Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.

[Dancerwithwings]

Certainly a model (JMA) thats worth watching from now on imo.In case anyone missed the post by Ian F yesterday,its a model "held in high regard" by the Met office.His explanation as to why made a great deal of sense.Never bothered viewing it myself,but will now.

Worth noting for those that are giving themselves nervous breakdowns over various GFS runs which i believe is considered something of a joke.

And to all that missed Ians post, regarding the (JMA) http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79144-model-output-discussion-19th-january-2014-18z-onwards/#entry2900665

[pandit-scholar]

If I am right in T + 216 the PV is modelled to be falling apart around Greenland, which maybe something positive. However, although this is just one run, and things may change in the next run, I feel there is still plenty to be optimistic about this winter.

All these posts calling winter as being over are a bit premature in my opinion. February can still produce a lot of lying and sustained snowfall as February 1991 has proved. I know this as even though I was a young kid in 1991, and it was my first ever experience of snow, I still remember it well and have the photos to prove it.

Edited January 20, 2014 by pandit-scholar

[Tim Bland]

So the ECM adds to the dire afternoon of model runs although I'd bank the day 10 chart. All hope rests on the JMA then...got to keep the faith I suppose, I play the lottery and there isn't much chance on winning that!

Edited January 20, 2014 by Tim Bland

[Ali1977]

Another straw to clutch, infact 2. JMA and the ECM at 240 look good. We've been here before though, be nice to get all models agreeing that far out...

[TSNWK]

And to all that missed Ians post, regarding the (JMA) http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79144-model-output-discussion-19th-january-2014-18z-onwards/#entry2900665 [img=http://f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum//public/style_emoticons/default/good.gif.pagespeed.ce.REVKgma6uw.

We are also upstream for Japan, so who knows they might want to pay a little extra attention to our little part of the world and factor that into the programming.

[Captain Shortwave]

So the ECM adds to the dire afternoon of model runs. All hope rests on the JMA then...got to keep the faith I suppose, I play the lottery and there isn't much chance on winning that!

I'm guessing that you are ignoring the later frames of the ECM then

Edited January 20, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[supernova]

Lets hope today's JMA looks similar. 

 

ECM's turn now.

Thankfully it did….or better!

[nick sussex]

If the ECM output was early winter it would be okay, high to the ne forcing the jet se, not desperately cold but some wintriness. Okay to fill a bit of time whilst you wait for better synoptics to arrive, because of the lack of cold and snow thus far and time ticking on its a lesson in frustration because the high is well placed to the ne if you didn't have the PV from hell firing at you relentlessly.

 

Whilst you don't see a clearance of energy between troughing near the UK and the PV theres no chance of any decent cold, unless you have the pattern much further west which at this stage seems unlikely so that's really what it comes down to here.

 

Clearance=cold

 

Non-clearance=average to cool, okay for the mountains

 

This is the energy that is the decider here:

 

 

Whilst you have those low heights attached to low pressure near the UK then you won't be able to get any real cold uppers in, if that clears the Arctic high could extend further sw, then the next low ejected by the PV will be forced more se to the west of the UK.

 

If of course someone orders a huge westward correction you don't mind the phasing upstream because you'll be on the colder eastern flank of low pressure but that's very unlikely so as it stands its down to the clearance of energy.

 

The ECM at T240hrs finally gets a clearance but its still too close for comfort and you have to factor in that this only happens because the Arctic high remains strong, I wouldn't trust the ECM with that, indeed any model at that range so I think we need a much earlier clearance of energy.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Bristawl Si]

If i remember rightly the JMA bigged up the failed easterly that was showing up in the models 10 days or so ago; obviously it dropped it after a time because it never happened.

I'm following Meto this winter because their cautious approach has turned out correct....so far.

[weather eater]

Impressive 240hr chart from the ECM, not that I believe it will happen but some more like it over the coming days will be welcomed, Heights to the north and the PV takes a hike.

[cooling climate]

I must admit to being disappointed by the ECM t192 chart as I thought it was going

the same way as the JMA.Things certainly looking a lot more interesting from the

models with some real potential as we go through next week.

May soon have something to get excited about in the days ahead.

[TSNWK]

O please ECM not again at 240 with the whole Uk -6 uppers at least and under a lobe of the vortex.. It would be interesting at least.. What is also postive is that it starts at 168...

Edited January 20, 2014 by TSNWK

[SMU]

People The arctic high was picked up on the 16th by the ECM for Day 10

 

Its traversed the models until yesterday when it went AWOL a bit but now is back. A day behind Schedule.

 

We have to be patient on theses things- its about to enter T 144 tomorrow so until then theres no point in worrying about it.

 

ALL models have been to far East with to much energy-  Take the FAIL model for 12z.

DONT OPEN THEM IF YOUR A GFS FAN

 

Todays 96 chart-

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012012/gfsnh-0-96.png?12

 

& 3 days ago 168 chart for the same timeline

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfsnh-2014011712-0-168.png?12

 

That is a GFS EPIC FAIL

( incidentally ECM was much better but not perfect )

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/archives/2014011700/ECH1-168.GIF?00

 

& UKMO 144 2 days ago was poor as well.

 

 

So based on tonights ECM & ALL THE MODEL bias this week the JMA is correct. ( or that's the general assumption)

 

Expect the decent charts to start showing up tomorrow & into the afternoon for 144 on the 12's.

 

 

S

[IDO]

I'm guessing that you are ignoring the later frames of the ECM then

 

 

Hi

 

The run is better than what we have now, but there is no flow of cold uppers towards the UK:

 

192:  216:  240: 

 

Tick tock and all that; when we have HLB like that we need to start seeing the cold head our way.

 

Mind you anything after T168 is worthless based on recent ECM runs, but the background synoptics remain excellent, so a strong positive from the run tonight.

[Mucka]

People The arctic high was picked up on the 16th by the ECM for Day 10

 

Its traversed the models until yesterday when it went AWOL a bit but now is back. A day behind Schedule.

 

We have to be patient on theses things- its about to enter T 144 tomorrow so until then theres no point in worrying about it.

 

ALL models have been to far East with to much energy-  Take the FAIL model for 12z.

DONT OPEN THEM IF YOUR A GFS FAN

 

Todays 96 chart-

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012012/gfsnh-0-96.png?12

 

& 3 days ago 168 chart for the same timeline

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfsnh-2014011712-0-168.png?12

 

That is a GFS EPIC FAIL

( incidentally ECM was much better but not perfect )

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/archives/2014011700/ECH1-168.GIF?00

 

& UKMO 144 2 days ago was poor as well.

 

 

So based on tonights ECM & ALL THE MODEL bias this week the JMA is correct. ( or that's the general assumption)

 

Expect the decent charts to start showing up tomorrow & into the afternoon for 144 on the 12's.

 

 

S

 

I gotta love that logic - I'm in! 

[bluearmy]

cant attach the chart but the 850 spreads on ecm this morning showed the main clustering away from the mean supporting the depression sinking south in a very similar way to the jma 12z. there followed a push in of colder uppers from the east. the ens mean on uppers from ecm at days 9 and 10 widely around -4c/-5c with thicknesses in the low 530's or high 520's. thats across 50 runs so if you remove the progressive westerly runs (like yesterdays 12z ecm op) then what are you left with ?? a little perspective needed. like i said an hour ago. not much has changed. btw, i know its a day 10 op but liking the demise of the canadian vortex (again) and the arctic high being in a better place/axis. of course that will likely change but to come out with all the 'winter's over tosh' again .................. seriously ????

[SMU]

I gotta love that logic - I'm in! 

 

Snow logic.

[DeKust BergenaanZee]

I am new here, so I apologize beforehand if I don't use standard acronyms.  One remark about the models and their variability lately.  I noticed that more than a week ago, a number of models predicted an easterly flow and according to many, it did not happen.  Maybe that is true for the UK, but here on the westcoast of Holland, the wind has turned to the east last Friday and has stayed that way.

 

For me, over here at the coast, when a "zonal" tendency sets in, it is quite apparent. It means the windhowling at the front of my home ( which is facing south - south-west) and that has certainly be the case from the 3rd week of October until early Jan, with perhaps a lull in early December. Since early January things have settled down and become more subdued. Today was raw and one could feel that the winter is around the corner.

[Tim Bland]

Steve - if the JMA is correct why do the metoffice not buy it? I'm all for optimism but to say the professionals are wrong is a step too far IMO

[Cheese Rice]

I'd watch the period between Thursday and Saturday for some frontal snowfall potential. It's a very messy pictures but inland Northern England/Scotland could see something quite wintry depending on how the block to our NE holds.

Edited January 20, 2014 by Cheese Rice

[nick sussex]

cant attach the chart but the 850 spreads on ecm this morning showed the main clustering away from the mean supporting the depression sinking south in a very similar way to the jma 12z. there followed a push in of colder uppers from the east. the ens mean on uppers from ecm at days 9 and 10 widely around -4c/-5c with thicknesses in the low 530's or high 520's. thats across 50 runs so if you remove the progressive westerly runs (like yesterdays 12z ecm op) then what are you left with ?? a little perspective needed. like i said an hour ago. not much has changed. btw, i know its a day 10 op but liking the demise of the canadian vortex (again) and the arctic high being in a better place/axis. of course that will likely change but to come out with all the 'winter's over tosh' again .................. seriously ????

I don't think anyones said winters over. But you can understand people are getting a bit fed up now so its natural this will boil over at times.The JMA is two days faster with the clearance of that energy which would be better as it gives less time for yet another variable to pop up, the Arctic high is well positioned if the upstream pattern plays ball but we've been here with the ECM before this winter and for that reason you can understand some scepticism especially with its recent bias of overdoing blocking.

 

This would have been so much easier if the MJO signal hadn't sunk yet again, if the Azores high just retrogressed and delayed the next PV bomb it would have made things far less fraught.

[chris55]

Come on Arctic high please deliver something!!!!  I haven't even seen a single snowflake this winter, some lady luck would be most welcome!! The ingredients are kinda there (i could think of worse set ups) just need things to fall right for once!

 

 

At 240 you can see the potential in the synoptics.

 

Edited January 20, 2014 by chris55

[Gustywind]

Things shaping up quite nicely for early Feb if the ECM Northern hemisphere profile is correct, with plenty of high level blocking now developing.

We are still in the development stage though in terms of pattern change so can't see anything particularly wintry for rest of Jan.

We shouldn't really be surprised by this as January rarely if ever produces much significant wintriness, this time last year was good, but before that I can only really recall 2010 and 1996 as having decent snowy January's. February is far more likely to deliver as the pv starts to wane.

[Troubleatmill]

Getting a bit confused by the thread tonight? Why so many down beat about the scandi block not reaching us in the current set up, I thought that was prety much a given and agreed barring the odd run that had it flirting with us? Its the end of jan early feb that holds the interest now when its big bro enters the frame to mix it up a bit, and thats not changed??

Edited January 20, 2014 by Nicholas B

[sunnijim]

Steve - if the JMA is correct why do the metoffice not buy it? I'm all for optimism but to say the professionals are wrong is a step too far IMO

Where has it been said they don't buy it? We all know they use several models to help create forecasts,the JMA being one of them that they hold in high regard.You could assume they are watching it with interest but not basing their oulooks on it.Other models (those we can't see here) offering different solutions,so on balance they go with the more likely solution,although by far from certain.