Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.

[Mucka]

ECM 96h the best of the main 3 and pretty close to where I guess we will be taking all the output together.

 

[Joe Levy]

I am sure many will point out how much better the ECM 96 hours is, but there is one particular thing that caught my eye and that is the depth of cold over Eastern Europe which is being advected westwards. I doubt that it will reach us, but it could prove interesting in terms of how resilient the block is

[Long haul to mild]

I think coldies need to enjoy the next 6 days or so and hopefully most see some snow, it looks like back to normal temps from next weekend onwards . I can't see any route to the cold extending today, on any charts including the meto forecasts.

Considering the models can't nail down anything after T120 at the moment, I wouldn't be too sure about what is going to happen the week after!!

 

Models are often too quick with breaking down blocks to the NE and whilst we may well be attacked by the Atlantic, slider scenarios are very possible.

Edited January 25, 2014 by Long haul to mild

[cooling climate]

Oh surprise surprise lovely looking t96 from the ECM.Practically identical to

the t96 from the GFS with the lower 850's slightly delayed. The UKMO the odd

one out tonight but as I said it was just one run.

[Steady Easterly]

I'm really keen to hear from some of our more experienced members regards why the UKMO has taken ill and what needs to change to get us heading back towards deeper wintriness. Anyone?Also, for me at least:-Helpful....Discussion, analysis, experience, observation, generosity of knowledge, humour (where appropriate)Unhelpful....Childish sniping, anger, bitterness, one-liners that have nothing to do with models (or anything else) and vindictivenessGod alone knows what our respected mods must have removed if recent pages are what we're actually left with. Sadly I've very little weather knowledge and am loving the opportunity to learn on here and share the chase for interesting synoptics with like-minded enthusiasts but some of you need help, seriously, grow up. Rant over. ECM imminent.

Hello, i think nothing has really changed in the grand scheme etc and all that, we are looking at an increasingly cold outlook which is by its very nature a constantly evolving outlook, its a very complex situation which when you add on a scandanavian high and weakining vortex only adds to the complexity,there will be many more volatile and differing outputs to come im sure, but im also quite certain that few of them will be very mild.UKMET output recently has surprised me because it is usually doesnt do sensational, my best punt is early feb onwards for deep cold if its coming.

[Snow Grain]

No one on this forum should take any thing for granted when viewing the charts, they are only a guidance and rarely verify. All outputs should be taken with a large Pinch of salt to avoid disappointment. To be fair most in here knew that the upcoming cold would be watered down with each output. Currently the output is showing a return to a zonal pattern after a very brief cold, damp blip. The ECM will also show this to be the case this evening.

[Panayiotis]

I am sure many will point out how much better the ECM 96 hours is, but there is one particular thing that caught my eye and that is the depth of cold over Eastern Europe which is being advected westwards. I doubt that it will reach us, but it could prove interesting in terms of how resilient the block is

This is something which all of us should have in mind post 144hrs....

Edited January 25, 2014 by Panayiotis

[Joe Levy]

At 120 hours on the ECM, the uppers over the UK are colder and with an easterly flow and, I would imagine, low dewpoints, this would be an interesting day for many indeed, should it come to fruition

[TEITS]

ECM is wanting to bring some cold uppers through the Wash.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014012512/ECM0-120.GIF?25-0

[Gaz1985]

Snow accumulation up to 10cm for the Pennines and Welsh mountains over the course of around 12-18 hours ending Monday, even more over highland Scotland and possibly the Lakes.

 

 

 

Edited January 25, 2014 by Gaz1985

[Panayiotis]

Oohhhh chilly ECM @120hrs especially for the east:

The deeper the cold over us, the better chances of seeing snow from a battle ground between the Atlantic....

[gottolovethisweather]

ECM 96h the best of the main 3 and pretty close to where I guess we will be taking all the output together.

 

 

Much colder uppers engulfing almost the whole of Europe by then too, which by then will be Wednesday. A loose interpretation of the anticipated 850s on this run would suggest Monday could witness wet snow potential towards Wales and the SW to name but two areas. Tuesday slightly warmer but still cold, perhaps nearer average. Wednesday sees the start of the Easterly and better 850s nudging ever Westwards, snow possibilities more especially towards the East and Northeast by this time. Only a quick summary of where I think things stand up to midweek with this scenario seemingly nailed on now, in spite of individual run dramas, I maintain IT'S ON.

Edited January 25, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[Mucka]

ECM 120 has dragged the colder air over us because of the better profile at 96h but in all honesty this is about the worse it could of been from 96h to 120h with very little energy disrupting SE and if it was right to 96h then we could expect a better looking 120h chart next time around I reckon.

 

 

Might seem churlish given the 850's but if we want some longevity of the cold there is always room for an upgrade.

Edited January 25, 2014 by Mucka

[weather eater]

Oh surprise surprise lovely looking t96 from the ECM.Practically identical tothe t96 from the GFS with the lower 850's slightly delayed. The UKMO the oddone out tonight but as I said it was just one run.

Not bad but at 120hrs the Atlantic is waiting in the wings, the PV is so strong at the moment I can’t see what’s going to stop it from continuing to dominate our synoptic patterns, I wish it were otherwise 

[Yarmy]

ECM 12z T120 today:

 

 

ECM 12z T144 yesterday:

 

 

Block being underestimated again? I'll let you decide.

Edited January 25, 2014 by Yarmy

[Stuie]

Oh you little ripper.

[Long haul to mild]

No one on this forum should take any thing for granted when viewing the charts, they are only a guidance and rarely verify. All outputs should be taken with a large Pinch of salt to avoid disappointment. To be fair most in here knew that the upcoming cold would be watered down with each output. Currently the output is showing a return to a zonal pattern after a very brief cold, damp blip. The ECM will also show this to be the case this evening.

 

Please can we have "zonal" added to the swear filter?

 

Not because it's not the kind of weather we want to see, but because it is so often used in the wrong sense. There is nothing conventionally "zonal" (i.e. in the mild sense that most people understand it to mean) about the GFS tonight, at least in high res. UKMO doesn't show far enough ahead to be called "zonal", and ECM isn't properly out yet.

Edited January 25, 2014 by Long haul to mild

[pandit-scholar]

How would one guess! As soon as the UKMO back away the ECM upgrades. Therefore there is now record levels of uncertainty post 96 hours!

[Zak 92]

ECM is wanting to bring some cold uppers through the Wash.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014012512/ECM0-120.GIF?25-0

Good thats where I am

[Weather-history]

I wonder if ECM will blow up the low coming into the west again as it did during the last two operationals runs?

[Panayiotis]

JMA also underplaying the block:

[The Post-modern Winter]

No one on this forum should take any thing for granted when viewing the charts, they are only a guidance and rarely verify. All outputs should be taken with a large Pinch of salt to avoid disappointment. To be fair most in here knew that the upcoming cold would be watered down with each output. Currently the output is showing a return to a zonal pattern after a very brief cold, damp blip. The ECM will also show this to be the case this evening.

Edited January 25, 2014 by The Post-modern Winter

[radiohead]

I wonder if ECM will blow up the low coming into the west again as it did during the last two operationals runs?

 

Indeed.

 

[Downpour]

ECM looking decent tonight - big question as to what happens later in the week. Atlantic is the form horse.

[Biensie]

Oh you little ripper.

What is that little dog on the left?