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Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Mostly Watford but 3 months of the year at Capestang 34310, France
  • Weather Preferences: Continental type climate with lots of sunshine with occasional storm
  • Location: Mostly Watford but 3 months of the year at Capestang 34310, France

I don't get the time to post on here much, but just wanted to say that i regularly read this thread and there are some fantastic members on this forum. It's without doubt the best forum there is. It's been a great day with regards to the models, most seem to be trending colder, (apart from the wretched GFS) and hopefully we will all get to see some of the magical white stuff that we all so crave over the next 7 - 10 days. We certainly deserve to see some, and surely even the mildies wouldn't begrudge us coldies a little snow as we've all suffered long enough with this mild wet horrible Atlantic onslaught.. Let's all hope we see some significant upgrades tomorrow. But in the meantime, whatever you do.... Do not tell your friends and family a cold/snowy spell is on it's way !!

Otherwise they will think you have been reading the Daily Express :)
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Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Exeter, Devon

I don't get the time to post on here much, but just wanted to say that i regularly read this thread and there are some fantastic members on this forum. It's without doubt the best forum there is.

 

It's been a great day with regards to the models, most seem to be trending colder, (apart from the wretched GFS) and hopefully we will all get to see some of the magical white stuff that we all so crave over the next 7 - 10 days. We certainly deserve to see some, and surely even the mildies wouldn't begrudge us coldies a little snow as we've all suffered long enough with this mild wet horrible Atlantic onslaught..

 

Let's all hope we see some significant upgrades tomorrow.

 

But in the meantime, whatever you do....

 

Do not tell your friends and family a cold/snowy spell is on it's way !!

I've told my family a heatwave is coming Posted Image just kidding... it's more fun to keep the information from them until a day or so before, so that I can nod my head in a serious manner and say "I warned you" even though I didn't...

Back on topic (I am the only one who went off it...) and for many in the Eastern counties of England and Scotland, there is a good chance of seeing something from this next week in the way on wintry weather, as well as a lower chance of flooding than elsewhere. I doubt this will change dramatically in the model output, and may perhaps improve. For the rest of us, the balance is much finer. We need to see westward corrections such as that of the ECM ens continue, and not just for cold 850s to advect westward, but also to bring drier air from the continent that might allow a respite for flood hit areas of the country, especially the Somerset levels where the situation is dire.

Edited by Joe Levy
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Posted
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow in winter Warm Sunny Summer
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales

Thank you for this, very interesting. In a region where wintry weather is exciting no matter what the extent of it is, this possibility is certainly appreciated! It will be interesting to see how this develops

Re Monday - yes, Dep Chief confirming likely easterly movement of wintry ppn into some southern-central areas with time (not expected disruptive for those districts at present), but current E4 PPN discrimination, albeit not yet to be taken too literally, highlights Bristol-B&NES- to S of M4 corridor; parts of Devon/SW Somerset etc at greatest risk of what could be disruptive snow/hail/ice issues (because potentially phasing with AM rush hr rather than because of amounts per se). I'm not allowed to copy the high-res charts; sorry... but it's an interesting signal.

Yes I would have thought so looking at the gm modified output IF posted shows 528 embedded air wrapped around it and coming in off the warmer Irish Sea could beef up the showers with snow hail sleet probably some rain for god measure could get some big cloud tops I would think...... Thunder snow anybody ;)
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

All models look to be on board at day 6.

 

Winter will arrive no later than Wednesday, plenty of cold air..

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

Edited by summer blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.

hi folks. Interesting day of model watching and the change to cold and snowy outcome is picking up pace. Interesting though the 12h ecmf i wouldn't just yet dost off the sledge we have seen charts from ecmf a few times before this winter only to come crashing down in the next output. Until gfs and the met come on bord i will take these ecmf with a pinch of salt. Lets waight for the 00h and 12h runs to c ware we stand. Sorry to be the voice of doom.

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Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland

120 pretty good but it looks like the Atlantic is going break through

 

Posted Image

 

 

But the 00z GEM is excellent.

Edited by The Eagle
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Posted
  • Location: Morden, Surrey.
  • Location: Morden, Surrey.

120 pretty good but it looks like the Atlantic is going break through

 

Posted Image

 

 

But the 00z GEM is excellent.

Even the last frame on the ukmo is not to shabby either. Let's hope the ECM follows suite or even throws out a better hand. Just a bit of consistency will be a step forward.
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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Looking okay at the moment for a rather cold spell. Big difference between nmm forecast and the Met office forecast for our area though. T144 shows the possibility of the Atlantic powering through or it may just signal a rinse and repeat job. GFS indicates not although does twitch towards another low diving into Europe in deep FI. So doesn't follow ECM this time.

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
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Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire

Very surprised to wake up to wet snow this far south this morning guys

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 78m asl
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 78m asl

Morning all,

Seems a 'steady as she goes' type of morning...

I am liking the ECM so far; the 144hr chart is great (see posts above)

Also likening the ECM 168 - -5s nearly everywhere even with the low approaching from the north west!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1682.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, warm sunny summers,
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire

GEM is the perfect evolution this morning, easterly with displaced azores high, atlantic truly stopped in its tracks and blocking eventually setting up over greenland, had to be bar none the charts of the winter thus far :)

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Next week continues to look wintery, even more than yesterday. Looking at the upper temps, the souths are often as cold as the Norths too. Maybe this can turn out to be a longer childish spell and not just a blip...

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Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset

Models showing this morning what to me has looked like the Obvious solution, all going for slider low's . Not to sure the Atlantic will break through as suggested going by all this morning's charts, that link up of height's at +96 hours is a lot stronger now than had been shown, PV is week also. I would say were close to Winter arriving next week . 

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

Another set of runs and still no continuity cross-model. A real pick and mix and I am sure members will have their favourites.

 

GEM powers down the Canadian vortex allowing an Atlantic ridge to pump up a GH:  post-14819-0-58922400-1390546489_thumb.p

 

GFS has a flatter pattern by T240:  post-14819-0-44504100-1390546593_thumb.p

 

ECM has a gentle NW to SE cool flow that is slacker than last night's run:  post-14819-0-16716500-1390546691_thumb.g

 

All relatively cool but with still no clear way forward it could go either way.

 

The GEFS highlight this and there are several clusters, all the above are there though the favourite is closer to ECM slacker flow. Temp wise they are much like ECM last night for London with a cool 5-7 days next week followed by a gradual rise in temp:

 

post-14819-0-30389000-1390546897_thumb.g

 

Nothing very cold or snowy for down south yet though a wintry mix maybe next week.

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Posted
  • Location: Croydon-ish
  • Location: Croydon-ish

I am very confused here - I am still trying to get to grips with the models but am struggling to see how everyone on here is seeing this very wintry weather but every forecast I have seen be it the NW or Met office or TWO there is nothing really to suggest this - why are they not at least showing something close to what is suggested here yet. Sorry I know not strictly model related but I am very confused having looked at Met office and thought a downgrade but then looks like an upgrade on here.

 

 

Thanks 

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Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire

Anything else past this point at t144 is just for trends remember

post-9095-0-35942700-1390546848_thumb.jp

And the trend is , a massive Russian high , an absolute beast , low pressure coming SSE across the uk , into cold air

post-9095-0-79459700-1390546989_thumb.jp

post-9095-0-14089100-1390547081_thumb.jp

Really nice wintry flavour this morning , nice UKMO aswell , and the signs as we move into feb are for hights to build northwards . Winter is about to arrive guys . . ..

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Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)

The mean 240hr GFS 500hpa chart is interesting, instead of the classic Icelandic low and WSWly flow over the UK, it has a saggy low, angled NW to SE with hints of undercutting.

Says to me, perhaps the Atlantic isn't going to simply blast through

Exciting times ahead for cold fans! those "sliding lows" are gonna drop se like a bobsleigh down an ice track! Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)

Posted Image does it really say 2010 on this image?

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