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Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

Dont be afraid of the WESTPosted Image Posted Image

 

 

Posted Image

Looks impressive now, but no doubt it would be heavily modified  nearer the time. Still it's possible as there is an awful lot of cold air spilling out of Greenland into the North Atlantic.

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

Not a lot has changed in my eyes really, turning colder next week, would not say significantly colder and we get a reletively brief easterly flow and by the time it sets up properly for the sunshine and shower set up, it topples and we look to the West for our weather. 

 

Its interesting both the GFS and ECM has changed the position of the block though, its tending to sink further South instead of further East into Russia, shame the block is not projected to affect us for long because if it did then no doubt we would of been in a cold pattern for longer. Aslong there is some sort of height rises to our North there is always a chance but as others have said, the PV is quite strong over Canada this year and its certainly playing a role in our winter here.

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Posted
  • Location: Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Mild winters, wet & windy summers
  • Location: Hampshire

Dont be afraid of the WESTPosted Image Posted Image

 

 

Posted Image

Don't get sucked in, nothing good ever comes from the west if it's cold you are looking for.
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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

the pv is trying to join up with the Canadian vortex although weak heights near Greenland and the block still to our east I think the models beyond t144 are not sure.

 

as I said its a case of now casting and the jma is absolutely grade A++++++++ FANTASTIC IF THE JMA WAS CORRECT.

I still hold hopes its still very much knife edge still.

 

could also be some surprise model outputs this week.

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Huge change on the output on both the ukmo and ecm this afternoon.Guess that tells folk things still up in the air ete post the 120 hour markPosted Image

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

ridge to our ne is starting to pull west to our north.

and them arctic heights are strong very strong 1050mb nice this could well factor good for the month of feb which I might add my bet with net weather was a two day ban if we get anymore than a two week cold spell I take the ban because I wrote of feb all winter so far so looks like a 2 day ban.

Posted Image

 

im the most confident ive been all winter so far.

its looking good.

Edited by emotional rollercoaster
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Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

Don't get sucked in, nothing good ever comes from the west if it's cold you are looking for.

Your obviously young as January 87 brought copious amounts of snow from a westerly from a two week cold spell.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

A few small tweaks and ECM would be a very cold run.  Not sure about snow to low levels at 216 as Steve seems to be away from the NE or hills but who cares it is a much improved run and the 216 chart won't verify.

Still all to play for and the UK looks as though it will be the centre of the battle of the air masses which as we all know can mean some big snowfalls but also high risk of something less wintry the further S and W you go.

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Posted
  • Location: Upminster Bridge London Borough of Havering 40m above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Siberian
  • Location: Upminster Bridge London Borough of Havering 40m above sea level

Your obviously young as January 87 brought copious amounts of snow from a westerly from a two week cold spell.

I always remember that as a strong Easterly with a low over Italy.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

I'm really keen to hear from some of our more experienced members regards why the UKMO has taken ill and what needs to change to get us heading back towards deeper wintriness. Anyone?Also, for me at least:-Helpful....Discussion, analysis, experience, observation, generosity of knowledge, humour (where appropriate)Unhelpful....Childish sniping, anger, bitterness, one-liners that have nothing to do with models (or anything else) and vindictivenessGod alone knows what our respected mods must have removed if recent pages are what we're actually left with. Sadly I've very little weather knowledge compared to many on here but I am privileged to have the opportunity to learn from this forum whilst sharing the chase for interesting synoptics with like-minded enthusiasts BUT some of you need help, seriously, grow up. Rant over. ECM imminent. Can't wait.

 

Do I fit that description? Gulp...

 

I posted this before, but will summarise again. The predicted profile in the strat is not supportive of a proper "slider underneath a retrogressing scandy high" scenario: at least to my eye it isnt. The vortex segment over Canada, while a lot weaker than 3 weeks ago, is still firing too much energy across the atlantic in the shape of atlantic systems supported by the jet, and high pressure cannot quite get a hold let alone push west. The strat profile at 100hPa clearly shows an increase in the Canadian segment as we go through the week, and this is too much for the Scandy High to deal with. The NW/SE axis of these systems is helping keep it messy because pressure is trying to rise and some easterly continental air is certainly going to be dragged into the mix, but not quite enough. And the same is likely to go for the cold uppers on a westerly that some members are getting excited about. Anything like that is going to be either very wet snow or transient.

 

The good news as reported this morning is that the extended ECM strat run is finally signalling a contrast between falling zonal winds at all levels from 60 - 70 N while still seeing decent zonal wind speeds at 40 - 50. That screams of blocking in the 60 - 70N band and that would be very good news for us - if the block sets up in the right place! The vortex may finally properly collapse just in time for the last smallish window of proper winter.

Edited by Paul
Leave the digs at other members out please.
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Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND

UPPERS OF -6 FROM THE WEST = SNOW Posted Image

Don't get sucked in, nothing good ever comes from the west if it's cold you are looking for.

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Your obviously young as January 87 brought copious amounts of snow from a westerly from a two week cold spell.

Really????i must have missed that.The bitter spell i remember came via a siberian high!!

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos

Many more twists and turns, me thinks, over the next few days. Appears to be firming up on the UK as being the battleground.

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

the scandi block had a go but the thing that stands out the most is that the scandi block retreats and the heights start to lower our side of the pole which aids a more typical westerly.

but im not taking much notice its way out.

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A few small tweaks and ECM would be a very cold run.  Not sure about snow to low levels at 216 as Steve seems to be away from the NE or hills but who cares it is a much improved run and the 216 chart won't verify.

Still all to play for and the UK looks as though it will be the centre of the battle of the air masses which as we all know can mean some big snowfalls but also high risk of something less wintry the further S and W you go.

 

Not to sure about that, both tomorrow evening into Monday and at times next week, there are winds from the West or North West, with cold uppers, giving a decent chance of snow on quite a few occasions.

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Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

Really????i must have missed that.The bitter spell i remember came via a siberian high!!

Deary me I think I'm suffering from the early onset of Alzheimer's, your right I meant January 84.

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Posted
  • Location: East Anglia
  • Location: East Anglia

Looks impressive now, but no doubt it would be heavily modified  nearer the time. Still it's possible as there is an awful lot of cold air spilling out of Greenland into the North Atlantic.

Was just looking at the ECM on Metociel as it comes out a bit quicker than Wetter, have just swopped to Wetter and boy does it look better, but I have a feeling that you are right, the models do tend to downgrade the uppers in these situations as we approach zero hour, but hey maybe not this time.

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And your posting rights are gone in 3....2....1.---------------------------------------------------------Remember as the air across the east of Britain is influenced by the continent, you can still get incredible snow events with -3/4 uppers and marginal dew points. So in that sense, I'm very happy with the ECM

 That's in the short term as well.

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

Posted Image

but we see the azores sinking with low heights into Europe and so its not over by far.

Edited by emotional rollercoaster
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Not to sure about that, both tomorrow evening into Monday and at times next week, there are winds from the West or North West, with cold uppers, giving a decent chance of snow on quite a few occasions.

 

ECM is a snowy run, I'm not saying otherwise.

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Posted
  • Location: hertfordshire
  • Location: hertfordshire

Many parts of the UK could well be on the cusp of a very snowy pattern

setting up and with wave 2 activity increasing to our north with the

vortex becoming weaker and more extended we could very well see more

amplification in the pattern tracking the lows and fromts a little

further south bring many areas into the firing line.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne
  • Weather Preferences: Something different!
  • Location: Eastbourne

And your posting rights are gone in 3....2....1.---------------------------------------------------------Remember as the air across the east of Britain is influenced by the continent, you can still get incredible snow events with -3/4 uppers and marginal dew points. So in that sense, I'm very happy with the ECM.

For saying what I think? I suppose if I am banned that says it all. Just trying to learn about weather.....
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