Jump to content

Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 2.7k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Sorry mods but couldnt help myself editing this picture! Posted Image

sorry for being off topic but that is hilarious, roll on winter 2163  

Edited by Tony27
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Sorry mods but couldnt help myself editing this picture! Posted Image

I think you should make that you profile picture on here! People seem to like it :D I just wish that the chart shown on the screen was part of a model consensus!

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Perhaps we could be looking at an Arctic blast? This could be wishful thinking but...

 

Scandi low to sink south inviting Arctic airflow (northerly) to follow in behind? Greenland heights extend further south too with colder 850's extending down from the north and over Scandinavia.

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

For my interpretation of what may happen... or what I (we - most of us) would like to happen.

 

Posted Image

 

The low comes up against the HP now in Russia, with the tail of the low concertinaing in behind (straight red lines and arrows). LP has nowhere to go, extends vertically (red rings) with a northerly flow (blue/white arrow) introduced.

 

Azores buggers off back south with the Jet either weakening or pushing south also.

 

You can see in the two frames from the 850's that colder air is building from NW, N, NE and E.

 

Perhaps it's just a delirious state I am in.

 

A possibility though?

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites

Perhaps we could be looking at an Arctic blast? This could be wishful thinking but...

 

Scandi low to sink south inviting Arctic airflow (northerly) to follow in behind? Greenland heights extend further south too with colder 850's extending down from the north and over Scandinavia.

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

For my interpretation of what may happen... or what I (we - most of us) would like to happen.

 

Posted Image

 

The low comes up against the HP now in Russia, with the tail of the low concertinaing in behind (straight red lines and arrows). LP has nowhere to go, extends vertically (red rings) with a northerly flow (blue/white arrow) introduced.

 

Azores buggers off back south with the Jet either weakening or pushing south also.

 

You can see in the two frames from the 850's that colder air is building from NW, N, NE and E.

 

Perhaps it's just a delirious state I am in.

 

A possibility though?

 

Perhaps we could be looking at an Arctic blast? This could be wishful thinking but...

 

Scandi low to sink south inviting Arctic airflow (northerly) to follow in behind? Greenland heights extend further south too with colder 850's extending down from the north and over Scandinavia.

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

For my interpretation of what may happen... or what I (we - most of us) would like to happen.

 

Posted Image

 

The low comes up against the HP now in Russia, with the tail of the low concertinaing in behind (straight red lines and arrows). LP has nowhere to go, extends vertically (red rings) with a northerly flow (blue/white arrow) introduced.

 

Azores buggers off back south with the Jet either weakening or pushing south also.

 

You can see in the two frames from the 850's that colder air is building from NW, N, NE and E.

 

Perhaps it's just a delirious state I am in.

 

A possibility though?

Delirious sounds good ,i,ll bank this ,lets hope feb delivers ,cheers .Posted Image

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

I reckon that what is going to happen over the next 2 weeks is anybody's guess - The westerlies are losing strength and at long last Moscow is getting some proper cold and this is working west, meanwhile Scandinavia is cooling down quite well, so we have the opponents in the blue corner.

 

In the red corner, there are still lows in the Atlantic with the Azores high below that, so the scene is set for a battle but part of the problem as far as we are concerned is that the North Sea is above average temps and there has been no real cooling over the UK as yet.

 

From the looks of the charts it looks like the front lines are being set up over the North Sea, making us tantalising close to the cold air but not quite making it at the moment. The battle looks like going on for a little while but a lot depends on how well entrenched the cold becomes and whether it continue its westwards path, or is the Atlantic going to get another lease of life?

 

It must be a difficult job being a forecaster under these conditions Posted Image

Edited by mike Meehan
Link to post
Share on other sites

Writing an essay at the moment as is the life of a student, so using my breaks to have a look at the models, and the inter-run variability is still keeping me on the edge of my seat! At 96hours the GFS 0z corrects westwards to give a more continental flow, extending the potential for wintry weather a little bit. Nothing major, but on our small island, small changes count

Posted Image

And on the UKMO 0z the situation is roughly the same, with quite cold uppers as well

Posted ImagePosted Image

At 120hours on the GFS the block is several hundred miles further west as well - small in hemispheric terms, but significant for our region

Posted Image

UKMO broadly the same but a smidge further east than the GFS and the jet angle isn't as favourable, but still better than earlier.

Posted Image

I am going to stop at 144hours as even that is beyond the reliable in such a difficult situation as this. The GFS 0z is much better than previous output, with a better angle to the jet, a westward correction and greater trough disruption. However, this only increases the uncertainty if this run was so different to the last!

Posted Image

It was hard not to resist posting this chart from the GFS at 168hours and it is really just for fun as it is a little way away, but just one more, I promise Posted Image very similar to the JMA that appeared yesterday evening - cold and low thicknesses so wintry showers possible just about anywhere. But not to be taken too seriously yet!

Posted Image

Edited by Joe Levy
  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites

I know I've been bleating on about this for days, but the consistency of this warming on the GFS is getting rather impressive, I just hope it stays that way. I know that stratospheric forecasts are often more accurate than tropospheric ones, not 100% sure why.

Posted Image

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

I know I've been bleating on about this for days, but the consistency of this warming on the GFS is getting rather impressive, I just hope it stays that way. I know that stratospheric forecasts are often more accurate than tropospheric ones, not 100% sure why.

Posted Image

 

I just hope it doesn't ruin the cold spell we will be in by then Posted Image

 

GEM good agreement with UKMO re the Arctic high and link up with Scandi heights but really ramps up the Atlantic. 

 

Posted Image

 

Even so low pressure is till forced South into the continent.

 

Posted Image

 

It ultimately fails because it has a fast and flat pattern upstream with PV around Greenland refusing to budge but that is way past the reliable so no worries about it not showing a big freeze yet

Edited by Mucka
  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Morning Joe.

Nice to see the GFS has modelled Arctic ridge this morning after dropping yesterday but it is still struggling with the Arctic high I reckon. Other than that though it is pretty close to UKMO upstream at 144h which we have not seen for a while.

The UKMO 144h chart is loaded with potential with the vortex well and truly split with high pressure linking right across the Arctic

 

Posted Image

 

That next low coming in from the Atlantic could well be the trigger low as it is hard to see how that could go anywhere but under and into Europe. We would want to see some decent amplification behind ideally but that would be aided by the diving low should it happen.

 

GFS pushes the next low South and at the end of hi res the NH looks completely different to yesterdays dross it was spewing out.

 

Posted Image

 

It doesn't quite get there on this run giving a chilly couple of days but I think the wintry potential should become apparent to all this morning though there are some die hard doom mongers around this forum. Posted Image

Good morning to you too! Or good evening from my perspective... I haven't yet gone to bed... yes it is interesting how much difference 6 hours can make! The GFS and UKMO have shifted significantly. The disclaimer is that this doesn't guarantee cold, but rather the uncertainty has increased even more, since such dramatic changes in a short time frame have big consequences on our ability to forecast! It's why I joined this forum, because it's so damn exciting!

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Good morning to you too! Or good evening from my perspective... I haven't yet gone to bed... yes it is interesting how much difference 6 hours can make! The GFS and UKMO have shifted significantly. The disclaimer is that this doesn't guarantee cold, but rather the uncertainty has increased even more, since such dramatic changes in a short time frame have big consequences on our ability to forecast! It's why I joined this forum, because it's so damn exciting!

 

Yes there is an awful lot going on in those charts for weather geeks such as us to get our teeth into and it could certainly all end in tears again but there is no doubt this is our best chance of the Winter thus far.

I'm expecting some good eye candy among this mornings ensembles but more looking forward to seeing what ECM comes up with.

I'm quietly confident we will see some wintry Op runs this evening for end of January but given the uncertainty I will try to keep my enthusiasm in check until there is some model consensus for a wintry spell developing rather than just potential.

Until then I will be looking in the more reliable time-frame to see if the NH profile verifies to something similar to UKMO or better and then to see where that next Atlantic low goes and what might develop behind.

 

EDIT

 

GFS ensembles haven't caught up yet with many having the NH almost certainly wrong by 120h (ie not like the Op or control or other models re high pressure) but they should slowly latch on through the day. If that is the case we may see them trend colder through the day.

Edited by Mucka
  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=189&y=176 (South West England)

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=309&y=141 (South East England)

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=272&y=0 (Northern England)

Nice short ENS from the GFS 0z - pretty decent chances of snow around midweek and still a lot of members bringing -4/-5 uppers across the country at the end of the period

Edited by Joe Levy
Link to post
Share on other sites

Aaah the GFS has now returned to be the favourite model I presume due to showing a cold outlook. It will be interesting if the ECM backs it up. UKMO shows the block just hanging on. So all eyes on the ECM i suspect it will confirm the earlier run with the Atlantic powering through.

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites

Aaah the GFS has now returned to be the favourite model I presume due to showing a cold outlook. It will be interesting if the ECM backs it up. UKMO shows the block just hanging on. So all eyes on the ECM i suspect it will confirm the earlier run with the Atlantic powering through.

 

What?

The GFS isn't really showing a cold outlook and personally I don't favour any model because it shows cold anyway.

As for UKMO showing the block just hanging on - are you sure you have looked at the right charts?

The UKMO shows the Scandi high linked up with a 1045mb Arctic high itself being reinforced by the Arctic ridge - the Atlantic is not getting through there and the only place the next low is heading is SE into the continent. 

 

Posted Image

 

 

ECM however is really ramping up the Atlantic at 120h as easily the most progressive run thus far. It will be interesting to see if the block holds out against that onslaught and we can still force low pressure into the continent, if we can the signs are good.

 

Posted Image

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites

ECM not backing the UKMO/GFS in maintaining stronger Scandi heights at T120 so unlikely to disrupt at T144 in the same way?

Even so, I was very surprised this morning to see both GFS and UKMO increase snow chance for Friday and disrupt part of the next low under a lingering Scandi by Sunday. GFS also reintroducing northern heights at T192. A good morning for coldies so far.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, the ECM has got out of the wrong side of bed this morning... It is the most progressive with pushing the Scandi block out of the way...

Here are the big 3 at 120 hours...

GFS: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.png

- Scandi high holding well

UKMO:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif

Less well but has potential

ECM:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif

Just a couple of hundred miles makes the difference!

Overall, a much more positive set this morning than last night... The GFS sticks us in some pretty cold air in FI - we are only a little way from -10 air from the northeast - all conjecture of course..

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...