 

 

[Joe Levy]

First chart of low resolution and the Scandi block has moved westwards thanks to some help from the Arctic and the Azores high, which ridged northwards to slow down the pv injections into the Atlantic and support the Arctic high

Leaving us with this lovely chart further in the future and the uppers are pretty cold too

Edited January 21, 2014 by Joe Levy

[damianslaw]

Sploging its duff all over us mucka until there are fundamental changes over there I fear for us coldies

 

 

Changes are taking place over the northern hemisphere - we have a developing build of high pressure directly over the Pole. If some of the forecasts are correct and we do see a pronounced attack on the PV then there is every chance we will see a possible atlantic high - arctic high link up. Might take a while yet before we get there .. but the development of heights over the Pole increases the chances of a colder period settling in markedly.

 

The northern hemisphere set up is far different to where we were 2 months ago.

[cooling climate]

 

If only the BBC forecasts were in Netweather-speak: "Brighter spells tomorrow followed by soul-destroying messterlies as the PV continues to splodge its duff over the UK."

 

Meanwhile, this is much better than the ECM earlier as no energy migrates from Siberia back across the pole.

 

 

You wouldn't bet against the ECM though.

In the past I would have agreed with that statement 90% of the time but

this winter the ECM has been all over the shop the same as the rest of

the models.

[karlos1983]

quite like this.. let battle commence

 

[Captain Shortwave]

Probably the best low resolution GFS run for a long time.

[Mucka]

Low res GFS disrupts the proceeding lows West of the UK and so we have a major snow fest, shame it is FI.

 

Edited January 21, 2014 by Mucka

[Duane S.]

Keep hitting that refresh button peeps a good FI should be coming up. An opening in the PV allowing an Atlantic ridge and the energy from that low going SE. It will probably look good for a few frames before te low res part kicks in and flatterns it out

 

Thing is though, there is no strong signal to develop a mid Atlantic ridge at that stage. More likely for the block to the NE to influence things and allow a better undercut / slider setup

[Purga]

A fun chart

 

Pity it won't happen!

[SnowObsessor90]

lol, it  looks like the pub run is actually  living up to it's name for once

Edited January 21, 2014 by SnowObsessor90

[Cloud 10]

A very snowy chart for the 1st of February from the 18z tonight.

 

[karlos1983]

 

A fun chart

 

Pity it won't happen!

 

oh come on Purga lol, show some enthusiasm 

Edited January 21, 2014 by karlos1983

[damianslaw]

whilst Canada and the CONUS are experiencing record breaking cold there is zip chance of us getting any long lasting meaningful cold in western Europe. Its just going to be zonal train after zonal train unfortunately.

 

Maybe it is time to call this winter and move on to spring (hoping its nice and warm)

 

 

Mmm tempted to have this post deleted , such posts help no-one... there is no certainty when it comes to the weather!

[Jason M]

Decent 18z run tonight. seen enough at the end of high res.

Fairly plausible run and not an outlier tonight when considered alongside other outputs.

[nick sussex]

Agreed, the only real difference is the "better" modelling of the Arctic high has forced things West and if we could the low to clear off into Europe and amplification behind we would have had a shot at a good link up.

That is not the way things have gone today though unfortunately and it does seem to be like thwakamole at times with one spoiler knocked on the head but another popping up.

 

GFS 18z has a a second attempt end of high res but the relentless PV is ready to pounce SW of Greenland once more by the look of things. Better than the 12z though.

I'm in shock something actually went right! this is why a clearance of energy is so important to get some blocking in a better position before the next Atlantic push, unfortunately the GFS is all over the place between outputs and although it makes it with the second attempt I won't be running out to stock pile food based on its output.

 

It's better than the ECM and at this point and given the crud winter so far for the UK if by some miracle this output actually verified as shown I'd take it and be happy!

[ukpaul]

The improvement in the 18z starts very early on, within around 96h, then the dominos can fall in a way that leads to its further westward shift and the battleground event over us. It does need GFS to do its usual in FI to create it though, so further westward correction as it reaches low res may disappointingly leave us in a barren, if cold, no man's land.

 

Next few days model watching are going to be very interesting though, that's for sure.

 

(also worth mentioning is the potential western fringes being battered with strong winds, potentially blizzard like at just 126h).

[Duane S.]

A fun chart

 

Pity it won't happen!

 

These are the sort of daft posts that ruin this thread. 'pity it won't happen' ? Why not then? Perhaps you'd care to explain or are you just trying to dampen the mood because it's a pretty good run and spirits are high. Sorry Purga but you do have form in this respect...

[Yarmy]

A fun chart

 

Pity it won't happen!

 

 

Ha, snow for everyone, apart from North Norfolk. WHICH IS WHERE I LIVE. 

Anyone, a decent note to end on before bed. Now, where did I chuck that towel?

[Tim Bland]

BANK!!! GFS 18z is clearly bang on the money and all other models and the metoffice are wrong. Every other model will look like this tommorow and the Meto will be warning of impending blizzards....what could possibly go wrong!?