Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.

[Man With Beard]

Well one milder run from UKMO is hardly a reason to draw conclusions, we know by now that consistency from models is the only way to make confident forecasts. The GFS has actually gone a little back towards the slider tonight and we still have the ECM.

However, if the UKMO does verify, hats off to the Met Office and also the 500 Hpa anomaly charts which have called for charts like this one for a while.

[Eskimo]

The inevitable downgrade from UKMO has arrived

 

 

Looks like the met were right with the Atlantic winning out later next week

Over the last 3 days we have seen some stunning UKMO output, today it has been rather poor. We all know you prefer mild weather, but one slightly poor UKMO run doesn't mean that the Atlantic will win. 

Remember it's 120 hours away in a very volatile situation? 

[Paul White.]

Too show the backtrack. To be fair he looks to have been in the right ignoring it unfortunately.

Wouldn't it be prudent to wait until this time next week to carry out the post Morton ? Who knows if today's 12z ukmo will verify over its 144 output from this morning it's quite annoying to read model back slapping before any verification has taken place!

[Man With Beard]

Bobbys view seems to have been vindicated on tonights output ao far. Unfortunately, too many got swept up in the frenzy. I was asked where the Atlantic was last night, tis comin'. Ukmo is now broadly in line, and the gfs continues to lead the way this winter. Kudoes.

Way, way, way too quick off the mark Draztik. In the same way that we don't call a cold spell when a cold run suddenly appears, neither do we call mild when a milder run suddenly appears. You cannot possibly make this claim when the ECM ens, GFS ens, JMA and GEM from this morning were different. Let's wait a bit eh?

[A.J]

How can anyone, or any model, be "correct" on Saturday 25th Jan for a weather day that's a week away?!

 

 

Well one milder run from UKMO is hardly a reason to draw conclusions, we know by now that consistency from models is the only way to make confident forecasts. The GFS has actually gone a little back towards the slider tonight and we still have the ECM.

However, if the UKMO does verify, hats off to the Met Office and also the 500 Hpa anomaly charts which have called for charts like this one for a while.

Two of the more saner posts of the past hour IMO....It always provides me with a wry smile when one model run goes against it's previous runs and send the model thread into anarchy....lol....Come on peeps, grab the prozac from the medicine tin gathering dust on the top shelf, take a deep breath, and relax....Most of us know how the outputs are calculated, a myriad of variables at play, you can pretty much guarantee that one model will upgrade cold, whilst another will simultaneously downgrade cold, it's what the weather is all about, if we could set in stone the weather for a week or so ahead then there woud be no need for threads such as this!!

[Summer Sun]

GEM out now at t144 its not far off GFS

 

Edited January 25, 2014 by Summer Sun

[shedhead]

Wouldn't it be prudent to wait until this time next week to carry out the post Morton ? Who knows if today's 12z ukmo will verify over its 144 output from this morning it's quite annoying to read model back slapping before any verification has taken place!

I think we should try not to confuse what you suggest above Paul with what has actually been said by others...same point to Bristle Boy too.  No one is suggesting that any given model can be declared correct with it's synoptic prediction 7 days away, but what can catagorically be said is UKMO has dropped it's strong E'erly for later next week on the 12 run and in so doing has joined in with the main consesus on a return to an Atlantic flow.  Now clearly things might well change again across subsequent runs, but for now that is how things actually stand.

Edited January 25, 2014 by shedhead

[IDO]

Yes lets hope the GFS 12z is wrong. The strat shows a split around D10-12 but by the end of the run:

 

 

Do not want this trend to continue as the strat is our main hope for something sustained re cold before Spring.

[beefy201]

My last post in this thread:  ... discussing the UKMO 00z... expected the UKMO 12z to backtrack because it didn't tie in the other models and signals, which it has. I know this makes me as popular as a leper but oh well.

well said bobby too many have been getting carried away in here I did warn people yesterday but got shot down

[LomondSnowstorm]

Bobbys view seems to have been vindicated on tonights output ao far. Unfortunately, too many got swept up in the frenzy. I was asked where the Atlantic was last night, tis comin'. Ukmo is now broadly in line, and the gfs continues to lead the way this winter. Kudoes.

Which GFS? The 12Z which has a battleground setup ? The 6Z that had the whole pattern hundreds of miles further east and brought in fairly 'standard' zonality? The ones yesterday which had shades of February 1996? (all of which are for timeframes which haven't happened yet.) Once again, just because one of the euros has corrected itself doesn't make the GFS automatically 'right', especially when countless previous GFS runs would've flattened the Scandi high completely and left us in a genuinely hopeless place for cold.Personally I think the GFS 12Z is broadly pretty decent- a cold trough sitting under a big Arctic high with the Siberian vortex backing west by +300 is pretty far from standard zonality IMO, and it's both below average for the UK and hemispherically very interesting as well.

[winterof79]

IF GFS is correct i will sit back and enjoy the Atlantic rolling back in as some put it,and also the snow falling whilst all the while reading on here that its cold rain.

[Bullseye]

SS you said that we shouldn't get hopes up when the UKMO was signalling cold because ECM and GFS weren't on board, now you say the mo were right with Atlantic winning out yet we had still got one week left AND GFS isnt seeing this? Confusing like always in here though I know which members to look out for. Can ECM gain some consistency, will be most interesting run of past days.

[terrier]

Think many of us got caught up in the wirlwind of the ukmo over the last 3 or 4 days. But hopefully now we have seen it come into line with the gfs and I think later the ECM we can hopefully get a trend of we're we are heading. I would expect the Atlantic to barrel in again as per the ukmo t144 chart which to be honest the met have been backing in there 6-15 day outlook. So after a brief flirt with something colder we seem to be getting the Atlantic back in which isn't great especially for flooded areas.

[Yarmy]

Bobbys view seems to have been vindicated on tonights output ao far. Unfortunately, too many got swept up in the frenzy. I was asked where the Atlantic was last night, tis comin'. Ukmo is now broadly in line, and the gfs continues to lead the way this winter. Kudoes.

 

 

Meanwhile back in the real world, the GFS trails the ECM/UKMO in a distant 3rd.

 

All that's really happened is that the UKMO's largely unsupported stellar Easterly has gone from the 12z (although the evolution from T120 to T144 looks remarkably quick). A shame, but great if you like schadenfreude, I suppose.

[UV-RAY]

I'm sometimes think one or two are on the wind up in here, today being a good example when the UKMO was showing a fantastic output for cold and snow, then we had one or two saying that was out of kilter with the GFS and ECM, so it must be wrong. Now we have the UKMO showing the Atlantic bursting through and the GFS showing a cold, unsettled and potentially snowy end to next week and those one or two have now backed the UKMO with the usual told you so comments.

[TSNWK]

What are all these Atlantic barreling in remarks about, personally I don't see it on either the GFS or UKMO. GFS has the Atlantic systems disrupting and sliding over the uk from around 144 to the middle of low res, so approx a week, UKMO I conceed looks poor if taken in isolation at 144, but I think again the energy from the north west should disrupt southeast..

cheers.

[weather eater]

Two of the more saner posts of the past hour IMO....It always provides me with a wry smile when one model run goes against it's previous runs and send the model thread into anarchy....lol....Come on peeps, grab the prozac from the medicine tin gathering dust on the top shelf, take a deep breath, and relax....Most of us know how the outputs are calculated, a myriad of variables at play, you can pretty much guarantee that one model will upgrade cold, whilst another will simultaneously downgrade cold, it's what the weather is all about, if we could set in stone the weather for a week or so ahead then there woud be no need for threads such as this!!

I think that would hold more weight if the UKMO had previously been well supported but in this instance it has just backtracked towards the other suites, as has the GEM, and that’s not a pretty picture. Nothing is of course set in stone, people seem to often make the mistake of thinking that the models have periods of zero evolution but that’s well wide of the mark. The real problem we have on this thread is a competitive streak and an awful lot of us have it to one degree or another, a little more tolerance for the fact that other people have different opinions and that they are entitled to air them would go a long way to helping the situation, but of course that may make the thread less entertaining than it is.

[Duane S.]

Ukmo raw returning a RELATIVELY poor output compared to some of its previous offerings, especially this mornings 00z. I don't think there will be many raised eyebrows as it was super fast with the evolution of the easterly.

Shame that in these cases the usual suspect mild lovers spend more time back slapping each other (over something that hasn't yet occurred ) than posting anything of any constructive nature.

[MR EXTREMES]

omg im really wondering if anyone is seeing the charts im seeing just like to add 100% my friend is a gritter and there at the ready even if its not deep cold from the east there is colder weather on its way from the east and from the west and the hemispheric changes are now happening im 99% certain that snow will fall this week around the uk and futher developments are expected.

 

if the ukmo and ecm continue with the todays output over the next couple of days then fair enough but its a case of forget fi its a case of now casting this week and anything can upgrade for snow and cold anytime.

 

or downgrade as we seen today but its not by far a done deal and they still show cold and snow will be forecast this week so its sit back and be happy with it as its better than back in December for some who and were are now cast questions. 

[shedhead]

What are all these Atlantic barreling in remarks about, personally I don't see it on either the GFS or UKMO. GFS has the Atlantic systems disrupting and sliding over the uk from around 144 to the middle of low res, so approx a week, UKMO I conceed looks poor if taken in isolation at 144, but I think again the energy from the north west should disrupt southeast..cheers.

Once again, Atlantic barrelling in, rolling in...call it what you like does NOT mean it will be mild and it does NOT mean there will be no wintry weather. No one is suggesting anything other than hopes of the kind of long, strong E'erly that UKMO were previously modelling have faded someone given it lastest update, this does not mean a 3000 mile Bermuda Blowtorch will be singeing peoples eyebrows off next week. Things need to be kept in context here, otherwise pointless bickering will ensue yet again.

[pdiddy]

Bobbys view seems to have been vindicated on tonights output ao far. Unfortunately, too many got swept up in the frenzy. I was asked where the Atlantic was last night, tis comin'. Ukmo is now broadly in line, and the gfs continues to lead the way this winter. Kudoes.

With the outcome of model predictions, we should consider "verification" rather than "vindication".  Even the Express will be correct every so often on the basis of the stopped watch being right twice per day.  Always better when posters consider why they believe a particular outcome is more/less likely.  I for one consider the blended solution (GFS too far East; UKMO low stalls over UK then drops southwards without enough Eastwards progression) to be the most likely.  As ever, we can simply wait and see.

[IDO]

_{The Control shows how fine a line we are walking for snow next Friday (31st), this shows a warm sector moving in and mostly rain:}

 

 

 

At T162 on the GEFS 50:50 split at that time for zonal or slider.

 

Zonal mix:   

 

 

 

Slider mix:    

 

 

 

So still "potential".

Edited January 25, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[weather eater]

Meanwhile back in the real world, the GFS trails the ECM/UKMO in a distant 3rd.

 

 

Indeed but that doesn’t make the GFS wrong all the time or the UKMO and ECM right and what do those figures apply to, the global view or just our neck of the woods because its perfectly possible for the ECM for instance to out score the GFS globally but just not on our patch, of course I’m not saying that’s the case but sometime statistics don’t tell the whole story.

[Mucka]

Just in case the signals weren't mixed enough GFS ensembles are its coldest set of the day out to end of hi res.

 

SE England

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=281&y=121&run=12&runpara=0&type=0&ext=1

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=285&y=123&run=12&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1

 

NW england

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=237&y=39

Edited January 25, 2014 by Mucka

[Duane S.]

Think many of us got caught up in the wirlwind of the ukmo over the last 3 or 4 days. But hopefully now we have seen it come into line with the gfs and I think later the ECM we can hopefully get a trend of we're we are heading. I would expect the Atlantic to barrel in again as per the ukmo t144 chart which to be honest the met have been backing in there 6-15 day outlook. So after a brief flirt with something colder we seem to be getting the Atlantic back in which isn't great especially for flooded areas.

'hopefully' ? Zonal May be your preference Terrier but for most it is not. Remarkable similarities between how you write and a certain poster no longer posting.