Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.

[Captain Shortwave]

Well well well

better trough disruption very early on and suddenly we end up with a south easterly

Cold 850's closer to the UK, on a collision course with the mild Atlantic air

Note the maxima for this friday, barely above freezing in central areas!!!

Edited January 20, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[winterof79]

And with that being as far as i want to look http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012018/gfsnh-1-90.png?18

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012018/gfsnh-0-96.png?18

 

I bid you all goodnight fellow model watchers.

[Continental Climate]

I am reading some of the posts on this forum and I fail to see where the optimism from some people is coming from none of the top three seem that great at 144 to me http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif!! Yes there is some blocking but also a rampant atlantic that chart screams westerly domination to me.

 

UKMO aint that much better http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif!! A football shaped low heading through the gin with a feeble looking high to the east.

 

GFS has some ridging attempt from the azores high but in effect this is a poor chart http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.png!! The atlantic is too strong.

 

Fergieweather seems content on a westerly outlook and I am certainly expecting this to happen.

 

I said a couple of weeks ago that cold would not start until the 21st/25th seems I was wildly optimistic on this score. I also said I firmly believed that a change to easterly sourced weather would happen this winter, I may have been wrong on this score as well.

 

In other words people lets KEEP IT REAL!!

[Great Plum]

On Friday, Easterly winds are so close, you can almost touch them!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn961.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn962.png - quite a difference in upper air temps from west to east...

Cold virtually everywhere...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn9617.png

[SMU]

Good stuff Ian ^^Ive heard Wikipedia are right now entering a term called maddenism in as a slang term for 'over inflate' or hyperbole ...

 

Even to the extent that it replaces Kentimeters on the snow scale-

 

For Example....

 

The snow depth here in Bluewater has reach 4 maddenisms ....

 

 

 

Anyway, I jest- the GFS brings in its BEST run of the week with a rather chunky correction west at 96

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012018/gfsnh-0-90.png?18

Remember yesterdays discussions around the 126 charts looking interesting ( well they are now 96) & looking good for some now.

 

GFS looks good everywhere at 96, with the Conus PNA pattern digging further south which will support the JMA evolution at 168....

 

S 

[shaky]

Bloody hell what an 18z gfs!!big changes early on!!as I sed earlier this is not done yet!!

[mulzy]

GFS 18z much slower in bringing in the Atlantic (not in yet as of t+96)

[bradymk]

GFS 18z shows the front on Friday only reaching the far south west before fizzling out as it hits the colder air. This likely to affect the whole outcome of run here. Impressive EC ens, consistency the key now. London plume later should be nice viewing

Edited January 20, 2014 by bradythemole

[Cloud 10]

Looking at the +72 hrs chart on the 18z gfs this evening and comparing with its prediction

from 3 days ago reveals a classic case of Scandi high mis-management.

 

Both charts for Thursday  coming.

 

tonight..  3 days ago..

Edited January 20, 2014 by Cloud 10

[karlos1983]

You are the expert ian, I think there is a lot of hopecasting going on in here tonight. I take notice of the met office above all and it just sounds like more of the same dross to me.

Well Frosty, for someone that posts GFS chart after GFS chart, it somewhat surprises me that you take what the met say as gold? Keep the faith mate, it ain't done yet!More to the point, the met are by no means saying winter is over, as stated by Ian. Edited January 20, 2014 by karlos1983

[Captain Shortwave]

Keep it real guys, it's close but no cigar. I'm actually angry at some of tonights posts.

Is a chart at day 4 keeping it real? If so I will take the 1-2C maximum for here 

The GFS does get milder air in for the weekend, but where can that low go, the northern hemisphere has been cut in half by a wall off warmer air

If nothing else, that arctic high does give the green lights for the Euro trough to fill it's boots. Also just 24-36 hours ago the models were sinking the Scandi high pretty uniformly, now it's remaining there with decent support. 

Edited January 20, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[carinthian]

GFS 18z much slower in bringing in the Atlantic (not in yet as of t+96)

Yes, a stronger ridge now developing ahead of the incoming Atlantic front. Will help stall eastward progress. Maybe a trend with cold air close to the east of Britain.

 C

[Mucka]

You are the expert ian, I think there is a lot of hopecasting going on in here tonight. I take notice of the met office above all and it just sounds like more of the same dross to me.

 

Blimey Frosty, you are coming across as a manic depressive. Up and down like the proverbial...

Let's keep our fingers crossed that JMA is onto something.

I find it odd that just as things are looking promising people suddenly start jumping ship. It may well not happen but there is always the whole of Feb and next year and the year after that, c'mon now. 

[shaky]

If its of any consolation!!the nae checking the progress of tomorrow's band of rain and it has slowed it down quite a bit compared to the 12z run earlier!!

Edited January 20, 2014 by shaky

[Jason M]

Good run in the short term with upgraded snow potential around the day 4 mark.

Unlikely to be other than wet slushy stuff at best I'd have thought as the ground temps are too warm and there is no embedded cold air. That said a decent chance of some slush and some may find the snow drought at an end :-)

[bluearmy]

I think that had it been not for the expected strengthening of the Jet flow next week giving extra oomph to the Atlantic push from the weekend the path to cold would have been very much easier given the synoptics to the NE.

 

indeed martin - the streak approaching at day 6 on the ecm ens mean is over 170 knots.  given that info, the fact that the block to the ne diverts it se should be telling us something. of course, many wont listen but the drums are beating more and more loudly.

 

side note is that in the extended period, the ecm ens still take the azores ridge anomoly towards the states but there is a bigger hang back towards iberia than recent runs. tbh, given whats going on over the arctic, i'm not too bothered about the extended period. any cold 'action' will probably be under way before then.

 

oh, those spreads i promised you :

 

mean on the left and spread on the right. the lighter areas are the amount that the ens vary from the mean. look at the shape of the spread and work out whether you think its showing an area of higher heights then the mean or lower ones. 

 

                shows a cluster of runs have the lower heights further west.

 

                shows that a cluster of runs take a discreet circulation into france and that there maybe a surprise in the morning.

 

             

 

           

 

         

 

i added the day 10 spread to show the depth of the troughing to our south away from the mean which is notable and a plus for cold. also, the spread in the atlantic sw of iceland. thats either a slow moving ridge at 540 dam or a slow moving low at 500 dam.  thing is, you don't get too many slow moving depressions at 500 dam! 

 

the clustering on the uppers takes the depression se across the uk at T168/T192 which presumably gives the likelihood of a lee easterly in its wake. 

 

of course, the ecm suite could be wrong, but given its relative continuity from previous runs, i am fairly comfortable with it.

Edited January 20, 2014 by bluearmy

[mountain shadow]

This to me is the key to any prolonged cold spell.

The ever present Canadian PV starts sending a portion Eastwards, If we can get some decent amplification behind the low and a full separation of this portion from the main vortex, I believe the Azores High will ridge in behind to connect with the Artic/Scandi High.

Amplification looks good here.

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140120/18/132/h500slp.png

[Mucka]

So hands up who is willing to back GFS 18z over the ECM and UKMO regarding the NH?

 

[Polar Maritime]

Better heights over Greenland, and the Atlantic slowing a little more against the block, this should pull the Low further South..

 

Will we get a link?

 

Edited January 20, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[mountain shadow]

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140120/18/144/h500slp.png

Heavy wintry showers pushing in from the West, certainly won't feel mild.

[Frosty.]

I am reading some of the posts on this forum and I fail to see where the optimism from some people is coming from none of the top three seem that great at 144 to me http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif!! Yes there is some blocking but also a rampant atlantic that chart screams westerly domination to me.

 

UKMO aint that much better http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif!! A football shaped low heading through the gin with a feeble looking high to the east.

 

GFS has some ridging attempt from the azores high but in effect this is a poor chart http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.png!! The atlantic is too strong.

 

Fergieweather seems content on a westerly outlook and I am certainly expecting this to happen.

 

I said a couple of weeks ago that cold would not start until the 21st/25th seems I was wildly optimistic on this score. I also said I firmly believed that a change to easterly sourced weather would happen this winter, I may have been wrong on this score as well.

 

In other words people lets KEEP IT REAL!!

Top post, there is nowhere near enough support from the current models for a cold spell, which is why the experts are not making any particular fuss, the scandi high is just out of reach to have any real influence as things stand tonight and the atlantic will probably push through next weekend and back to the drawing board we go.

Edited January 20, 2014 by Frosty.

[mountain shadow]

If the low undercuts looks what's arriving from the North East!

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140120/18/165/h850t850eu.png

[karlos1983]

GFS has paused for thought?

[Mucka]

Better heights over Greenland, and the Atlantic slowing a little more against the block, this should pull the Low further South..

 

Will we get a link?

 

 

Either way it is likely massively underplaying the Arctic high but at least it is more amplified upstream. I think this is one of those occasions when the ensembles can tell us more than Op runs with the caveat that GFS ensembles are still likely to struggle with the pattern in the NH - for that reason I'll be looking for those that more resemble the Euros out to 120/144 and seeing how they develop. I'll only view the rest as guidance if they trend largely away from an influential Arctic high.

 

It would be nice to see tomorrows ECM and GFS Op backs the JMA and at least the 18z is a stepping stone toward that.

[snowbob]

Don't know if it's reverse psychology frosty

But it's working keep it up mate

Lol