Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.

[ANYWEATHER]

Oh Dear, some of us are looking into too far too much detail , on who or where will get snow next week. Firstly the main concern is the flooding issues this weekend with again loads of rain in the forecast, then lets get the weekend out of the way , and maybe we will be able to see more clearly how cold it will get and who will see some snow!  Lets get the winds from the east first, then at least we have a chance of something wintry, all models at least for now point to some kind of easterly air flow, its mid winter, if we cant get a wintry spell from that direction at this time of year, then I will go to the top of our stairs!

[J10]

Yes - totally agree. I remain on the fence until I see a strat profile that supports more blocking, whether it be Scandy or Greeny, but the battle lines that are being drawn for at least 24 - 48 hours are truly knife edge situations. It would be foolish to discount anything at this stage.

 

Certainly is very exciting watching and analysing. Netflix have got nothing as good as this...

 

Doesn't Netflix have the day after tomorrow anymore?

 

I think the comments about ECM tonight show how good the others models have been tonight

 

any other time this winter, we would have been very happy with an ECM run like that.

[IDO]

I have mixed feelings on the UKMO T144 tonight. 

 

On the one hand, it looks amazing for cold with the Russian cold pool lined up towards us - as I suggested this morning, a 1991 rerun is not impossible from there (for those who are too young to remember, daytime maxes of -5C and many many inches of snow) - but what would the Azores High do next? Potentially it could simply fuel the High by injecting warmth up the western flank, but if the jet off Greenland/Canada is too strong then it might put pressure on the Azores High to sink the Scnadi too far south for any snow potential.

 

Still, just one run from one model, nothing will be settled at T144 until the exact exit of the low at T96/T120 is decided.

 

 

Yes I had the same interest so I checked the GEFS. None of the members were exact but the closest were:

 

  

 

Below are the T168 charts for the above:

 

  

 

And by T216:

 

  

 

Not too bad as a whole.

[bobbydog]

I think we should BAN tweet copy & pastes into the MOD thread....

 

Otherwise we are overloading the forum with conflicting opinion.

 

Scores on the doors:

 

JMA 10/10

UKMO 9/10

GEM 8/10

ECM 7/10

 

the rest- non starters, the NAVGEM pulled up Lame.

 

S

 

hi steve, just for clarification, what are we basing those scores on?

[Catacol]

Doesn't Netflix have the day after tomorrow anymore?

 

I think the comments about ECM tonight show how good the others models have been tonight

 

any other time this winter, we would have been very happy with an ECM run like that.

 

Yep - that's probably true... and it is also true to say that a direct cold easterly feed is often dry and very short of precipitation so when I sit at my computer, unconvinced at the uppers in terms of snow potential, I keep having to tell myself that at least in this marginal situation we wont end up cursing the cold for not bringing any snow. If it is cold enough if will DEFINITELY snow next week. Of that there is no doubt.

 

The question is - are we going to get the cold uppers we need for snow at low elevation? The trouble is - snow is a very hard thing to guarantee. I remember JH posting once that the variables for snow are up at around 12 whereas for rain it is 2 (or something like that...) so even if we got widespread uppers of -5 it is not a gimme that snow will fall. Snowking's post earlier on lapse rates was excellent in helping understand the importance of uppers in different pressure scenarios - thanks for that SK.

 

I think for me the problem is that the let downs we have had over the years - and I am 43 and have been on the lookout for snow ever since I can remember as a kid growing up in Glasgow - far outnumber the moments where it all clicks. I have lost count of the number of marginal scenarios or 144 hour dream charts that have gone pear shaped.

 

I am not going to get myself pumped up for this one until all the signals and all the models fall into line. ECM is the party pooper today to some degree, and despite Chio's post in the strat thread, I remain sceptical that the scandy high can hold sway next week. But I used to play the odd game of D and D when I was young... and at times the twenty sided dice came up with the "20" needed to fire the arrow through the eye of the troll and kill it stone dead. Maybe next week we can roll a 20...

[chionomaniac]

I think we should BAN tweet copy & pastes into the MOD thread....

 

 

 

S

I am thinking of putting this to the team as well. The problem with tweets is that they are condensed into a few words and can be often made as responses to other tweets or one of a series of tweets. Tweets are so short that they cannot often give a comprehensive view of what is occurring model wise and therefore can be easily misinterpreted. They are not first hand model discussion - more hearsay from other sources, and so at this point I would ask that those wishing to post copies of tweets refrain from doing so until the moderating team decide upon a policy.

 

Thanks.

Edited January 24, 2014 by chionomaniac

[Richie V]

hi steve, just for clarification, what are we basing those scores on?

Snow potential, what he wants to see, hopecasting, dunno?!

[Paul_1978]

I think we should BAN tweet copy & pastes into the MOD thread....Otherwise we are overloading the forum with conflicting opinion.

Steve, you're 100% my favourite poster here, but Paul Hudson's message is surely worthy of discussion. Ie why does he think snow mainly over the hills? What does he see in the output that we don't? Or vice versa?Edit: Chiono's post noted ;-) Edited January 24, 2014 by Paul_1978

[Bolton67]

hi steve, just for clarification, what are we basing those scores on?

tonight's 12z runs....

[fergieweather]

So does @EssexWeather have inside info from the Met? Didnt Ian say that the Met have some confidence in colder weather for next week?

This tweet is being investigated as I speak through UKMO. Further info will follow.

[Stuie]

I think we should BAN tweet copy & pastes into the MOD thread....

 

Otherwise we are overloading the forum with conflicting opinion.

 

Scores on the doors:

 

JMA 10/10

UKMO 9/10

GEM 8/10

ECM 7/10

 

the rest- non starters, the NAVGEM pulled up Lame.

 

S

Funny Steve ... and the GFS still broken.

 

Weekend has just started but kind of want to get to Sunday already to see how close or far we are from "Potential" (for coldies).

 

Really hope the block holds it`s nerve whilst heightening and starts to nudge West.

 

 

 

If it can then we could get stuck in a cold loop. Bring on low after low, we will need the precipitation for obvious reasons.

[SMU]

Scores based on best case scenario events for the whole of the UK- for instance the slider on the JMA is snow for everyone...

 

However of course locally you may choose to give the ECM 10/10

say you live in Derby - on the hills your looking 40cm plus.

 

but thats not to worry about now anyway.... lets get the 850s sorted @120 first-

UKMO 120 has updated now & is a peach-

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014012412/UW120-21.GIF?24-19

 

 

Can someone post the ECM 12z accumlated snowfall at 240 when it updates- will we see a 40cm in there....

 

S

[Boro Snow]

Steve, you're 100% my favourite poster here, but Paul Hudson's message is surely worthy of discussion. Ie why does he think snow mainly over the hills? What does he see in the output that we don't? Or vice versa?

But thats the point steve is trying to make, these tweets dont go into much detail because of the limit of 160 characters, statements are made but no evidence to back it up 

[SMU]

PS to paul1978 around the tweets- you never know who has integrity & who hasnt....

[bobbydog]

I'm no Columbo but i'd guess at snow potential.

 

 

Snow potential, what he wants to see, hopecasting, dunno?!

 

 

if thats the case then thats fine. just wondered.

however, verification potential would be a more realistic way of looking at the models.

the most likely outcome is more important than what we would like to see

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Steve, you're 100% my favourite poster here, but Paul Hudson's message is surely worthy of discussion. Ie why does he think snow mainly over the hills? What does he see in the output that we don't? Or vice versa?Edit: Chiono's post noted ;-)

snow over hills is always a safer bet than low level snow at the range the models are currently showing. Remember for low level snow we need dew points, 850's, 528 dam, isotherm etc all to say yes. Getting these more favourable over hillier areas are more straight forward. Edited January 24, 2014 by Grimsby Snow Lover

[Bristawl Si]

PS to paul1978 around the tweets- you never know who has integrity & who hasnt....

Exactly.I could set myself up as Bristleweather on twitter and post complete baloney on the weather.Trouble is there are too many people who believe absolutely everything they see on the net.

[Long haul to mild]

I sense a nervous edge in the thread tonight, no doubt because we have been so snow starved this winter. We finally stand on the verge of a possible significant cold spell, but there are so many variables that we need to fall into place first. Some models like the UKMO and the JMA all go very smoothly, whereas GFS and ECM have subtle differences early on that lead to a different mid term prognosis that is still favourable but generally messier.

When the winter has been like it has so far, it's easy to over analyse each individual model run and get jumpy about a few casually tossed off Tweets that don't tell the whole story.

That story is that it is getting colder and the signs are that Feb has a good chance of being very different to the previous two months. Next week could turn out to be fantastic or a bit of a damp squib, it's a little too early to call.

However, the trend is excellent and the details will change. It's hard to call for patience in a winter like this, but it is what is needed now.

I for one am very optimistic for all fans of cold and snow

[bobbydog]

Scores based on best case scenario events for the whole of the UK- for instance the slider on the JMA is snow for everyone...

 

However of course locally you may choose to give the ECM 10/10

say you live in Derby - on the hills your looking 40cm plus.

 

but thats not to worry about now anyway.... lets get the 850s sorted @120 first-

UKMO 120 has updated now & is a peach-

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014012412/UW120-21.GIF?24-19

 

 

Can someone post the ECM 12z accumlated snowfall at 240 when it updates- will we see a 40cm in there....

 

S

 

thanks steve, so snow potential then. what are your thoughts on verification potential?

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

Yes - totally agree. I remain on the fence until I see a strat profile that supports more blocking, whether it be Scandy or Greeny, but the battle lines that are being drawn for at least 24 - 48 hours are truly knife edge situations. It would be foolish to discount anything at this stage.

 

Certainly is very exciting watching and analysing. Netflix have got nothing as good as this...

 

Disagree, they have Lillehammer which is not only very funny but also provides a snow fix (for us that are extremely starved this Winter) as the majority of it is filmed in Norway! 

[Stuie]

Ok, yes FI but you have to pat the Pacific ridge on the back for keeping the PV from reforming somewhat. USA probably 8F not 8C next week so no back patting from them but good effort ridgey.

[legritter]

Lets enjoy where we sit at the moment ,we are looking at colder wintry conditions for many parts of our country next week,.and at this range many many features could turn up to give us coldies some fun .as far as model charts past 5/6 days i would say we have a very good chance to see some classic ones popping up over the coming weekend and early next week .we must remain patient gang .ok tonights ECM was not exactly like everyone was hoping for and i would say it painted a very messy picture with many marginal possibilitys but to me that is fine as marginals can deliver and the charts at the end will as many will be aware will be DIFFERENT Tomorrow .Tonights Fax 120hrs from Met office will be interesting ,i would say at this moment any return to westerly winds if indeed they totally break through will be a messy one ,in my books next week smells of Roses but with a few thorns thrown in .STellas are on ice ,Looks like Ian Fergusson is swapping his job as a weatherman to become a   Referee ,Thanks for your input Ian much appreciated ,cheers gang 

[bobbydog]

apparently, professional weather expert @bobbydog on twitter just tweeted "expect heavy disruptive snow next week with 40cm+ for the whole country"

 

#1962/63......

[Andrew snow hope]

apparently, professional weather expert @bobbydog on twitter just tweeted "expect heavy disruptive snow next week with 40cm+ for the whole country" #1962/63......

Bet we don't !!"

[bluearmy]

ens mean a bit better than the op T96/T144 re having the pattern a bit further west. by the end of the run, you could argue its a bit further north with the upper trough but that a long way off.