Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.

[UV-RAY]

As it stands quite a few could see snow falling during the coming week, with those further NE/E seeing the best prospects of lying snow come the end of the week. A real wintry mix for the UK, it would be nice to see some HP moving in to dry things up at some point in FI though.

[Stuie]

What is that little dog on the left?

That will be the zonal Terrier.

[weather eater]

How would one guess! As soon as the UKMO back away the ECM upgrades. Therefore there is now record levels of uncertainty post 96 hours!

I have to say looking at the ECM and UKMO charts at 120hrs there is hardly anything in it and at 144hrs on the ECM in comes the next low, I have a feeling that this evenings ECM will be similar to this mornings

[pandit-scholar]

Looks like I spoke too soon. Looks like the Scandinavian block now come under pressure from the low at T +144!

[Summer Sun]

ECM brings the next low in at t144

 

 

Comparing UKMO and ECM at t144

 

[bryan629]

This is something which all of us should have in mind post 144hrs....

finally!! amongst all the noise  Two voices of reasoning on here

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

LOL A one day Easterly! 144 shows the cold uppers getting shunted off east.

[bryan629]

finally!! amongst all the noise  Two voices of reasoning on here

 

 

At 120 hours on the ECM, the uppers over the UK are colder and with an easterly flow and, I would imagine, low dewpoints, this would be an interesting day for many indeed, should it come to fruition

[SMU]

So to quote my post this morning ( note the leaning away from the UKMO)

 

Morning-

 

Following the GFS 06z & building your opinions on that are akin to building a house out of a deck of playing cards & using a bowling ball for a chimney.

 

The GFS will be progressive, 100% it will be. not 99% or 98%-  100%. We will get an attack from the atlantic, because thats howe our weather works, however it anyone thinks that is going to bulldoze through like the GFS says they can think again.

 

UKMO is NOT the favoured solution today- ( deep cold ) nor is the progressive GFS.

 

The PF straddling the UK is the favoured solution, with rain in the SW & snow further East.

 

post that there is as much chance of cold coming from the N/ NE ( a la GEM / ECM ) as there is from the pony & trap GFS....

 

have a good day people-

 

S

 

 

Nowts changed tonight

 

ECM at 144 168 excellent -looks the perfect set up for deep snow for the midlands North..........

The SE on the periphery

 

note the max uppers -3 ..........

 

 

don't panic people- the UKMO is to deep with its evolution........

 

S

[Weather-history]

Indeed.

 

So perhaps ECM was onto something last night? UKMO 12z has gone for this and GEM goes for it as well somewhat.

[Summer Sun]

t168 has the low still in place but starting to ease

 

 

-4 850's covering most of England and wales

 

 

-5 850's in some places

 

[Mucka]

ECM 168 is still loaded with more potential but with just a little better disruption SE from 96h of the lows and this would of been an amazing run with much virtual dancing and celebration among the WO community.

 

Edited January 25, 2014 by Mucka

[Snow Grain]

image.jpg

Yes as I was saying the ECM confirming the shortness of the cool snap!

[radiohead]

So perhaps ECM was onto something last night? UKMO 12z has gone for this and GEM goes for it as well somewhat.

 

Something worth keeping an eye on for sure.

[weather eater]

So to quote my post this morning ( note the leaning away from the UKMO)

 

 

Nowts changed tonight

 

ECM at 144 168 excellent -looks the perfect set up for deep snow for the midlands North..........

The SE on the periphery

 

note the max uppers -3 ..........

 

 

don't panic people- the UKMO is to deep with its evolution........

 

S

Its got some promise but its too far away and it will change we both know it, how do you see it developing for the better, rather than the worse, good spot re the UKMO earlier by the way..

Edited January 25, 2014 by weather eater

[KyleHenry]

ECM 12z @ 120 hours

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=0&map=0&type=0&archive=0

Shows the -6 uppers kissing the East coast. Yes it's short lived but it's just the start our first go at snow. Then wintery showers to come in from the NW. It's okay dokay time in out,in out, shake it all about.

Edited January 25, 2014 by KyleHenry

[pandit-scholar]

Looks like the block doesn't survive the low barreling through on the ECM. Thus at the moment, if things play out this way, the earlier runs of the UKMO were at the extreme end. Odds on we may get a half way house. However it certainly won't be mild as before and many of us will get their first taste of winter!!

Edited January 25, 2014 by pandit-scholar

[The Post-modern Winter]

Yes as I was saying the ECM confirming the shortness of the cool snap!

So to quote my post this morning ( note the leaning away from the UKMO)  Nowts changed tonight ECM at 144 168 excellent -looks the perfect set up for deep snow for the midlands North..........The SE on the periphery note the max uppers -3 ..........  don't panic people- the UKMO is to deep with its evolution........ S

[Snowman31]

So to quote my post this morning ( note the leaning away from the UKMO)

 

 

Nowts changed tonight

 

ECM at 144 168 excellent -looks the perfect set up for deep snow for the midlands North..........

The SE on the periphery

 

note the max uppers -3 ..........

 

 

don't panic people- the UKMO is to deep with its evolution........

 

S

Just out of curiosity so I know for the future, what is the reason that it would be the midlands north, is it the wind direction?

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Yes ecm nowhere near as bad as ukmo thats for sure

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Yes as I was saying the ECM confirming the shortness of the cool snap!

 

Take it you are in the south? put your location in profile? ECM looks cold actually with wet snow chances south, proper snow north/300m

[Ali1977]

Lots of talk about the North and East looking favourable for winters conditions, however looking at 850s the south looks to have plenty of chance of snow next week

[snowice]

Dont be afraid of the WEST 

 

 

[conor123]

ECM much more favorable actually with more amplication thus mixing the mild upper's out meaning the 0+ 850hPa's never make inroads.

Edited January 25, 2014 by conor123

[Snow Grain]

Take it you are in the south? put your location in profile? ECM looks cold actually with wet snow chances south, proper snow north/300m

Brecon, with regard to the longevity I was talking about the Uk as a whole as I am not interested in imby!