Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.

[TSNWK]

Once again, Atlantic barrelling in, rolling in...call it what you like does NOT mean it will be mild and it does NOT mean there will be no wintry weather. No one is suggesting anything other than hopes of the kind of long, strong E'erly that UKMO were previously modelling have faded someone given it lastest update, this does not mean a 3000 mile Bermuda Blowtorch will be singeing peoples eyebrows off next week. Things need to be kept in context here, otherwise pointless bickering will ensue yet again.

Oh I disagree... I think that when people use phrases like " Atlantic barrelling in " they are clearly putting a bit of spin on the situation for whatever agenda... and I do not really have an issue with that when the Atlantic systems are barrelling in, however if the charts end of the week onwards verify then Atlantic is not barrelling in, it is stalling and disrupting as it bounces against the cold air to our east.. Edited January 25, 2014 by TSNWK

[Steady Easterly]

There are far too many wind up merchants in here whos only purpose is to create argument, this is the model output discussion thread, not the point scoring i was right thread,can you not just discuss the current output without personal jibes etc? get a grip its the weather, which will be long gone and forgotten for some other weather type very shortly, there is no need for many of the personal comments and frankly nasty posts,which quite often ruin this mostly excellent thread, you know who you are! and i repeat , get a grip and grow up because at the end of the day it really is not that important.

[Yarmy]

Indeed but that doesn’t make the GFS wrong all the time or the UKMO and ECM right and what do those figures apply to, the global view or just our neck of the woods because its perfectly possible for the ECM for instance to out score the GFS globally but just not on our patch, of course I’m not saying that’s the case but sometime statistics don’t tell the whole story.

 

The statement was that GFS has lead the way this winter. This is provably, objectively, and patently not true. We don't have the regional stats, but where it counts for us upstream in North America, the NCEP conversations that Nick posts have dismissed it over and over again. And it's their own model!

[Stuie]

Roll on 25 mins so we can get some ECM charts to discuss.

[Summer Sun]

GFS 8 day temperature anomaly is getting colder with out doubt

 

 

Normal temps left, expected temps right

 

[weather eater]

The statement was that GFS has lead the way this winter. This is provably, objectively, and patently not true. We don't have the regional stats, but where it counts for us upstream in North America, the NCEP conversations that Nick posts have dismissed it over and over again. And it's their own model!

Indeed but the point still stands and I have to say, so what if those were the words used its only the weather for lords sake, sometimes on this thread you would think its life and death and that certain members had not just commented on weather patterns but had instead threatened to kill somebody’s mother, how about a little live and let live., every time a cold pattern either implodes or looks like it may not be quite what was hoped for we get this nit picking and aggro and its not restricted to one side or the other.

[Snowman.]

Toys out the pram because UKMO back down?

 

Relax, it will be different tomorrow as will all the other runs.

 

Got laugh at the GFS low res CRANKS the PV to maximum even after taking such as a massive hit and continuing to take punches. 

[Stuie]

GFS 8 day temperature anomaly is getting colder with out doubt

 

 

Normal temps left, expected temps right

 

Looks much more favourable for coldies, especially for the SE. Liking this westward correction.

[The Eagle]

backed the UKMO with the usual told you so comments.

 

 

But we did tell you so

 

Ah no one wins from this situation. I'm just eager to see the UKMO 144 today not come to fruition. Thankfully there is no reason to read anymore in to it than the easterly this morning.

 

Looking to see if we can get a decent trend toward polar maritime conditions after the brief easterly incursion. GFS is quite good for coldies in the medium term because it distends north/south the LP attack from the west at 120 - instead of blowing it up re UKMO.

[Summer Sun]

Monday morning could start quite wintery for some

 

 

Potentially something wintery right down to the SE as we approach dawn

 

 

Attention then turns to Wednesday when the potential for snow at low levels increases again

 

 

Attention then turns to the west on Friday with a band of rain moving in and if it bumps into the cold air we could see some fairly widespread sleet and snow on its leading edge before turning back to rain at lower levels

 

Edited January 25, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Panayiotis]

UKMO 12z @144hrs

ECM 00Z @144hrs 

Look at the shape of the high in the Atlantic, they are very similar... and hopefully the ECM carries on the trend as we can another bite of the cherry if it occurs.....

[gottolovethisweather]

I'm sometimes think one or two are on the wind up in here, today being a good example when the UKMO was showing a fantastic output for cold and snow, then we had one or two saying that was out of kilter with the GFS and ECM, so it must be wrong. Now we have the UKMO showing the Atlantic bursting through and the GFS showing a cold, unsettled and potentially snowy end to next week and those one or two have now backed the UKMO with the usual told you so comments.

 

And those "told you so comments" from certain forum members are in fact irrelevant given this will eventually only be down to what Mother Nature decides to throw at us in the long run, anyhow. Speaking of throwing things at us, Paul et. al will be if us lot (me included) don't quickly get back on topic.

 

In order to make this somewhat relevant, I would suggest folk use the Fax Charts as these will provide best guidance from as early as Monday onwards, as always one should pay special attention to the 528DAM line when looking for snowfall potential. For now, that's all it is folks, WINTRY POTENTIAL, don't let anyone tell you any difference. Suffice to say, this coldie and others will back me up on this, the best spell of Winter proper is a coming to our shores from tomorrow onwards. Don't look at the specifics at surface level, use Fax Charts simply as guidance, listen to the wise words of a few and you won't go far wrong. Next week finally sees the beginnings of BATTLEGROUND UK and the CLASH OF THE AIRMASSES.

Edited January 25, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[The Eagle]

_{The Control shows how fine a line we are walking for snow next Friday (31st), this shows a warm sector moving in and mostly rain:}

 

gens-0-2-162.png  gens-0-0-162.png

 

At T162 on the GEFS 50:50 split at that time for zonal or slider.

 

Zonal mix: gens-2-1-162.png gens-3-1-162.png gens-13-1-162.png

 

gens-19-1-162.png

 

Slider mix:  gens-6-1-162.png gens-7-1-162.png gens-11-1-162.png

 

gens-14-1-162.png  gens-16-1-162.png

 

So still "potential".

 

 

Many of the "zonal" examples there are just as cold if not colder then the slider examples. Just saying. Interesting times ahead

Edited January 25, 2014 by The Eagle

[joggs]

This winter has basically been a winter where the polarvortex has been stuck in the wrong place for cold at our shores.Theres been big cold flooding south in north America and siberia whijst eur and alaska have been unfortunate.Hey weve had some fab winters in the last 6 years and maybe more to come given the sun,ocean cycles over the next 20/30 years.But it has been interesting seeing how the models handle situations and for that we are all on a learning curve.

[Summer Sun]

UKMO 850's all available now

 

Most of the east clips the coldest air at t120

 

 

At t144 less cold air is shown to move in from the south west

 

[Man With Beard]

Disappointing that UKMO may lose its title (in my eyes) as being the most consistent model for UK forecasts over the last two weeks! But it's worth comparing last night's T144 with tonight's T120 to show that though it's clearly changed its mind about north-eastern heights for now, it isn't a complete turn around; lower heights around Greenland and S Europe still in place, easterly still progged for England. 

 

 

Conclusion drawn from UKMO - easterly definitely an outlier option after T144.

Left to resolve - will the jet stream continue to dive SE leading to sliding lows, or will energy go north?

Over to ECM!

Edited January 25, 2014 by rjbw

[Mucka]

Whatever happens with the upcoming situation Atlantic V Block, I'm not seeing a return to the very mobile Westerly flow we saw much of December and first half of January occurring through February.

The signals are there for continued atempts fort further HLB and MLB to take hold and as the Vortex slowly weakens so the chances of blocking becoming established increase. I can't promise a cold February but it will be the most blocked month of the Winter by far IMO - just depends if it can set up favourably for a late winter cold spell.

 

Back to the here and now and I expect ECM to be better than this evenings UKMO and more in line with GFS but with better trough disruption SE so I am hoping it will go from zero to hero this evening just as UKMO went the opposite way. I will also be interested to see how JMA fairs as it has been fairly consistent with bringing cold uppers to the UK as well so far.

Edited January 25, 2014 by Mucka

[gottolovethisweather]

Monday morning could start quite wintery for some

 

 

Potentially something wintery right down to the SE as we approach dawn

 

 

Attention then turns to Wednesday when the potential for snow at low levels increases again

 

 

Attention then turns to the west on Friday with a band of rain moving in and if it bumps into the cold air we could see some fairly widespread sleet and snow on its leading edge before turning back to rain at lower levels

 

 

Absolutely spot on Gavin.  Precisely my take on things, no mildness on those charts I'm afraid.   Here's my status update from the front page, almost identical.

 

Aside from all that and I don't even know what part of FI we're looking at regarding the UKMO model, it reads as such. SNOW for quite a lot of the UK mainland during tomorrow at various stages. Potential for more during early part of Monday. Wednesday too and then Friday more especially the West and North by then. COLD WINTER is BACK.

 

Once the COLD air has moved on, I hope you get your dream of HP domination because we need it to arrive sometime soon, whatever my snow-loving perspective might suggest.

Edited January 25, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[bobbydog]

Monday morning could start quite wintery for some

 

 

Potentially something wintery right down to the SE as we approach dawn

 

 

Attention then turns to Wednesday when the potential for snow at low levels increases again

 

 

Attention then turns to the west on Friday with a band of rain moving in and if it bumps into the cold air we could see some fairly widespread sleet and snow on its leading edge before turning back to rain at lower levels

 

 

LOOK EVERYONE!  a 'mildie' posting cold charts!!!

 

or should i say- a weather enthusiast with a mild preference, posting charts and what they are actually showing.

 

you see- it is possible to post in the MOD thread without taking it out on other members if it doesn't show what you want to see.

 

 

thanks Gavin

[supernova]

I'm really keen to hear from some of our more experienced members regards why the UKMO has taken ill and what needs to change to get us heading back towards deeper wintriness. Anyone?Also, for me at least:-Helpful....Discussion, analysis, experience, observation, generosity of knowledge, humour (where appropriate)Unhelpful....Childish sniping, anger, bitterness, one-liners that have nothing to do with models (or anything else) and vindictivenessGod alone knows what our respected mods must have removed if recent pages are what we're actually left with. Sadly I've very little weather knowledge compared to many on here but I am privileged to have the opportunity to learn from this forum whilst sharing the chase for interesting synoptics with like-minded enthusiasts BUT some of you need help, seriously, grow up. Rant over. ECM imminent. Can't wait.

Edited January 25, 2014 by supernova

[cooling climate]

The UKMO is just one run and the model could very well be back to

where it was this morning come tomorrow. I would not be at all

surprised to see a correction west by the ECM tonight.Prepare to be

surprised. The ECM's extended range has a lot in common with the GFS.

The throwing of toys in this thread is really tiresome.

[goosey007]

 

Ouch...

UKMO +144

For me this is now an FI range for the UKMO. I cannot take a model that flip flops like that very seriously at all , I think we need to turn our attentions to the ECM !

[MR EXTREMES]

right this is this mornings ecm fi lets see if we can improve on this chart but this fi ecm chart does not look pretty but its going in the right direction.

[pdiddy]

Interesting how the ridge is squeezed westwards between 48 and 72 on the ECM...?

[weather eater]

I'm really keen to hear from some of our more experienced members regards why the UKMO has taken ill and what needs to change to get us heading back towards deeper wintriness. Anyone?

Also, for me at least:-

Helpful....

Discussion, analysis, experience, observation, generosity of knowledge, humour (where appropriate)

Unhelpful....

Childish sniping, anger, bitterness, one-liners that have nothing to do with models (or anything else) and vindictiveness

God alone knows what our respected mods must have removed if recent pages are what we're actually left with. Sadly I've very little weather knowledge and am loving the opportunity to learn on here and share the chase for interesting synoptics with like-minded enthusiasts but some of you need help, seriously, grow up. Rant over. ECM imminent.

It’s quite simple really at zero hours plus the models get progressively poorer and for our tiny island two or three hundred miles further north, south, east or west makes a huge difference to us, so even in the simple aspect of the positioning of weather patterns modelling is extremely difficult. I don’t think this will ever change, unpredictability is built in, it’s like trying to do a very long sum, you do the early calculations then look back to find the start numbers have changed, it happens to all of the models, all of the time. This of course is always going to be a problem on weather forum with hundreds of people during winter who are looking for a weather type that’s a rareity in our islands, especially south of the highlands.