Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.

[jimben]

06z T84

 

h500slp.png

 

1uksnowrisk.png

 

Snow probability only 50 - 50 is that why some members not frothing at these runs?

 

Improving - if thats what you want - for NE and Cleveland hills

 

......then the UK will come to a standstill on Tuesday as the LP slips

 

Still not impressed by any possibility of decent ppn totals - BUT if Blizzards are your thing at altitude.......

 

Yes - an interesting weekend to say the least - some excellent discussions on here making good reading - might be a late night or two?

 

Stay Safe

 

Ian

 

 

Looking good for some skiing on Raise in the not to distant future

[Iceaxecrampon]

Looking good for some skiing on Raise in the not to distant future

 

Yes! - If the skilift is still in one piece - not exactly Val d'isere!

 

(personally I used binliners)

 

Ian

[shedhead]

But it is still valid model discussion.

As is everything else within the model suite, but that tends to get forgotten, however often Paul or any other mods make the point.

 

On that note, IF the 06 is correct  it does't look like we have much of a gap early next week before the next lump of rain comes crashing in off of the Atlantic....whether it can come in at a more favourable angle to give some snow away from northern hills remains to be seen.

 

[Gibby]

Well I see I have come in for a bit of stick this morning but that's fine. Constructive criticism is fine and I welcome it because I certainly ain't no God in weather circles and can get it as wrong as the next man. I do take issue with the fact that someone mentioned I copy my reports from the Met Office outlooks which is totally wrong. Yes I read them but my reports are printed long before they are issued anyway. Anyway I have looked again at the output I compiled my report upon this morning and had I been rewriting it as of now I would of changed nothing and not surprising to me the updated Met Office mid term forecast leans closer to my reports way of thinking rather than some snowfest posts I have read in here. When it gets to the 12zs later if they show something more akin to widespread snowfall next week I will be first to report it but until I do and it falls within the 72-96hr timeframe I refuse to become excited by anything on offer at the moment.

 

The main reason for my thoughts is the strength of the Jet flow exiting the States which strengthens further over the coming days and this coupled with a very strong Azores High pressure area anchored in it's home base and the seemingly endless procession of Low pressure out of the States there is little wriggle room for anything to come from the East affecting anywhere other than the far NE for a time next week.

 

Incidentally, I do have some access to charts not released to the General Public but am not allowed to give info as to what and where they're from-sorry .

 

With regard to snow next week, personally I hope I'm wrong because contrary to what many people on here think I love snow and would like nothing more than to see a strong East flow with UK wide coverage but that looks unlikely for the reasons I've just mentioned.

 

Apologies to Mods for straying a little off topic but felt as a matter of respect I ought to respond to some of the issues raised to me this morning. Thanks.

Edited January 23, 2014 by Gibby

[tight isobar]

Love the terminology - backside dynamics? Does this mean they are talking out their a*** Nick? 

its regarding energy track, speed, and ultimately evolution.

[Heisenberg]

Just a quick question but dont the models usually "over do" the Atlantic coming up against a cold block?

 

I know the Meto are suggesting that the Atlantic will barrow through the cold block but arent they usually quite hard to shift or does it have to be more established?

 

Sorry if im being stupid, but still getting to grips with all of this stuff.

 

thanks

[Duane S.]

Thanks for your updates as ever, tis good to receive a privileged viewpoint on things in here. However, part of what you state above has me confused and it's the bit I've highlighted, can you explain things further when you get a moment. 

 

How can higher confidence be ascertained after a period of lower confidence beforehand. Maybe I'm being a bit of a nitwit but I don't get your statement.

 

Aside from all that, from what you've consistently suggested I believe you forsee a right ole mixture going forward with still some sort of battleground in the meantime but with the Atlantic expected to break through eventually.

 

Couldn't agree more. Of course, most of us can see how that could occur, maybe to the point of it even being the most likely outcome but to have "high confidence" of a "return to broadly zonal pattern, as seen so far this winter", plus after such a period of uncertainty, does seem more than a little bizarre to me.

 

I'd be very interested to know what in particular is driving that school of thought at the METO right now.

[ANYWEATHER]

Well I see I have come in for a bit of stick this morning but that's fine. Constructive criticism is fine and I welcome it because I certainly ain't no God in weather circles and can get it as wrong as the next man. I do take issue with the fact that someone mentioned I copy my reports from the Met Office outlooks which is totally wrong. Yes I read them but my reports are printed long before they are issued anyway. Anyway I have looked again at the output I compiled my report upon this morning and had I been rewriting it as of now I would of changed nothing and not surprising to me the updated Met Office mid term forecast leans closer to my reports way of thinking rather than some snowfest posts I have read in here. When it gets to the 12zs later if they show something more akin to widespread snowfall next week I will be first to report it but until I do and it falls within the 72-96hr timeframe I refuse to become excited by anything on offer at the moment.

 

The main reason for my thoughts is the strength of the Jet flow exiting the States which strengthens further over the coming days and this coupled with a very strong Azores High pressure area anchored in it's home base and the seemingly endless procession of Low pressure out of the States there is little wriggle room for anything to come from the East affecting anywhere other than the far NE for a time next week.

 

Incidentally, I do have some access to charts not released to the General Public but am not allowed to give info as to what and where they're from-sorry .

 

With regard to snow next week, personally I hope I'm wrong because contrary to what many people on here think I love snow and would like nothing more than to see a strong East flow with UK wide coverage but that looks unlikely for the reasons I've just mentioned.

 

Apologies to Mods for straying a little off topic but felt as a matter of respect I ought to respond to some of the issues raised to me this morning. Thanks.

Yes, Gibby, If you would have posted of a "snowmageddon "  scenario, you would have been super hero on here with-in moments  But thanks for a well balanced outlook, and yes indeed the Atlantic domination as much of a stronger signal  [at the moment] than anything bitterly cold from the East. There will be snow in the usual places over the days ahead, but for any low level snow especially for the the south, forget it for now.  . The main concern as you have mentioned along with others in the rainfall and secondly wind.....

[Frosty.]

I would think the southwest of the uk has no chance of anything wintry next week, just how I see it currently, I would think ongoing flooding will be the biggest concern down there, especially with sunday's torrential rain and early next week, good for ducks but that's all.

[Jason M]

Incoming .........

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=384&code=19&mode=0&carte=0

850s

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=384&code=19&mode=1&carte=0

From the GEFS. It would probably end up with a uk high on the next frame, but we can dream.....

[Mucka]

Well I see I have come in for a bit of stick this morning but that's fine. Constructive criticism is fine and I welcome it because I certainly ain't no God in weather circles and can get it as wrong as the next man. I do take issue with the fact that someone mentioned I copy my reports from the Met Office outlooks which is totally wrong. Yes I read them but my reports are printed long before they are issued anyway. Anyway I have looked again at the output I compiled my report upon this morning and had I been rewriting it as of now I would of changed nothing and not surprising to me the updated Met Office mid term forecast leans closer to my reports way of thinking rather than some snowfest posts I have read in here. When it gets to the 12zs later if they show something more akin to widespread snowfall next week I will be first to report it but until I do and it falls within the 72-96hr timeframe I refuse to become excited by anything on offer at the moment.

 

The main reason for my thoughts is the strength of the Jet flow exiting the States which strengthens further over the coming days and this coupled with a very strong Azores High pressure area anchored in it's home base and the seemingly endless procession of Low pressure out of the States there is little wriggle room for anything to come from the East affecting anywhere other than the far NE for a time next week.

 

Incidentally, I do have some access to charts not released to the General Public but am not allowed to give info as to what and where they're from-sorry .

 

With regard to snow next week, personally I hope I'm wrong because contrary to what many people on here think I love snow and would like nothing more than to see a strong East flow with UK wide coverage but that looks unlikely for the reasons I've just mentioned.

 

Apologies to Mods for straying a little off topic but felt as a matter of respect I ought to respond to some of the issues raised to me this morning. Thanks.

 

 

Hi Gibby, personally didn't respond to your post but I think some of the criticism was unfair but perhaps rather than your 7 day outlook which I can't see any issue with (Other than UKMO is perhaps more wintry than you suggest) it was your statement that the window of opportunity had closed further this morning for anything wintry that they were surprised with. I am a little surprised by that too but I don't see why you should be criticised for what may turn out to be valid opinion. 

As for this whole reporting on the rain thing I have never had a problem with it, my problem is the presumption that everyone else should discuss it too in their posts and if they don't then they are either not aware of it or ignoring it.

 

Everyone has their own style and I respect your posts and summaries but I get fierce when I feel people are trying to dictate to me (Or others) what style I should use or the specific part of the MO I should discuss. If people want to discuss the rainfall currently showing in the charts then good for them, get posting.

Also if people have a differing opinion on analysis then great, all part of the MO discussion.

Edited January 23, 2014 by Mucka

[Iceaxecrampon]

Just a quick question but dont the models usually "over do" the Atlantic coming up against a cold block?

 

I know the Meto are suggesting that the Atlantic will barrow through the cold block but arent they usually quite hard to shift or does it have to be more established?

 

Sorry if im being stupid, but still getting to grips with all of this stuff.

 

thanks

 

 

Usually the models are programmed to have the Atlantic as - (should I say it?)  "default"   - weather? and always seem to favour winning over and not stalling against any sort of cold Easterlies.

 

Ian

[festivalking]

I would think the southwest of the uk has no chance of anything wintry next week, just how I see it currently, I would think ongoing flooding will be the biggest concern down there, especially with sunday's torrential rain and early next week, good for ducks but that's all.

off topic but the higher parts of the Moor should see at least a wintery mix

[Whiteout74]

Usually the models are programmed to have the Atlantic as - (should I say it?)  "default"   - weather? and always seem to favour winning over and not stalling against any sort of cold Easterlies.

 

Ian

It also depends of course at which angle the attack is from, from the SW moving E/NE and we are stuffed, from the W moving E/SE (slider) more favourable.

[AWD]

I would think the southwest of the uk has no chance of anything wintry next week, just how I see it currently, I would think ongoing flooding will be the biggest concern down there, especially with sunday's torrential rain and early next week, good for ducks but that's all.

Would depend how you define wintry.

Looking at the GEFS for SW England, temps look like remaining a smidgen below average during the medium term.

Some models have been hinting at deep low pressure systems drifting over the north of the UK. These therefore introducing a notable rPm flow after.

It's in this cold north westerly flow that wintry showers of hail, sleet and wet snow could be seen over SW England, along with many other places in western England with the aid of evaporative cooling and nocturnal timing.

All speculative at this stage of course, but a similar pattern brought wintry showers to lowland Cornwall of all places in December.

I agree SW England is unlikely to see widespread settling snow, if any settling snow. But wintry weather isn't just about settling snow. An rPm airflow as described above can be just as wintry and as exciting for SW England at times.

[Man With Beard]

Well having a little time on my hands for once I'm trying to figure out what my forecast might be for T144 - I've searched charts, burst my brain ... and I just can't get to a forecast. I've looked at the main op runs for the last 36 hours and factored in what I think are their weaknesses in their suggested solutions - ECM tends to overdo mid-Atlantic amplification, so less likely than Azores and Scandi highs will link up to the extent they suggest and more chance that lows will continue to leak through the gap between them - GFS tends to sweep out eastern blocking too fast, so more chance that blocking to the NE will remain stronger and prevent the Atlantic going over the top to our north - UKMO just a tad too far west on northern blocking at times though not by much, so perhaps it has blocking too strong in the Greenland/Iceland area. 

 

Well I put all these ideas together and the closest GFS ensemble I came up with was member 11:

 

 

 

This is where it gets to by T168

 

 

and T192

 

 

 

If this were to be the outcome on D6, D7 and D8, I think this demonstrates the difficulty of making any forecasts at this range right now. The T192 chart might look good for snow but consider what is happening. You have an Azores High not far off introducing mild Atlantic air. You have low pressures still pouring off Canada. And Eastern blocking is trying to push frigid air back towards the Atlantic. It's an almighty tussle. Lines are so fine. It could be all snow, all rain, or maybe the Azores will link up with Scandi and stop the lows pushing through the middle of us. 

 

I think the only given is that Atlantic is not going to die down just yet - the big question is, where is it going to go??

Edited January 23, 2014 by rjbw

[Blake]

Incoming .........

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=384&code=19&mode=0&carte=0

850s

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=384&code=19&mode=1&carte=0

From the GEFS. It would probably end up with a uk high on the next frame, but we can dream.....

 

Those low 850's partly down to the small easterly jet over Scandi! The Jet to our west decreasing in strength and the Jet to the west looks to end up south of the UK a few days later. Of course, FI, not worth taking about but still, worth talking about

 

[shedhead]

Looking at the 06 ENS the Op never really drifts far from the mean within the high res and even in the low res part of the run most members band between about -5c and +2c. Therefore any suggestion of potential huge variations in possible outcomes for early Feb are not really franked here.

 

 

Edited January 23, 2014 by shedhead

[Frosty.]

off topic but the higher parts of the Moor should see at least a wintery mix

Good point, dartmoor to name but one very hilly location could have a covering.

[WhiteFox]

 

 

How can higher confidence be ascertained after a period of lower confidence beforehand. Maybe I'm being a bit of a nitwit but I don't get your statement.

 

 

I read it as meaning that the exact detail of the synoptics for the period in question are questionable and as such could have a large impact wrt wintry weather/rain or even slightly drier. Thereafter, the upper air profiles are in agreement wrt a return to Atlantic dominated weather. I don't think that the indeterminate detail of synoptics for next week affects confidence in the broader pattern thereafter.

Of course, I could be reading it totally wrong, in which case I could be talking backside dynamics...

[Frosty.]

Looking at the 06 ENS the Op never really drifts far from the mean within the high res and even in the low res part of the run most members band between about -5c and +2c. Therefore any suggestion of potential huge variations in possible outcomes for early Feb are not really franked here.

 

 

I thought it was the met office who had mentioned large variations in temps during feb which to me implies at least short arctic / polar maritime incursions sandwiched between the dull, wet and windy spells.

[shedhead]

All talk of battleground snow events are a tad premature imo and until we get a cold block in place over us I think thats how they will remain.  Here is a classic battleground snow set up for the south way back when, though I remember it well, it was a rip snorter...

 

 

 

Edited January 23, 2014 by shedhead

[Man With Beard]

All talk of battleground snow events are a tad premature imo and until we get a cold block in place over us I think thats how they will remain.  Here is a classic battleground snow set up for the south way back when, though I remember it well, it was a rip snorter...

 

 

 

This is a good point. Battleground scenarios do work best when the cold is already in place, imo. This needs to be factored in when we see charts that have delivered snow in the past - they may not deliver in the same way this time due to lack of cold in situ. Many charts we are seeing at the moment might fall into that category?

[Joe Levy]

I would think the southwest of the uk has no chance of anything wintry next week, just how I see it currently, I would think ongoing flooding will be the biggest concern down there, especially with sunday's torrential rain and early next week, good for ducks but that's all.

I disagree, especially if a northwesterly comes into play. Even in lowland Exeter we can still get a few flakes in the heavier showers in such setups. Also, remember that chart IF posted a few days ago showing snow showers across the South West, South Wales and the M4 corridor? I don't know what the current situation on that is, but to say that there is no chance is a bit extreme! It's hard to know what the precise chances are to be honest for anywhere. Even in favoured areas, some will miss out and some will do well.

[shedhead]

This is a good point. Battleground scenarios do work best when the cold is already in place, imo. This needs to be factored in when we see charts that have delivered snow in the past - they may not deliver in the same way this time due to lack of cold in situ. Many charts we are seeing at the moment might fall into that category?

Yes, it is a very important factor, if you already have the cold air in place, along with frozen ground and a frigid N Europe the difference is as stark as night and day.  If the synoptics across the last week had

been similar to the last week in 79, even what we might see next week would probably have resulted in a significant wintry spell, but with things as they are (and have been) it's all the more vital that we get the proper cold in situ overhead and not just sat c.500 miles to our northeast.  Bit like building a house actually, you can have the best building materials money can buy, but if your foundations are crapp then your house probably won't last very long... despite not looking too bad on the face of things. 

Edited January 23, 2014 by shedhead