Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.

[Stuie]

Crikey, this would be very wet and possibly snowy for the lucky ones

The East would be certainly favourable at -4ish for something like freezing rain but not freezing rain. (Not saying it).

 

Edit: Forgot chart.

Edited January 23, 2014 by StuieW

[The PIT]

Deep FI T216  shows the ECM having a flip and now going for the under cut once again. I wonder if tomorrow morning GFS will flip to show the same. 

[tight isobar]

the ecm 12z run is cold for much of the uk. large swathes under slow moving low pressure with thicknesses sub 528, uppers -4/-7c and continental feed at times. how anyone can make a prediction of no snow or loads of snow defeats me. fwiw, i would say that if you live in the chilterns, i would be surprised if you couldnt make a snowman come the end of next week.

valid quotes and again with current modeled, I find myself bitting my bottom lip, its the best synoptics thus far this winter.and this will now doubt come down to 24 hr timings with some major nowcast, evaluations its up in the air in that regard. This is though I must say a situ where I think some MAYBE underestimating!

[Captain Shortwave]

JMA clears the low quicker than other models and brings in a decent easterly

Shame it then pushes the Scandi high out of the way like it was nothing

[KyleHenry]

These comments from NCEP might show that perhaps all is not as it seems:

 

FORECAST SPREAD DOES INCREASE BY NEXT MIDWEEK WITH

PACIFIC ENERGY TRYING TO WORK INTO THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE

AND EMBEDDED SYSTEM FLOW SPECIFICS DROPPING THROUGH CANADA TO THE

LEE OF THE RIDGE.  HOWEVER A RECENT TREND HAS BEEN THAT NEWER

MODEL AND ENSEMBLE RUNS HAVE BEEN FINDING WAYS OF MAINTAINING THE

RIDGE LONGER THAN PRIOR GUIDANCE.  THIS WOULD PROLONG THE

ANOMALOUSLY DRY PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WRN US

THIS SEASON...ALBEIT EVEN WITH SOME LIMITED PCPN WORKING INTO THE

PAC NW AND NRN ROCKIES.

Looking at all the models that are showing the upstream pattern in the Northern Hemisphere from 144 hours all the way out towards FI you got that feeling too. Until the PAC ridge sinks the Canadian Vortex can't track Eastwards which I do think it will. But it it will take longer to do so say 10-15 days. Then the AZ can be less influential and allow the cold Siberian/ continental uppers the move closer to the UK. I feel it's still a strong possibility just needs a little longer than most can probably hold out for. Fingers crossed.

[bluearmy]

its not a flip if you are watching the ens

this what i posted at 11:49 this morning - notice any correlation with the 12z op ?

ecm ens pattern is firming up on a continuation of the status quo. canadian vortex, alsakan ridge, scandi ridge, azores high which waxes and wanes with the next system that comes off the eastern seaboard in association with another burst from the vortex. the systems traversing the ridge and dropping into europe. each episode begins with the ens mean progging the track east of the uk and this then corrects slowly west so that the anomolys drop through the uk. we now see next week agreed upon and although the ops seemed to want to drive the jet ne, the ens are firming up on the next trough dropping in and the ops slowly catching on. so next weeks set up likely to be broadly repeated days 9 through 12. interestingly, the anomoly to follow this one seems to be able to come in on a flatter trajectory (not iceland se towards us) as the atlantic ridge seems to back west somewhat. should the same corrections apply due to the blocking being stronger we may well see some more obvious battleground charts cropping up soon in week 2.

Edited January 23, 2014 by bluearmy

[cooling climate]

The ECM t144 chart is a dream winter chart with a channel low and Scandinavian

high plus its January what more could you want... Ah yes cold air. You could

not make it up.

The t168 chart does offer something of a more wintry nature as does the t192

and beyond that it looks like weak heights to the north and the lows traveling

on a more southerly jet which could make for some interesting weather if we

can get some cold into the pattern.

[IDO]

Deep FI T216  shows the ECM having a flip and now going for the under cut once again. I wonder if tomorrow morning GFS will flip to show the same. 

 

 

I don't know if that is an undercut, more like brute force squeezing the block to the NE/E from west to east.

 

T192:   T240: 

 

Looks very wet for most. Very similar profile to the GEFS that followed that cluster.

 

By then the PV in Canada is being replenished from its Siberian brother: 

[Hotspur62]

Looking at latest ECM and the trend of all models I think it is a case of close but no cigar in terms of snow for most of UK (hillier areas being beneficiaries in terms of snow).Scandi block is trying hard to establish itself but I feel we need lower heights in say Northern Italy for example( which are not there on most recent runs) to help prop the High up and not slide away South Eastwards,which is what I expect to happen this time next week.I know things can change but we have been waiting all Winter for things to fall in place for us "coldies" and day by day chances of a cold spell are slowly diminishing. If only the UK was 300 miles further East and we would all be enjoying a bit of snow lol

[nick sussex]

I'd love to see the dew points for the ECM T144hrs chart, that could be some backedge snow away from windward coasts.I think a lot depends on what happens to the east/se as the low slowly sinks away.

 

Anyway the ECM tonight throws a curveball into proceedings especially as it begins to strengthen the Russian high again at T240hrs, the 192hrs chart is most interesting, it still looks close though, I think you'd need a bit more trough disruption and that would probably guarantee then a decent cold se undercut to deliver a snow event.

 

Still a lot of uncertainty going forward especially as the low track and orientation earlier will effect how much cold there is to tap into over mainland Europe.

 

if I was being picky I don't really like the ECM 144hrs chart, we want to see the low dropping se not south, its quite important here how this low sinks, we don't want any less cold air being advected nw into central Europe.

 

I'm sure there will be lots of variation on that low orientation and track when the ECM postage stamps come out a bit later.

Edited January 23, 2014 by nick sussex

[Stuie]

Dew points albeit via the GFS Nick would be battleground for the South but nailed for the North/Scotland.

[weather eater]

Mods can we split the thread into 3 parts, mild point of view, cold point of view and the pro's view ?

Stuff like that’s been tried before and it doesn’t really work, what I would say is no need for confusion, post 3 days or so is always open to increasing amounts of conjecturing, it’s not really a case of believing one person or another, its weather, it catches all of us out on a regular basis, listen to the arguments, put any bias for weather types out of your head and concentrate on those who you think know what they are talking about, irrespective of what their weather preference appears to be.

 

I recommend

 

Gibby for a good unbiased view

Ian Fergusson (fergieweather) with his finger on the pulse of the METO view

S. Murr if you want to know how synoptic patterns may develop

Nick Sussex, for much the same

John Holmes, ex METO no bull

Bluearmy another good reader of models

Shedhead and Draztik you know they never get sucked in by cold in FI

Nick F and Phil_nw more good readers

TEITS, loves the cold but a realist

Tamara excellent with the models

chionomaniac in touch with his inner Strat, at least he knows what’s going down in that area.

Lorenzo another whose posts I pay attention to

Edited January 23, 2014 by weather eater

[UV-RAY]

I'm slowly coming around to the fact we maybe looking at a pattern change to something colder next week, it does look messy though with quite a mixture of rain, sleet and snow. I'm not so sure on the MetO medium term forecast as I feel they are underplaying the potential for cold and snow in the 7-15 day timescale, a few more positives over these last 48 hours for cold now we just need to see these at +72 hours.

[Iceni]

My only comment since the overnights ( Excluding the 06z ) would be the consensus is to push the atlantic through- as per METO summary-

 

However the confidence in that outcome coming to fruition at day 8 today has weakened as already the models have swung towards a more powerful Scandi block.

 

As a result the ensembles are colder etc etc.

 

Theres 2 Scenarios here- but both are almost identical on the anomaly charts- as highlighted by Ian, Low pressure towards Southern Greenland / Iceland, Azores High, Euro trough & Scandi high.

 

Within these seemingly quasi-stationary features though is the little old island we live on & we sit right in the zone of error, so at day 9 a small model correction west by 500 miles will blanket the UK of White, while a small correction east will blanket the UK in wet....

 

Ignore the ensembles in the long term, until we see model unity around how much blocking gets North of the low at 120- The UKMO is the best solution-

with the plucky NAVGEM biting away like a little terrior as well

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=0&carte=1&archive=0

 

S

 

If the NAVGEM is anything like my Border Terrier, it's got a mind of its own but will chase something (deer are his favourite) for miles once he's got sight and scent of it.

 

GO NAVGEM!

[nick sussex]

I'm slowly coming around to the fact we maybe looking at a pattern change to something colder next week, it does look messy though with quite a mixture of rain, sleet and snow. I'm not so sure on the MetO medium term forecast as I feel they are underplaying the potential for cold and snow in the 7-15 day timescale, a few more positives over these last 48 hours for cold now we just need to see these at +72 hours.

Its a bit like waiting for your exam results if you're a coldie this evening, I can see how this can go well with some snow for the UK and a more extended wintry spell, however I can also see what can go wrong.

 

As is the way with this type of set up, small margins, I am heartened by those NCEP comments regarding the east Pacific ridge, of course this has been a pain so far in terms of keeping the PV over Canada but the different scenario now is that there solid agreement on the Arctic high making a decent appearance, we need that PV to hold long enough to get things sorted over the UK before it begins to spill eastwards, then theres  a chance of better trough disruption and of course then more snow.

[winterof79]

Deep FI T216  shows the ECM having a flip and now going for the under cut once again. I wonder if tomorrow morning GFS will flip to show the same. 

Steady on PIT....get the damp cloth out and give yourself a rub down

Lovely output today especially the further North you are today

.http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014012312/ECH0-168.GIF?23-0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014012312/J168-7.GIF?23-12

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014012312/UW144-7.GIF?23-18

GEFS still an issue http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-21-0-162.png?12

[A.J]

Stuff like that’s been tried before and it doesn’t really work, what I would say is no need for confusion, post 3 days or so is always open to increasing amounts of conjecturing, it’s not really a case of believing one person or another, its weather it catches all of us out on a regular basis, listen to the arguments, put any bias for weather types out of your head and concentrate on those who you think know what they are talking about, irrespective of what their weather preference appears to be.

 

I recommend

 

Gibby for a good unbiased view

Ian Fergusson (fergieweather) with his finger on the pulse of the METO view

S. Murr if you what to know how synoptic patterns may develop

Nick Sussex, for much the same John Holmes, ex METO no bull

Bluearmy another good reader of models

Shedhead and Draztik you know they never get sucked in by cold in FI

Nick F and Phil_nw more good readers

TEITS, loves the cold but a realist

Tamara excellent with the models

chionomaniac in touch with his inner Strat, at least he knows what’s going down in that area.

Lorenzo another whose posts I pay attention to

Tsk Tsk.....

You missed out the following...

 

Ian Brown, for comedy value of his mild ramps

OON, for sarcastic put downs (my hero)

Frosty, you post a spanish plume and he'll show you a beast from the east perturbation as he's that dedicated to the cause

[ANYWEATHER]

I'm slowly coming around to the fact we maybe looking at a pattern change to something colder next week, it does look messy though with quite a mixture of rain, sleet and snow. I'm not so sure on the MetO medium term forecast as I feel they are underplaying the potential for cold and snow in the 7-15 day timescale, a few more positives over these last 48 hours for cold now we just need to see these at +72 hours.

Yup, there will wintry weather next week albeit touch and go for lower levels but don't anybody even in SouthWestern areas be surprised to see a snowflake  But of course the primary concern is that of rainfall, and with heavy rain forecast in the next 3 days, no doubt the focus will be on  on Flooding

Edited January 23, 2014 by ANYWEATHER

[nick sussex]

Yup, there will wintry weather next week albeit touch and go for lower levels but don't anybody even in SouthWestern areas be surprised to see a snowflake  But of course the primary concern is that of rainfall, and with heavy rain forecast in the next 3 days, no doubt the focus will be on unfortunately on Flooding

True and especially all those poor children who had their Xmas ruined by the ridiculous amounts of rain and floods, the least we can do is find some snow for them so that they can go and make some snowmen and have some fun. That's my cure for all lifes ills, snow=happy people,  as long of course you don't have to suffer public transport!

[Mark Neal.]

ECM very interesting and yet another run which shows if we have trough disruption and a undercut somewhere could see a dumping of snow. Just looking a the ECM uppers as that trough is over UK looks good for snow In the north and uppers around -4c/-6c widely at times which good enough for snow? All conjecture of course but something for the coldies and snow lovers to keep watching.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Still looks like a fleeting cold snap before the Atlantic takes charge unfortunately. What we need is blocking over Greenland/Iceland for any longetivity otherwise the jet stream will eventually just run over any blocking over Scandi.

Edited January 23, 2014 by prolongedSnowLover

[winterof79]

I don't know if that is an undercut, more like brute force squeezing the block to the NE/E from west to east.

 

T192: ECM1-192 (5).gif  T240: ECM1-240 (7).gif

 

Looks very wet for most. Very similar profile to the GEFS that followed that cluster.

 

By then the PV in Canada is being replenished from its Siberian brother: ECH1-240 (5).gif

It looks very much on the cold side to me at 192z

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014012312/ECM0-192.GIF?23-0

Many with any moderate elevation would see snow.However it is too far out for specifics i suppose.

[chris55]

Slowly slowly we seem to be erring on the positive side with the block to the east versus the Atlantic push. No major cold uppers or anything yet but we are getting there. The ECM 192 is the chart of the day for me with the Atlantic energy tending to push south east rather than north west. The Atlantic bulldozer is far from nailed, and rather than looking at FI and working back, id say looking at 120/144 and working forwards is the way to go currently.

 

[Snowman.]

You would get some kind of blocking north later down the line but look at the mess here.

 

 

A running low on fuel PV battling a strengthening block, causing a mass amount of of little trough just flowing with the wind.

Edited January 23, 2014 by SN0WM4N

[chris55]

Still looks like a fleeting cold snap before the Atlantic takes charge unfortunately. What we need is a blocking over Greenland/Iceland for any longetivity otherwise the jet stream will eventually just run over any blocking over Scandi.

 

Its not a done deal IMO. we need to look out for changes in the medium term, the models are always rubbish at modelling a block to the east, and always want to collapse it in FI. Keep an eye out for improvements in the mid term, rather than looking right into FI for the eventual pattern. Im not saying anything is certain but tonights ECM is a good example of how trends can change and evolve in this set up, for the better lol.

Edited January 23, 2014 by chris55