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Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.


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http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012512/gfsnh-0-90.png?12

 

I smell snow for the SE.

 

GFS a good 300 miles west @ the same timeframe & a bigger sweep west of the cold air.....

 

S

How big is your nose Steve?Is there room in it to smell Yorkshire tooPosted Image

 

Well thats it for me on the 12z GFS Major correction and plenty of sore heads at Exeter Posted Image

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012512/gfs-1-120.png?12  of course if the output gets colder i may just take a peek.

Edited by winterof79
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GFS modelling of the Canadian PV a small move toward UKMO but still needs a Southerly correction of the Jet upstream as the pattern is still much further East by 108h. (improvement noted)

Something between this mornings UKMO and this GFS run with better disruption of low pressure Se over the UK might be a fair bet at this stage for last day of January early February, The 31st Jan looks like it could be pencilled in as the best chance of snow falling to low levels proper this Winter thus far.

Edited by Mucka
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Usually we get a blow by blow, frame by frame commentary, why do I feel there's a pile of people out there biting their nails and talking in hushed voices, not bad in my book at 90hrs, better at 102hrs.

Watching the exciting weather today perhaps...squall line, thunderstorms and hail...or perhaps notPosted Image

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UKMO at 96, shaping up nicely

 

Posted Image

 

A move toward the other models with the sinking of the Scandi high SE unfortunately - the backtrack has begun,

Not saying it is bad BTW just moving away from its previous runs.

Edited by Mucka
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UKMO 120 hrs. Big swing. Atlantic coming through as per GFS/ECM.

 

Posted Image

 

Big difference is the progression out of Newfoundland. GFS progging this for days.

Edited by The Eagle
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So the GFS & UKMO move together- & meet at a halfway house-

The GFS a long west & the UKMO, not as good as the 00z.

 

Standard fair- with a slider scenario. Where will the snowline be....

 

the GFS is knocking at the door at 156- but the atlantic cant get through- This will look like the ECM 00z for cold..

Edited by Steve Murr
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ukmo implodes and now gfs actually looks better????you coudnt write it really could youPosted Image .See what ecm brings later but tbh the ukmo did look out of kilter with the other models imo

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So the ukmo falls in line with the gfs expect some kind of model consistency to appear now over next few days. Think any snow will be restricted to say Newcastle northwards with rest of us seeing a sleety rainy mix. Hats off to the gfs and ECM on this one. Though ukmo was too good to be true.

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Well isn't that just typical! Ukmo normally very consistent. I bet my bottom dollar that it wouldn't have backtracked if this was the other way round! That's a shame for us cold n snowy fans. There were some mega cold uppers too. Thanks to the annoying Canadian PV.

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A move toward the other models with the sinking of the Scandi high SE unfortunately - the backtrack has begun,

Not saying it is bad BTW just moving away from its previous runs.

 

Yes, very well spotted.  All went the shape of the pear at 120hrs

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I think people may be misreading the GFS- its going to be a stella run...

To be fair Steve on your earlier post you did say its 100%wrong in these set ups????

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UKMO 144 hrs yesterday versus 120 hrs today.

 

yesterday..Posted ImageUW144-21.gif  today..Posted ImageUW120-21.gif

I think whats happened here is that the gfs and ecm picked up that shortwave from newfoundland few days ago and the ukmo has clearly lagged behind on this!!so I would not say a backtrack it was just slow to pick that shortwave which it was always gona do.compare the 120 hour charts now of gfs and ukmo and they look broadly the same!!but ukmo very slow to pick up that shortwave which ahs made it look a little silly maybe!!
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