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Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.


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This just highlights the importance of that ridge in the east Pacific, if that goes as it did in the 12hrs then the PV will just get shunted too quickly eastwards as the pattern will then flatten out across the central USA, this run is more in line with expectations and NCEP thoughts. The next point of contention is the Azores high, can it amplify enough to delay that ejection of upstream energy?

thats the MASSIVE questin NS, amplification and corrections timings. If these fall in place its a case of suck it n, see thereafter.
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Nearing the end of hi-res on the GFS 18z and a cool north-westerly flow has established in a set up that is very different to what was shown on the 12z, hence the uncertainty ahead!

Posted Image

Looks similar to the JMA:

Posted Image

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Considering the dire pub runs of recent days, that is a pretty decent effort there. Better ridging all round and close to delivering something at the end of high resolution. Also the cold air from the Scandi high is closer on this run, so maybe still hope there of something wintry at the end of the week.

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GFS 18z at +192 almost identical to the ECM mean at +192 and similarities to the JMA

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

But on the GFS as on the ECM mean it flattens, likely I think what will eventually follow on the JMA too if it went further. At +240 again similar. So a period of amplication before flattening out again looks likely, if it does amplify

 

Posted Image   Posted Image

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Stepping back from the hunt for cold, the model output on that run is eventful to say the least. What a mash up of a chart at 156 as the Battle Royale commences with the block.

post-7292-0-01064000-1390171696_thumb.pn

 

Frustrating output re: gratification for cold, not boring though.

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Yep, doesn't look quite as good to my untrained eye in comparison to the 12z, but it is still there

It's pretty much identical to be honest. It starts at almost exactly the same time just perhaps one frame's difference in terms of the peak of the warming. The important thing is that it's there and it's very strong, stronger than any warmings I have noticed so far

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It's pretty much identical to be honest. It starts at almost exactly the same time just perhaps one frame's difference in terms of the peak of the warming. The important thing is that it's there and it's very strong, stronger than any warmings I have noticed so far

 

My quest over the next couple of winters is to try and get a better understanding of the Strat. 

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It has often been traditional that the JMA only gets wheeled out when we are looking for solace in the models and it rarely seems to get considered in most model assessments. Therefore it is interesting to hear that it is very well respected by the MetO. If indeed it ends up being correct with its latest run, I imagine its popularity will quickly be enhanced!

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The short ENS for the 18z are interesting, as there is quite a bit of uncertainty between the 24th and the 26th, yet strangely, no matter what each ensemble shows in that time period, they all descend back down to -4/-5, which is rather comforting!

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=188&y=173 (South West England)

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=307&y=141 (South-East England)

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=278&y=1 (Northern England)

Edited by Joe Levy
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Surprised by lack of comments on GFS 18z, looks ok in high res with more waa towards Greenland before going flatter as it hits low res.

im surprised too blizzard, the 18z gfs was a darn site better than the 12z ,just goes to show how progressive the model is . 

 

interest lies between 144 and 168 for me on all the models because even though they all look similar at around 144 by the broad brush stroke divergencies and including `Shannon` have trouble with dealing with .

 

! . strat effects

2. heights over scandi

3. jet flow and strength

4. amplification of the pv

5. depth and strength of heights at the pole.

 

a lot of negativity on here earlier this evening based on what the output has come up with but that just sorts out the glass half full theorists..i think lol.

 

a big if at 168 gfs 18z is the high ridging north into Greenland ala JMa but have a feeling the models are going to toy with this idea , I really hope this comes off.

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The short ENS for the 18z are interesting, as there is quite a bit of uncertainty between the 24th and the 26th, yet strangely, no matter what each ensemble shows in that time period, they all descend back down to -4/-5, which is rather comforting!http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=188&y=173 (South West England)http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=307&y=141 (South-East England)http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=278&y=1 (Northern England)

Pretty good agreement toward the end which is odd?
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The short ENS for the 18z are interesting, as there is quite a bit of uncertainty between the 24th and the 26th, yet strangely, no matter what each ensemble shows in that time period, they all descend back down to -4/-5, which is rather comforting!

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=188&y=173 (South West England)

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=307&y=141 (South-East England)

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=278&y=1 (Northern England)

 

It is odd, but it means that there is more than one solution to a fairly similar outcome on the ground. Different paths, same destination Posted Image

ties in very nicely , ens showing a lot of scatter between 144 and 168...then settling down to a colder theme..the only way that can happen is by waa into Greenland ,

so in my book for the time being a straw to clutch...

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Surprised by lack of comments on GFS 18z, looks ok in high res with more waa towards Greenland before going flatter as it hits low res.

Is it possible people are getting "potential fatigue"?GFS seems to have been throwing up the odd run for weeks that shows promise around the T144 mark, but a promise that never materialises and it soon reverts back to the soul destroying (and annoying accurate) weather that we've been enduring for too long now!

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The short ENS for the 18z are interesting, as there is quite a bit of uncertainty between the 24th and the 26th, yet strangely, no matter what each ensemble shows in that time period, they all descend back down to -4/-5, which is rather comforting!

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=188&y=173 (South West England)

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=307&y=141 (South-East England)

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=278&y=1 (Northern England)

 

The ensemble mean shows why, agreement on a polar maritime flow from the NW for a time as the azores high ridges up, flattens out after that though

 

Posted Image

2 days later Posted Image

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Well the full ENS are out and the links from my previous post on the short ENS at the top of the page should now have converted to the full timescale. It is interesting how few members rise above the 0 degree line, suggesting that cool or cold is more likely at the moment. Nothing extremely cold, but we don't need deep cold, and again, it's the overall pattern that's crucial rather than the specifics. Currently, the pattern is not yielding cold weather for us in the visible time frames, but we shall see what the models look like in a few days time and whether that is still the case.

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