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Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.


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Don't know if it's reverse psychology frostyBut it's working keep it up mateLol

i'm just keeping it real mate, john hammond's forecast was very sobering, mild to win.

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Top post, there is nowhere near enough support from the current models for a cold spell, which is why the experts are not making any particular fuss, the scandi high is just out of reach to have any real influence as things stand tonight and the atlantic will probably push through next weekend and back to the drawing board we go.

next weekend is not where I'm seeing the potential for cold anyway. The Atlantic has to push through (well doesn't have to) but take a look at the JMA, the Atlantic still pushes through but it's what happens later as heights build to the north. Same with ECM. The amplification later together with the Arctic high is just what we need, the Atlantic needs to go through at one stage, hopefully NW-SE though. I think the reason for all this downbeat attitude tonight in here is because people are expecting the block to win later this week, not going to happen, let's hope for a transient snowfall and then concentrate on what happens later Edited by bradythemole
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Renewed heights to the north of Scandi, could form into a much stronger block, something to watch out for on this run...

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JMA has these heights but are much stronger and in a better location.

Edited by Panayiotis
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i'm just keeping it real mate, john hammond's forecast was very sobering, mild to win.

I understand mateBut it's starting to look betterPlus He might be wrong It's a very tough one to callShifts here and there may mean a better forecast tomorrow
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i'm just keeping it real mate, john hammond's forecast was very sobering, mild to win.

 

karl, no one thinks it wont in the short term. john hammond is just forecasting into the weekend.  does anyone here really think the atlantic wont get in by the end of the weekend ??  its what happens thereafter and we have to have some less cold days inbetween.

 

all the 18z needed was a jet streak as it descended into low res.  the run didnt stand a chance!!!

Edited by bluearmy
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Very JMA esk don't you think.......

 

I like the amplification upstream and it might of got close if it had modelled the Arctic heights anything like the other models but because it doesn't we don't get a strong link up and keep the next low at bay. So it  really could of been a very good run but for that rather important difference. Posted Image

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next weekend is not where I'm seeing the potential for cold anyway. The Atlantic has to push through, take a look at the JMA, the Atlantic still pushes through but it's what happens later as heights build to the north. Same with ECM.

No I think next weekend was / is supposed to be the crucial period as the scandi high and atlantic do battle and the expert view is for more of the same westerly weather with cool and mild spells for the next 4-6 weeks, the scandi high looks sadly just out of reach, close but not close enough which is why I have my feet on the ground tonight, just a reality check really.

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Snowfall looks very limited/muted on Thursday based on high-res modelling (Euro4) and WBFL's from likes of UKMO-GM. Some snow in north, predominantly over 500m (mostly north of the border). No big issue expected from all this (UKMo suggest treating the PPN signal as bands of showers, some merging into longer spells of rain).

 

Well I don't have access to the models you do but the GFS looks quite interesting on Thursday for inland N.England/Scotland, Saturday could be a slider low.

 

I appreciate what your saying but I still feel like there is a fair bit of potential

 

Posted Image.

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No I think next weekend was / is supposed to be the crucial period as the scandi high and atlantic do battle and the expert view is for more of the same westerly weather with cool and mild spells for the next 4-6 weeks, the scandi high looks sadly just out of reach, close but not close enough which is why I have my feet on the ground tonight, just a reality check really.

I don't think it is, maybe the reason for the downbeat attitude in here tonight. The block is very unlikely to win later this week, so don't expect any big changes in this regard. The Atlantic will most likely push through and this isn't a problem as we are looking beyond that right now. Like I said above let's hope we get the amplification and the arctic high, if this happens, it shouldn't matter about the Atlantic pushing through as it may be a short affair Edited by bradythemole
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John hammond just saying on BBC that it looks like Mild will win out with wet and windy weather fronts moving in from the west GREAT.

"On Friday and into the weekend" was what he said.he didnt even mention next week........not on my TV anyway.
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Well I don't have access to the models you do but the GFS looks quite interesting on Thursday for inland N.England/Scotland, Saturday could be a slider low.

 

I appreciate what your saying but I still feel like there is a fair bit of potential

 

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When it comes to detail such as PPN type at those sort of ranges the MetO are light years ahead of a GFS PPN chart to be honest. Doesn't mean it can't happen but you would be better advised relying on the MetO forecast than those charts.

Edited by Mucka
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John hammond just saying on BBC that it looks like Mild will win out with wet and windy weather fronts moving in from the west GREAT.

do people actually read any of the thread before posting. we all know atlantic will over power the block  its after thats up for much debate.

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This could be a great run stratospherically with warming much more pronounced @264hrs compared to recent runs!

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Yes, been watching this over the last few days and it's been a constant feature.  Hopefully this won't get watered down as it comes into the reliable!?

Edited by Ice Day
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John hammond just saying on BBC that it looks like Mild will win out with wet and windy weather fronts moving in from the west GREAT.

Exactly my point, the atlantic will sweep through and then it's rinse and repeat of the last few months but not as stormy.

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Definitely the Azores looks to ridge northwards on the NCEP, but does it really get there? Personally sometime next week we will start to see what happens with reference to the pattern change and a block out towards the west/north west in this part of the hemishphere. I was looking at November 2010 and it took quite a while for the blocking to take hold, I guess because that was just synoptics and this time we are awaiting for the Polar Vortex to be obliterated by a SSW.

 

 

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The low resolution output paints a picture of low pressure across the UK, with no real change to the current setup.  The ensemble means don't really show anything but very similar weather to what we have now.  Jetstream practically running NW/SE across the UK.  It's a long route to prospects with no real definitve hope and I wouldn't get so happy yet with the models, it's probably a waiting game on the strat.

 

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Exactly my point, the atlantic will sweep through and then it's rinse and repeat of the last few months but not as stormy.

C'mon Karl you're slightly misquoting here - see my post above. JH didnt even mention beyond this weekend.
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