Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.

[Tim Bland]

There isn't much if a difference in the modeling for next week Although to our tiny island the implications are huge. It is likely that mine of the major models are 'wrong' what we will see is a gradual middle ground being achieved as we tick closer to T0. It's what that middle ground is that is up for debate. If your a coldie in East Scotland then there's less to be worried about. If your in Cornwall it's squeaky bum time.

[karlos1983]

ECM op is a higher resolution throughout, inc the first 72 hours where ukmo is indeed running at a higher res than thereafter.

 

Hi ba, perhaps I'm being really dumb here, but that seems a conflicting statement, is the ECM higher res or the UKMO?

 

Cheers

 

EDIT: I get it now, was indeed being dumb.

Edited January 25, 2014 by karlos1983

[Cloud 10]

But is it possible to tell of the 2 which runs at the higher res for the 1st 72 hours.

UKMO:

 

These cards are made ​​from the raw data from the English model UKMO (UK Met Office) with a resolution of 1.25deg between 0h and 72h and 2.5deg between 96 and 144h. Refreshes the start to 5:10 ET 1710 an update takes about 30 minutes. Colored diodes near maturity can track the progress of the generation forecast maps UKMO model.

 

 

ECM:

 

These maps show the ECMWF forecast model (also called CEP) resolution 0.5 ° for 7/10 next days. Deterministic maps are updated upon publication of raw data to 7:10 p.m. ET 7:10, and the average and standard deviation maps of the set-are available around 21:30 and 9:30.The anomalies are calculated from the 1979-2009 climatology CFSR. These cards are intended for private non-commercial use

[Chris K]

If your in Cornwall it's squeaky bum time.

Yes..and if it isn't cold enough, rainfall will just continue to bring more problems to the SW with regards to flooding....What does looks pretty certain at this time is that we will be affected by Low Pressure systems rather than a settled spell for the foreseeable...just depends on what falls from it! Either way more water is involved at some point but more of a delay if it was the frozen variety.. Edited January 25, 2014 by Chris K

[snow mad]

Hi ba, perhaps I'm being really dumb here, but that seems a conflicting statement, is the ECM higher res or the UKMO?

 

Cheers

 

 The way I read it BA means the ECM is higher through out period.  The UKMO has its highest res upto 72 then its res drops off for the remainder! if that makes sense

[TSNWK]

UKMO:These cards are made ​​from the raw data from the English model UKMO (UK Met Office) with a resolution of 1.25deg between 0h and 72h and 2.5deg between 96 and 144h. Refreshes the start to 5:10 ET 1710 an update takes about 30 minutes. Colored diodes near maturity can track the progress of the generation forecast maps UKMO model.ECM:These maps show the ECMWF forecast model (also called CEP) resolution 0.5 ° for 7/10 next days. Deterministic maps are updated upon publication of raw data to 7:10 p.m. ET 7:10, and the average and standard deviation maps of the set-are available around 21:30 and 9:30.The anomalies are calculated from the 1979-2009 climatology CFSR. These cards are intended for private non-commercial use

Many thanks... So it looks like ECM is run at a higher res throughout its whole run than the 1st 72 hours UKMO-GM.. Shame... Edited January 25, 2014 by TSNWK

[shaky]

I think we need to get charts from three days ago and compare who was closest for today then we might get an idea?

[karlos1983]

I think we need to get charts from three days ago and compare who was closest for today then we might get an idea?

 

GFS 222nd 00z

UKMO 22nd 00z

 

ECM 22nd 00z

 

Reality

 

ECM today 00z

 

UKMO 1st, ECM a close 2nd, GFS a clear 3rd by the looks of it.

Edited January 25, 2014 by karlos1983

[winterof79]

I will take this as an hors d oeuvres

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2014/01/25/basis00/ukuk/prty/14012700_2500.gif

Edited January 25, 2014 by winterof79

[karlos1983]

I think we need to get charts from three days ago and compare who was closest for today then we might get an idea?

 

So no clearer then .....

[TSNWK]

All looks a little further west around 120 on the 06z GFS, little step towards the met ?

[shaky]

So no clearer then .....

its a blooming headache mate!!these charts are making me go crazy!!I swear if the ukmo is right its gona feel like hitting a century in a one day international with the crowd goin wild!!

[Catacol]

I am no more convinced of a cold pattern for next week looking at things this morning. Wont post the same reasons up yet again.

 

BUT feeling a good bit happier about the early February period. I was beginning to wonder over the last couple of days whether actually we were going to see little chance of the major blocking pattern that we all crave. S4Lancia has beaten me to it over in the strat thread, but to repost the 240h zonal wind chart for 4th Feb - here it is:

 

 

Quite easy from this chart to visualise what is happening here, with such a start shearing away of the main wind speeds from the top of the strat to the trop as you drop in latitude. In essence the forecast this morning is for zonal winds to move away from the 60N latitude at trop level and remain stronger at 40-50N.

 

This is a global average... so we must be careful in assuming that this means blocking where we are. The wave pattern in 2 weeks time may still dump us in a trough, or indeed on the warm and wet side of a trough. But the signal suggests a good opportunity for mid to high lat blocking as we move towards the end of the 1st week of Feb.

 

Tying in into the ECM trop chart at 240h you can see exactly what the signal is with a huge amount of blocking globally on this chart scattered all over the globe. This is a very messy chart. But this morning I would rate our chances at around 50% of getting blocking in the right place to see a properly cold feed in the period 5th Feb onwards.

 

 

Might all change tomorrow!

Edited January 25, 2014 by Catacol_Highlander

[pandit-scholar]

Some excellent charts eye watering charts this morning from the JMA, GEM and especially the UKMO. My only concern is the ECM is inconsistent and is still yet to come fully on board. The UKMO may have seen something and made one of its biggest coups (it does have some backing from the from the other two just mentioned), but I think we have to be still wary and wait a couple of days, before celebrating, until we get some more consistency.

Although I am cautiously optimistic an easterly will eventually arrive, my only concern is that the UKMO may be a little to quick. It is not too dissimilar from the Scandavian block that developed in 1991 and which eventually drew in uppers of -16 over South East England, from Eastern Europe, during the famous cold spell of that year. However I wasn't expecting this type of Scandinavian block so soon, and was expecting it in the second week of February at the earliest. Just for the coldies sake I hope the UKMO is right.

[The Eagle]

GFS is as solid as a rock.  Also has support from ECM op. Odds against UKMO/GEM. As much as I love these evolutions the fact the ECM doesn't support it is bitterly disappointing and onimous unfortunately.

Edited January 25, 2014 by The Eagle

[swfc]

gfs 6z goes off thr rails at 132 hrs im afraid!!ridging from the south west pushes in and stops the low moving south eastIts either totally wrong or the ukmo has broken down?

Edited January 25, 2014 by swfc

[karlos1983]

its a blooming headache mate!!these charts are making me go crazy!!I swear if the ukmo is right its gona feel like hitting a century in a one day international with the crowd goin wild!!

 

It will be some coup for sure, just not convinced personally. It's not like the GFS has just had a blip, it's be pushing slightly further east almost every run, which is a concern, especially as the ECM has dropped the UKMO signal somewhat as well.

 

Interesting nonetheless 

[IDO]

Yes at T144 the AH more of a player and the cold front on Friday morning is a non-event for snow for Scotland South:

 

 

 

A continuing trend from GFS.

[Tim Bland]

NAE shows showers turning wintry tommorow night http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=48&ZOOM=1&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

[damianslaw]

UKMO sticking with its suggestion of an easterly come the middle of the week, but again, it appears it on its own, but it is a highly regarded model and has been doing very well in recent weeks..

 

ECM following GFS in keeping the trough closer to the country as opposed to digging deeper into Europe, hence the next bout of energy off the vortex has a quick time in making its way across the atlantic thus preventing an easterly from setting up and we are back to the same situation with the trough languishing across the country but dropping SE still - so still a cool wintry outlook.

 

Longer term - ECM is an odd chart for 3 Feb, a bit of no-mans land, but importantly is showing heights building over the country and to our north, something we haven't seen for ages..

 

GFS toys with the above idea, but as ever steamrollers the atlantic back, however, it too shows strong northern blocking in its far reaches... I am last convinced with the GFS.

 

There continue to be strong signals that the mild atlantic fest we have endured for nearly 2 months may be about to be exchanged for a much colder albeit still unsettled outlook, with the chance of a possible very cold period as we enter the first part of February thanks to favourably positioned heights to our north.

 

By far this is the most interesting time for watching the models all winter so far.. its a tricky situation to get right, and its no wonder the likes of the METO forecast remain very cautious as there is no clear signal for how we may start February.

Edited January 25, 2014 by damianslaw

[IDO]

For Friday 7pm the 06z run uppers:    the 0z uppers: 

[Jason M]

gfs 6z goes off thr rails at 132 hrs im afraid!!ridging from the south west pushes in and stops the low moving south eastIts either totally wrong or the ukmo has broken down?

Its earlier than that tbh. Once the high pressure sets up more to our east over Russia its game over simply because there is no cold pool to draw on so we end up with an insipid easterly at day 5 which whilst chilly and grey cannot deliver.

Same as last night really its between days 2 & 3 that this is decided. Surely this cant go on beyond this evenings runs given the timeframe?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=72&mode=0

[Southern Storm]

GFS is as solid as a rock.  Also has support from ECM op. Odds against UKMO/GEM.

Apart from it looking vary different at 120, so I wouldn't call it rock solid, but either outcome is just as likely to happen, but I would give the the edge to UK, JMA as they have been the most consistent these last few days.

[Frosty.]

My opinion of the Ecm 00z ensemble mean is it eventually screams snow potential, especially the further north & east you are with a nw / se aligned jet, persistent high pressure to the north east and atlantic lows sliding southeast into the in situ cold pool which becomes entrenched across the uk with a big threat of snow, like I said, especially further north and higher up but the synoptics shown are a far cry from the NH modelling of the winter so far, it's a change to a more wintry outlook next week with snow, ice and frosts beginning to dominate the forecasts..Amen to that.. becoming cold / very cold and remaining unsettled with a high snow risk next week, from midweek onwards the risk looks considerable with E'ly winds and low pressure in control...I think we are slipping and sliding into a wintry spell.

Edited January 25, 2014 by Frosty.

[Long haul to mild]

GFS blows away the block in the medium term every run and ridges in the Azores High every time but is invariably wrong in these setups (see last winter).

Everyone seems to have totally forgotten that usually we are waiting for the UKMO to come on board to confirm a cold spell and everyone says "it won't be cold until the UKMO is in agreement". Now we have the UKMO saying cold, people are saying they don't believe it and its probably wrong!

Well I do believe it, although it would be nice to see ECM joining it. I care very little what GFS says,especially the 06z.