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Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire

No I think next weekend was / is supposed to be the crucial period as the scandi high and atlantic do battle and the expert view is for more of the same westerly weather with cool and mild spells for the next 4-6 weeks, the scandi high looks sadly just out of reach, close but not close enough which is why I have my feet on the ground tonight, just a reality check really.

So you really think the met outlook is zonal for 4-6 wks ? If you read Ian's post he stated the colder spells mean they could well mean continental air , plus even if he didn't say anything on that , just because the 16-30 dayer on the met sounds grim , I would never take note , because anything past 5 days is fickle and know model in the world can predict a forecast that far out , and they can and do change in the blink of an eye. I think it's good you have eased off the dramatic posts recently , but it'd be nice if you could be balanced for once. Back to the models .The gfs 18 is much slower in the Atlantic train , much more akin with the jma , and as the -AO is still evolving rest assured the models will chop and play around with different solutions over the next week , but the tide is turning , and feb looks the best month for cold and snow potential given the seasonal wave lengths , weaker vortex , slower jet (eventually ) and a freezing Europe .
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

C'mon Karl you're slightly misquoting here - see my post above. JH didnt even mention beyond this weekend.

it's along the lines of the latest met office update, no real ripples in the water, just average and occasionally mild, most unsettled to the northwest, drier and brighter at times for the south & east with frost and fog in the quieter spells. I'm not buying into the hype on here tonight.

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

A great GFS 18z (I'm up to +168, which is plenty far enough for me) finishing off a day of charts firmly showing that a cold spell for the end of the month is still VERY much still on.

 

Anybody who thinks the Atlantic powering in and us returning back to December-esque weather is some sort of foregone conclusion simply doesn't have a clue what they are talking about and I can only assume it is the frustration talking (I feel your pain). But we simply cannot ignore the NH profile which absolutely screams the 'P' word. Yes, a more developed Atlantic ridge at around D8 time would be nice but there is plenty of time for that improve. MJO looks like it may be coming alive at the right time, although still much model confliction about where it heads after an brief amplified stint in phase 6. 

 

In a perverse way I quite like having a good hemispheric setup in terms of potential (strong Arctic high / vortex under attack / robust block to our east) and the output showing us as dipping out. Awfully un-scientific I know but how many times have we seen this before with us in the firing line for cold only for it to transpire that the models were out in the finer detail and us stuck in a no-mans land or in the milder uppers. So with that warped logic, watch for last minute upgrades towards the end of the week. Posted Image The cold is coming...

 

 

.

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Posted
  • Location: Grays, Thurrock
  • Location: Grays, Thurrock

FWIW this is my forecast evolution for days 1-6. Based on ALL the model ensemble means & bias taken into consideration. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=0&carte=1&archive=0 S

O no the navgem is really good, we now have no chance of cold. It has never been correct.
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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

Exactly my point, the atlantic will sweep through and then it's rinse and repeat of the last few months but not as stormy.

 

What happened to your twin who use to post those BOOM BOOM charts ?? Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

What happened to your twin who use to post those BOOM BOOM charts ?? Posted Image

There is nothing worth booming, the scandi high is out of reach to do anything other than briefly hold up the atlantic express before the pattern is again flattened out.
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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

karl, no one thinks it wont in the short term. john hammond is just forecasting into the weekend.  does anyone here really think the atlantic wont get in by the end of the weekend ??  its what happens thereafter and we have to have some less cold days inbetween.

 

all the 18z needed was a jet streak as it descended into low res.  the run didnt stand a chance!!!

 

 

It always the same old story really... what happens after such and such then that period of time and it be the same again! Goodness things must be bad if ever so positive Frosty is downbeat! 

 

At least the 18Z is trying to let the cold air do some battle but it does somewhat delay the inevitable. Maybe today runs suggest the Azores high may not come into play as much but the trend has been pretty clear for the Atlantic to fire up and get stronger and people in the last few days have posted about the potential of a deep low pressure system heading our way and whilst this is not guranteed, its a lot more likely than anything significant in terms of cold and snowy weather!  

 

There is quite a bit of blocking on the model runs admittedly but unless the models show it actually influencing our weather not just flirtations here and there at 200+ hours then I'm afraid I'm not too interested. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hastings (Seafront)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Hastings (Seafront)

I think we have seen enough vortex disruption in the last couple of days modeling to show Atlantic dominance is now under threat.

 

Just taking the UK model as an example t144hrs

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014012012/UN144-21.GIF?20-18

and this is repeated on all the major runs.

 

So the real change to a more-AO pattern looks likely next week-we just need those heights in the right area to get the cold here.

The trend for a cut off low heading into Europe in the medium term as heights increase in the Arctic is clear to see.

 

This week the high to our east is clearly having an effect and is forcing the jet further se and stalling the fronts approaching from the Atlantic.-and we thought sometime ago it was going to sink by now.

 

Shows how things are changing.

 

The GEM supporting this too?

 

Through the whole run out to 240, at least 5 lows cross the Atlantic, hit the Scandi high and flatten. Need more of a NW/SE tilt for these to sink and give us more of the Easterlies we need.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php

 

I am interested in seeing whether or not the small low off Newfoundland in 240 will cross into Southern Europe by following the jet?

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Anything Extreme
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level

IMO there is reason to be more hopeful tonight for cold and snow lovers than at any other point during the winter so far. 

 

In the semi reliable time frame nearly the whole of the UK is (at least for a time) inside or hovering around that magic - 5 dam line.

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

I Expect some are going to see the first flakes of snow this Winter from this, assuming it doesn't change too much + 78 is probably just inside the reliable time frame.

 

The ECM is full of promise on the final frame and the linking of High Pressure over the Azores to Greenland is something that seems to be showing up on various runs on occasion over the past 5 days, so there's clearly the potential for this to come to pass.

 

Posted Image

 

What strikes me as interesting is the JMA model going for something similar...

 

Posted Image

 

The only model that has backed away from this outcome is the GFS OP, which was the first to pick up on it, and then ditched it a day or two later.

 

OK if it comes to pass like the ECM and JMA are hinting at, then IMO it could go either way, with a quick return to milder weather or something much tastier could develop from the sort of set up being shown by the JMA in particular. 

 

It would be nice to see just one decent cold spell this Winter.

 

So to sum up IMO we're finally entering Winter now, OK it's not the snowmageddon so many of us crave, but it's looking a darn site cooler than it has been thus far for most of us and even if the Atlantic does win out, we still have some cold North Westerly weather on the cards which for a few would deliver something wintry even for just a short while. .

 

Just s long as it doesn't bucket down with rain, I for one am fed up of turning up to work day after day like a drowned rat, it's not nice when one has 2 * 30 minute walks to get to work interspersed by a delayed or cancelled train journey and then having to repeat the process in the early evening in more of the same yucky rain.

 

That being said the weather will do as it pleases and I'd not be at all surprised to see the models back down entirely from a cool outlook into a mobile wet one again.

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Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl

There is nothing worth booming, the scandi high is out of reach to do anything other than briefly hold up the atlantic express before the pattern is again flattened out.

something to cheer you up Frosty

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Well, well around 50% of 18z ensembles bring in a brief Easterly flow at 96h some fairly weak but others stronger. That should certainly show up on the graphs as a lowering of 850's on the 24th and 25th compared to previous suits.

 

The vast majority not interested ion an Arctic high though which is rather odd since all the other models go for it. Most show this sort of thing which is in stark contrast to the other models next to it. So either they are wrong and should be taken with a large dose of salt or the other models are wrong. I think we have to go with the much higher Res of European operational's frankly but tomorrow morning will be interesting.

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )

It's ok folks, I've just re-routed the Prozac van from it's expected trip to the South of France to go to Wakefield West Yorkshire instead.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

London ens the coldest set since the easterly debacle and the failed dec northerly. Still a sizeable spread in week 2.

Interestingly, no strong indication of a berlin/warsaw easterly in the longer term.

Ec 32 due soon. Fwiw, not expecting anything different although we could get a fun control run.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Well, well around 50% of 18z ensembles bring in a brief Easterly flow at 96h some fairly weak but others stronger. That should certainly show up on the graphs as a lowering of 850's on the 24th and 25th compared to previous suits.

I am shocked at some of the members in there, some seriously good charts at just 4 days away with a much deeper low over southern Europe and the the Scandi block racing west to confront a very angry Atlantic.

A few brief showery easterlies along with many with some interesting set ups with cold continental and polar maritime air in the mix so there is a chance of something wintry.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington

No, quite rightly he didn't. He's my mentor and I can 100% assure you he's very much across the if/maybe's next week. But we are nowhere near going that far ahead yet in our on-air forecasts... nowhere near.

Thank you has most of us thought  everything still up in the air for the next week , never mind the next few months. i just find all scenarios being played out by the models  fascinating.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

I am shocked at some of the members in there, some seriously good charts at just 4 days away with a much deeper low over southern Europe and the the Scandi block racing west to confront a very angry Atlantic.

A few brief showery easterlies along with many with some interesting set ups with cold continental and polar maritime air in the mix so there is a chance of something wintry.

 

Here they are in graph form. SE and NW england

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=292&y=121&run=18&runpara=0&type=0&ext=1

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=237&y=39

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Droylsden, Manchester, 94 metres/308 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Dry/mild/warm/sunny/high pressure/no snow/no rain
  • Location: Droylsden, Manchester, 94 metres/308 feet ASL
Posted · Hidden by reef, January 21, 2014 - Complete wind up as usual
Hidden by reef, January 21, 2014 - Complete wind up as usual

Bartlett pressure out in FI

 

Posted Image

 

Mild uppers

 

Posted Image

 

But unfortunately they don't last

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
Posted (edited) · Hidden by reef, January 21, 2014 - Response to above
Hidden by reef, January 21, 2014 - Response to above

Bartlett pressure out in FI

 

Posted Image

 

Mild uppers

 

Posted Image

 

But unfortunately they don't last

 

Posted Image

 

 

Dunno about you, but I've had enough mild to last me twelve winters. So I don't value your post.

Especially when the ECM throws out a juicy Arctic High in the latter frames.. 

post-8895-0-48846900-1390260779_thumb.pn

 

 

P.S. I found a picture of you on the web:

post-8895-0-06478100-1390260800_thumb.pn

Edited by Backtrack
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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

GFS 18z ensembles are cold tonight except for the mild blip. Ive highlighted my interest in the ensembles for my area..

post-17320-0-46786200-1390262473_thumb.p

Edited by Panayiotis
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Karl, just to let you know, really enjoyed your efforts this winter man, chin up lad!

Cheers for that, I just don't see what all the hype was about tonight, the current models look very average on the whole with the real cold too far east, we get rain and a bit of wet hill snow. More flooding looks likely than anything else in the next 7-10 days.
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Posted
  • Location: North Leeds 130m ASL
  • Location: North Leeds 130m ASL

Cheers for that, I just don't see what all the hype was about tonight, the current models look very average on the whole with the real cold too far east, we get rain and a bit of wet hill snow. More flooding looks likely than anything else in the next 7-10 days.

That's actually one of your better / more realistic posts in a long while Karl ... i sit , i read , i analyse ... and then i laugh at the ups / downs and total randomness of some posts on this forum , too many people believe and swear by what their preferred model output is ... to be gospel !!  yet then 9 out of 10 times are dismayed that such output did not come to fruition , beggars belief Posted Image   take a cross model output ( as per METO ) and draw a likely average ... it kinda gets you the eventual outcome  Posted Image

Edited by mickpips
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