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Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.

phil nw.

By phil nw.
in Forecast Model Discussion

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pandit-scholar Contributor

pandit-scholar

Posted
  • Location: North East Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, heatwaves & thunderstorms
  • Location: North East Essex
Posted

Slightly better from the GFS at T +180 hrs. A stronger Scandinavian block and cold uppers beginning to move towards UK. The question is, is it going to maintain this promise up until 144 hrs.

post-18804-0-23028300-1390665851_thumb.j

post-18804-0-40667000-1390665862_thumb.j

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winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted (edited)

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012512/gfsnh-0-90.png?12

 

I smell snow for the SE.

 

GFS a good 300 miles west @ the same timeframe & a bigger sweep west of the cold air.....

 

S

How big is your nose Steve?Is there room in it to smell Yorkshire tooPosted Image

 

Well thats it for me on the 12z GFS Major correction and plenty of sore heads at Exeter Posted Image

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012512/gfs-1-120.png?12  of course if the output gets colder i may just take a peek.

Edited by winterof79
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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted (edited)

GFS modelling of the Canadian PV a small move toward UKMO but still needs a Southerly correction of the Jet upstream as the pattern is still much further East by 108h. (improvement noted)

Something between this mornings UKMO and this GFS run with better disruption of low pressure Se over the UK might be a fair bet at this stage for last day of January early February, The 31st Jan looks like it could be pencilled in as the best chance of snow falling to low levels proper this Winter thus far.

Edited by Mucka
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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

UKMO at 96, shaping up nicely

 

Posted Image

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TonyH Experienced

TonyH

Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
Posted

Usually we get a blow by blow, frame by frame commentary, why do I feel there's a pile of people out there biting their nails and talking in hushed voices, not bad in my book at 90hrs, better at 102hrs.

Watching the exciting weather today perhaps...squall line, thunderstorms and hail...or perhaps notPosted Image

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted (edited)

UKMO at 96, shaping up nicely

 

Posted Image

 

A move toward the other models with the sinking of the Scandi high SE unfortunately - the backtrack has begun,

Not saying it is bad BTW just moving away from its previous runs.

Edited by Mucka
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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

GFS at 156 and a new feature, a low forming to the west of Ireland.  Could cause some fun and games later????

 

 

Posted Image

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The Eagle Seasoned

The Eagle

Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
Posted (edited)

UKMO 120 hrs. Big swing. Atlantic coming through as per GFS/ECM.

 

Posted Image

 

Big difference is the progression out of Newfoundland. GFS progging this for days.

Edited by The Eagle
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SMU Maestro

SMU

Posted
Posted (edited)

So the GFS & UKMO move together- & meet at a halfway house-

The GFS a long west & the UKMO, not as good as the 00z.

 

Standard fair- with a slider scenario. Where will the snowline be....

 

the GFS is knocking at the door at 156- but the atlantic cant get through- This will look like the ECM 00z for cold..

Edited by Steve Murr
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Radiating Dendrite Experienced

Radiating Dendrite

Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
Posted

UKMO at 120 has BACKTRACKED.

Oh dear....... It has the pattern further East and is similar to the ECM 00z.

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted

Oh well.. I'm thinking that the disappointment of the UKMO slight backtrack might be mitigated with a better GFS towards the end of its high res...

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted

ukmo implodes and now gfs actually looks better????you coudnt write it really could youPosted Image .See what ecm brings later but tbh the ukmo did look out of kilter with the other models imo

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snowbob Seasoned

snowbob

Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington
Posted (edited)

Am I reading this wrong

Ok the ukmo isn't as good as this morning but not really bad

Forget that

Oh dear

Edited by snowbob
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terrier Seasoned

terrier

Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire
Posted

So the ukmo falls in line with the gfs expect some kind of model consistency to appear now over next few days. Think any snow will be restricted to say Newcastle northwards with rest of us seeing a sleety rainy mix. Hats off to the gfs and ECM on this one. Though ukmo was too good to be true.

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ARNOTT ad Apprentice

ARNOTT ad

Posted
Posted

Well isn't that just typical! Ukmo normally very consistent. I bet my bottom dollar that it wouldn't have backtracked if this was the other way round! That's a shame for us cold n snowy fans. There were some mega cold uppers too. Thanks to the annoying Canadian PV.

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

A move toward the other models with the sinking of the Scandi high SE unfortunately - the backtrack has begun,

Not saying it is bad BTW just moving away from its previous runs.

 

Yes, very well spotted.  All went the shape of the pear at 120hrs

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted

I think people may be misreading the GFS- its going to be a stella run...

To be fair Steve on your earlier post you did say its 100%wrong in these set ups????

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chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
Posted

I think people may be misreading the GFS- its going to be a stella run...

I reckon so as well - look west and east - both great at T+174

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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted

UKMO 144 hrs yesterday versus 120 hrs today.

 

yesterday..Posted ImageUW144-21.gif  today..Posted ImageUW120-21.gif

I think whats happened here is that the gfs and ecm picked up that shortwave from newfoundland few days ago and the ukmo has clearly lagged behind on this!!so I would not say a backtrack it was just slow to pick that shortwave which it was always gona do.compare the 120 hour charts now of gfs and ukmo and they look broadly the same!!but ukmo very slow to pick up that shortwave which ahs made it look a little silly maybe!!
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Nick L Maestro

Nick L

Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Popular Post
Posted

So the ukmo falls in line with the gfs expect some kind of model consistency to appear now over next few days. Think any snow will be restricted to say Newcastle northwards with rest of us seeing a sleety rainy mix. Hats off to the gfs and ECM on this one. Though ukmo was too good to be true.

 

Once again, terrier, one of your posts baffle me. How on earth can you say hats off to any model when we're talking about something days away?!

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