Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.

[Mark Parsons]

Always a big intrest of myself on this forum, is the quite divided interpretation of model spread.and how thers at times MASS differences to what certain members are seeing. (Intresting)!?

It all comes down to positive or negative interpretation, in most cases it's easy to spin it either way! Anyway as Winter of 79 alluded to the block to our northeast is looking very similar to the build up to the Feb 78 battleground which buried most of SW England under 20 ft snowdrifts! 

[Bobd29]

has Gibby been looking at the same charts as me this morning? all I can see is an ever increasing chance of cold next week ..I just don't see that "the door has closed" !!!

Gibby interprets the models as they are, no hopecasting or emotional input and as such is a very valued contributor to this forum. Sometimes the models do flip at even short timeframes and then he appears wrong but his report is NOT his forecast, more often than not his repoorting of the short term is spot on.....keep going Gibby

[tight isobar]

It all comes down to positive or negative interpretation, in most cases it's easy to spin it either way! Anyway as Winter of 79 alluded to the block to our northeast is looking very similar to the build up to the Feb 78 battleground which buried most of SW England under 20 ft snowdrifts!

well theres similarities, but hold fire atm for such prognosis. !

[shedhead]

On a positive note the 06 suggests the block will remain weak enough and sufficiently far east to allow the rain on Sunday to clear through rather than stall...hope that evolution continues to be supported on subsequent runs, but it must be said totals across the SW do look worryingly high. 

 

 

[Andrew snow hope]

I think it's fair to say Gibby has been spot on so far this winter. Very enjoyable and realistic forecasts. Thank you Gibby please keep being a realist.

[Downpour]

Please bear in mind that Gibby is not as experienced as some others on here, he tends to copy the met office updates, in other words plays it safe. The charts are currently showing far more wintry potential than stated in his latest update.

I'm not sure that's fair at all – his work is his own. I agree that he does lean towards milder solutions, but that's probably because he knows that is the safer gambit in this country.

 

The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, nor the weather to the Atlantic. But that's the way to bet. 

[legritter]

It all comes down to positive or negative interpretation, in most cases it's easy to spin it either way! Anyway as Winter of 79 alluded to the block to our northeast is looking very similar to the build up to the Feb 78 battleground which buried most of SW England under 20 ft snowdrifts! 

Next week could possibly pull off some good surprises looking at Current modelling .on the run up to that low that tracked s/east then east of s/east on the 18th feb 1978 i  actually had the pleasure of spending the week as a quest at a weather centre ,what a week will it wont it ,even up till t12 hrs it was forecast to miss bristol but boy did it arrive in style ,although bristol did catch it the worst was further south .if you look at many classic winter storms its quite often marginal to start with .Nice to see a large block setting up over russia that could hopefully change things after next thursday gang ,and at the 7/8 day range thats a very long time in meteorology ,interesting wintry synoptics so plenty for us to get our teeth into .

[Mark Parsons]

well theres similarities, but hold fire atm for such prognosis. !

 

It all comes down to positive or negative interpretation, in most cases it's easy to spin it either way! Anyway as Winter of 79 alluded to the block to our northeast is looking very similar to the build up to the Feb 78 battleground which buried most of SW England under 20 ft snowdrifts! 

 

 

well theres similarities, but hold fire atm for such prognosis. !

Sorry if I am coming across as a ramp! I do find connecting past weather conditions with the current day intriguing. On a negative note, a lot of us on here have seen these blocks to the east flirt with the UK for weeks at a time in the past and never quite make it here!  

[Summer Sun]

Just about all of the models agree on some sort of easterly for a time next week

 

This is how they see things at t144

 

 

What is uncertain after this is how quickly it breaks down

 

Skipping along 2 days to t192 ECM keeps things fairly cold especially in the east

 

 

GFS also keeps things cold and unsettled with snow fairly widespread

 

 

GEM however turns thing more settled with a weak ridge of high pressure

 

 

NAVGEM only goes to t180 but high pressure is already over the UK

 

 

So a mixed bag beyond t144 with all options open still, but some very interesting possibilities around mid next week now its a case of waiting to see if the charts at t144 can make it down to t72 and eventually reality early December we had a northerly on offer at t144 only for it to downgrade and it only lasted one day

Edited January 23, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Paul]

Here's the latest from Michael Fish - loads of weather to be keeping an eye on..

 

http://vimeo.com/84807303

 

Also, if you've not read it yet - Jo's update from this morning:

Rain, Sleet and Strengthening Winds

[karlos1983]

GFS 06z not sliding off SE as quick at 120

 

 

00z

 

 

has been noted that the 06z is not the best run of the day i believe?

Edited January 23, 2014 by karlos1983

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

I must say I'm really impressed with the JMA , and the UKMO , these two have in my mind undoubtedly led the way over the last few days , and very glad to see the ECM ensembles trending very much colder especially for Europe , Iv been convinced we are about to see a major pattern change and remain so even more this morning , sliders coming down the country have bought lots of snow the uk over the years , and last years snow was as a result of that . Game on , finally !!

GFS 06z not sliding off SE as quick at 120

 

 

00z

 

 

has been noted that the 06z is not the best run of the day i believe?

The 06 is notorious for not handling blocking situations , I barely take note .

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Temps just a couple of degreesabove freezing across parts of England next wednesday as the air is pulled in off the continent.

[Mark Parsons]

Here's the latest from Michael Fish - loads of weather to be keeping an eye on..

 

http://vimeo.com/84807303

 

Also, if you've not read it yet - Jo's update from this morning:

Rain, Sleet and Strengthening Winds

If you compare the forecast's from Gibby, Micheal Fish and Jo Farrow it's like comparing the models they are all slightly different!!!

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

GFS pumps up the siberian high to 1050MB.

Thats a very very impressive anticyclone..

[nick sussex]

Not a bad run from the GFS 06hs in terms of the broader NH set up, displaced Azores high , another lobe of high pressure over the Arctic, I'm beginning to think another Feb 1996 outcome is a growing possibility.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

For me the biggest difference in this run is the polar profile compared with the 0z , the 06z has the eastern pacific ridge infiltrating the polar regions significantly more on this run , think that can only be a good thing going toward .

[Troubleatmill]

I must say I'm really impressed with the JMA , and the UKMO , these two have in my mind undoubtedly led the way over the last few days , and very glad to see the ECM ensembles trending very much colder especially for Europe , Iv been convinced we are about to see a major pattern change and remain so even more this morning , sliders coming down the country have bought lots of snow the uk over the years , and last years snow was as a result of that . Game on , finally !!The 06 is notorious for not handling blocking situations , I barely take note .

 

Wondered about this SSIB, do we have actual proof that it doesnt handle blocks better, not saying it doesnt. Guess what im saying is do we know whether each GFS run has different settings or whether each run is simply run with identical settings to the previous run and is just supposed to be 6 hours later so 6 hours more accurate? it would be good to put it to bed and know either way

[Frosty.]

GFS pumps up the siberian high to 1050MB.

Thats a very very impressive anticyclone..

May it live long and prosper.. .I have high hopes for next week, the models are generally taking on a more wintry look and even at this range I can see there being significant accumulations, at least across the north & east of the uk as next week goes on as the air becomes colder and colder combined with low pressure, could be a lot of drifting too in the strong winds as the isobars tighten due to the forcing of the low to the southwest against the mega cold block to the north / north east.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Not a bad run from the GFS 06hs in terms of the broader NH set up, displaced Azores high , another lobe of high pressure over the Arctic, I'm beginning to think another Feb 1996 outcome is a growing possibility.

Emm interesting , I know there are ones that's actually routing for 1991 type blizzard come mid feb , and not off the likes of madden either . Someone in hear actually ! On that note my lips are sealed !!!

[Troubleatmill]

Not a bad run from the GFS 06hs in terms of the broader NH set up, displaced Azores high , another lobe of high pressure over the Arctic, I'm beginning to think another Feb 1996 outcome is a growing possibility.

 

its looking a distinct possibility isnt it Nick, with a stalemate over the uk for while, we all know what happend then with warm moist air trying to ride over the top of cold air and failing, 48hrs of snow, certainly not there yet but definately a few mmmmm's looking how it may work out 

Edited January 23, 2014 by Nicholas B

[shedhead]

Jet looks set to power up significantly on this run, so IF correct there looks a real danger that the Atlantic could come crashing on through later next week. Any sort of sustained cold looks very unlikely based on this.

 

[nick sussex]

The area to the north of the UK will be the decider going forward, will that energy remain?

 

If the ridge is further west and because of the improved polar profile you'd end up with the energy disrupting to the west of the UK, this is  case of phasing or not and this will be the tipping point because with the displaced Azores high and low heights to the se you have just one more piece of the puzzle to find.

 

 

[TEITS]

Really think some are making the mistake of looking at the Isobars and not factoring in the airmass.

 

Take this chart for example.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2161.png

 

Damn good snow event here.

 

DO NOT make the mistake of assuming mild just because LP systems are crossing the UK!!

 

Max temp 1C from a W,ly!!

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2521.png

Edited January 23, 2014 by TEITS

[Paul_1978]

If you compare the forecast's from Gibby, Micheal Fish and Jo Farrow it's like comparing the models they are all slightly different!!!

Yep, and looking at Michael's forecast, nothing really to get excited about in terms of snow at the time he did the forecast. But it's a developing situation.....