Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.

[The PIT]

ECM still wants to push the block away in deep FI while GFS wants to undercut under the block. Looking the panel maps in deep FI the unde cutting low is one option under ECM at T240. Yup FI watching I know. ECM being too progressive in deep FI????

[phil nw.]

The first thing to say is how unsettled the next few days are likely to be with a lot of rain and some gales as that the deepening low moves in from the north west.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm721.gif

Frontal systems moving across on Friday and Sunday and showery outbreaks in between on a strong and cold feeling westerly wind.

 

Early next week the low moves se across the UK with the UK and ECM models showing in particular stronger heights across the north which makes all the difference to a cleaner evolution to an easterly at T120/144hrs.

This would change rain to snow for many northern and eastern areas first spreading further south as the colder air comes in.

 

Beyond that are signs that the next ejection of low pressure off the Canadian vortex may be held back as the pressure builds across from Scandinavia.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

GFS not yet fully on board  but even on that run a much better cut off low is shown with a weaker Atlantic push beyond.

 

A move towards better blocking this morning then so let's see if this trend can be maintained in later runs.

[weather eater]

Cmon fergie blast us with a wintry update today!!folks at the office must be a little more confident now of a wintry outbreak which many of us have been ccraving for a long time!!ecm has has improved this this morning but more especialyy the gfs!!and there's no words to describe the ukmo its just fantastic in its consistency!!

Yes things shaping up nicely this morning but the METO won’t get overly carried away with model projections out at 120-144hrs simply because these are still subject to much revision, that view will of course change over the next couple of days if we see more support across the further model suites.

Edited January 23, 2014 by weather eater

[Paul]

I am sure there is a thread on here somewhere bout the approaching rain / poss deep low pressure.

 

Just to clarify - this thread is for model discussion - and that can cover all weather types, and from short to longer range so long as the discussion is model related. Yes, severe weather general threads are available when 'events' are likely or ongoing, and of course there are general weather chat threads too, but either way anything model related is fine in this thread.

[nick sussex]

This area circled red is an important detail, this is an area of much colder 850's, all the models have this, but they take it in different directions afterwards because of the shape and positioning of their respective low as it sinks to the south.

 

This is the UKMO at T96hrs:

 

 

If the low tracks further to the west at the initial stage and then slides ese/se this much colder upper air has a better chance of getting advected into the circulation.

 

The ECM and GFS take this cold 850's more to the nw because of their less favourable low.

 

You can see on the ECM postage stamps very good agreement for low pressure near or over the UK at T120hrs but theres alot of variation with the shape and positioning of the low:

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/teasers/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!120!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2014010912!!/

Edited January 23, 2014 by nick sussex

[bluearmy]

I wonder if Ian could let us know what kind of dp's are indicated by the ukmo GM days 5 thru 7? although looks more than promising, it could be a settling scenario more on hills than lower down?

[The Northern Ramper]

Cmon fergie blast us with a wintry update today!!folks at the office must be a little more confident now of a wintry outbreak which many of us have been ccraving for a long time!!ecm has has improved this this morning but more especialyy the gfs!!and there's no words to describe the ukmo its just fantastic in its consistency!!

As he has said a dozen times, rain is their focus.

[nick sussex]

The ECM ensemble mean looks better than the actual operational run, also the spreads show the pattern further west past at T168hrs.

 

There is a cluster of solutions which disrupt troughing to the west of the UK  with low pressure further west over Iberia.

 

If we can get a decent block to the north before the next Atlantic push then theres a decent chance of an extension to the cold.

 

I'd expect to see an increase in colder solutions when the ECM De Bilt ensembles come out shortly.

Edited January 23, 2014 by nick sussex

[Frosty.]

The ukmo 00z is a peach, it's sublime, it's poetry in motion with strengthening height rises to the north east / north and that stormy slider low on sunday gradually enabling much colder air to dig further south & west. If the ukmo or something similar verifies, next week will be a snow fest with ice days and blizzards..it's a carlsberg run, an upgrade on yesterday even. The fuse has been lit by the ukmo    

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

The ECM ensemble mean looks better than the actual operational run, also the spreads show the pattern further west past at T168hrs.

 

I'd expect to see an increase in colder solutions when the ECM De Bilt ensembles come out shortly.

Great news Nick-

Certainly those trumpetting the Atlantic only yesterday might be rethinking their views this morning

The ukmo 00z is a peach, it's sublime, it's poetry in motion with strengthening height rises to the north east / north and that stormy slider low on sunday gradually enabling much colder air to dig further south & west. If the ukmo or something similar verifies, next week will be a snow fest with ice days and blizzards..it's a carlsberg run, an upgrade on yesterday even. The fuse has been lit by the ukmo    

Thats ma boy

[The Weather Dragon]

I've been a member since 2005 & have been quietly following this winter. IMHO ECM has been poor this & last winter - a model that traditionaly managed to model high latitude blocking reasonably well has been overly progressive this season - This is a strong Scandinavian block but unfortunatley I feel that we will always be on the periphery of it - as has been the case in recent winters - Still waiting for the elusive Greenland/Icelandic High

Edited January 23, 2014 by Jonathan Evans

[nick sussex]

Great news Nick-

Certainly those trumpetting the Atlantic only yesterday might be rethinking their views this morning

The key is where the block is at T168hrs, and it could still go either way, essentially the spreads at T192hrs show the Azores high displaced further to the west and troughing running from Iberia right upto Iceland.

 

The Atlantic is though likely to get very close to the UK even with the better blocking but the issue is how much energy disrupts se rather than just ne.

 

Theres still however a hurdle to jump earlier with getting a clearance of upstream energy to allow the block further sw, at the moment thats still not a given so I'm going to remain calm and not theatrical for the timebeing! I know makes a change!

[tight isobar]

The ECM ensemble mean looks better than the actual operational run, also the spreads show the pattern further west past at T168hrs. There is a cluster of solutions which disrupt troughing to the west of the UK  with low pressure further west over Iberia. If we can get a decent block to the north before the next Atlantic push then theres a decent chance of an extension to the cold. I'd expect to see an increase in colder solutions when the ECM De Bilt ensembles come out shortly.

agreed nick good mean.and the turning point for myself was 12z ecm more/ less getting solution ukmo, and from that point had possibly an upgrades for perhaps not only gettint the cold in, but to start the look for possible prolongment.could start seeing good solid modeling of a firmer shutdown of the pesky pond(Atlantic). Good evolution to date,.

[Whiteout74]

The key is where the block is at T168hrs, and it could still go either way, essentially the spreads at T192hrs show the Azores high displaced further to the west and troughing running from Iberia right upto Iceland.

 

The Atlantic is though likely to get very close to the UK even with the better blocking but the issue is how much energy disrupts se rather than just ne.

 

Theres still however a hurdle to jump earlier with getting a clearance of upstream energy to allow the block further sw, at the moment thats still not a given so I'm going to remain calm and not theatrical for the timebeing! I know makes a change!

 

But of course Nick, getting the Atlantic close is not all bad, we get battleground events.

Edited January 23, 2014 by Whiteout74

[winterof79]

Here is an archive from Jan 1978 a similar evolution.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1978/archives-1978-1-19-0-0.png

 

A winter with heights to the north /east after New Year.

[tight isobar]

But of course Nick, getting the Atlantic close is not all bad, we get battleground events.

thats also another option to look for on the models.so makes for good viewing east to west.

[Gibby]

Good morning. Here is today's report for the output issued from the NWP for Thursday and taken from http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

 

All models show a very unsettled period to come overall areas for the next week. Through the period there will be a couple of active frontal systems affecting much of the UK, one tomorrow and another on Sunday when the parent depression will continue to affect the UK weather all the way into the middle of next week as it drifts slowly SE across the UK to lie close to or to the South of the UK by midweek. throughout the period we are all going to see much more rainfall, heavy and disruptive in places, especially in those areas already affected by flooding issues. Some brief drier interludes  are possible at times but nowhere are these expected to last for long. Winds will also be strong at times especially on Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will be average or thereabouts but it may become colder briefly towards the middle of next week as the low slips to the South of the UK bringing an injection of cold Easterlies briefly;

 

GFS then sees out next week with yet another depression moving SE over the UK with further rain and strong winds with overall not much in the way of a sustained improvement through the rest of the run with average temperatures returning with any snowfall restricted to northern hills.

 

The GFS Ensembles do show a mean value suggesting a rather cold spell of weather but nothing desperately so with snowfall remaining quite elusive away from the hills. Rainfall in general is shown to be quite well spread about over the period as unsettled weather persists though amounts do trend downwards gradually with time.

 

UKMO remains very troubling with regard to heavy rainfall as Low pressure having arrived at the start of the week still remains well in control close to Southern Britain next Wednesday with heavy showers and longer spells of rain still likely over many areas, worst in the South. Somewhat colder conditions over the North could give rise to some wintry weather over the hills.

 

GEM is a little more optimistic as we move towards the end of next week with Low pressure taking rain and sleet away from the South midweek before a ridge brings a drier interlude with some sunshine and frost at night though further weaker fronts moving SE will keep rain a feature at times, this time more especially in the North.

 

NAVGEM also shows a welcome ridge to bring an interlude to the wet weather late next week but by the end of the run stronger and milder SW winds have already infiltrated their way back into the NW with some rain.

 

ECM today shows the end of next week as unsettled as ever with the early week Low pressure moving away soon after midweek with rain and sleet clearing away ahead of renewed Westerly winds or gales and spells of rain and showers likely for all areas again long before the weekend. Temperatures will return closer to normal after a colder snap midweek.

 

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show no overall change to those of late and maintain the pattern that has been shown now for more than a week. The net result is that the UK lies under or on the western flank of a broad trough created by Low pressure to the NW and sliding troughs down across the UK maintaining chilly and sometimes wet weather interspersed with sunshine and showers, some wintry.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

 

The Jet Stream is currently undergoing a strengthening as it exits the states and this will remain the case for  more than a week as it powers across the Atlantic towards the UK before turning South across us and away over Southern Europe. It's not until the less reliable time lapse before it is shown to weaken. mostly due to natural variability in member solutions at that range.

 

In Summary this morning the weather looks very unsettled and often windy and wet. This of course is not what many want to here but unfortunately it is what is shown throughout the output with just a brief window of drier weather late next week from some of the less reliable output. For those looking for cold the window of opportunity has closed even more this morning with just a day or two at most near the middle of next week the time when a little wintry weather could be apparent, mostly in the North. However, with regard to importance this remains a miniscule factor in what by far the most newsworthy factors of this morning's output is the continuing probability of troubling rainfalls, likely to make the headlines again next week rather than snowfall.

[itsnowjoke]

Im quite confused.com ive been reading the posts above Gibbys which seemed to be positive for coldies and then i read Gibbys???

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Im quite confused.com ive been reading the posts above Gibbys which seemed to be positive for coldies and then i read Gibbys???

Yes im not sure how Gibby can say the window has closed a little more for cold this morning.

If anything the wintry charts have upgraded since yesterday....

[NorthYorksWeather]

Not sure how many more UKMO runs I can view from behind the sofa, really would help to the ECM/GFS painting a similar position with regards to that low.

The GFS does show that we can find snow another way, wth some cold air filtering westwards allowing the next Atlantic attack to fall as snow, although not ideal if your looking for prolonged cold spell, but after the winter so far I'm sure most of us would be more than happy with a short frontal snowfall event.

 

 

Let us l take a moment to pray that the UKMO is on the ball this time round. AMEN

[Frosty.]

Im quite confused.com ive been reading the posts above Gibbys which seemed to be positive for coldies and then i read Gibbys???

Well i'm just taking the ukmo run at face value, and what a face for 2 days in a row it screams wintry from the top of it's lungs, the fat lady won't be singing , she won't even make it out of her dressing room if anything like the epic ukmo 00z verifies.... me too vizzy

Edited January 23, 2014 by Frosty.

[mickpips]

Even with the current UKMO output and other models starting to follow suite in their own ways , i still err on the edge of cuation , still many 'proffessional' local forecasters ... even up to 10 minutes ago !! must be seeing something i and others on here dont within the latest output as, and i quote ' snow is possible next week but is unlikely to be of any concern' , granted thats for IMBY ... but far from what i was expecting , hopefully Fergie will shed a bit of light ?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Ok, using UKMO which is a superb run for cold, IMO le crunch is close.......t72

 

 

to this at t96

 

 

 

The leap of faith of SE sliding.......however, we ain't looking at t168 leap of faith...............this could be the door to finally get us in......or will it get slammed shut in our faces.  Surely this time???? 

There is another serious cold surge for the US, and this run shows that as it goes on, so it ain't outlandish.  This winter seems to be catching most of us wrong footed, and I for one don't know where we are going with this. 

 

 

 

BFTP

Edited January 23, 2014 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Biggin]

Just to clarify - this thread is for model discussion - and that can cover all weather types, and from short to longer range so long as the discussion is model related. Yes, severe weather general threads are available when 'events' are likely or ongoing, and of course there are general weather chat threads too, but either way anything model related is fine in this thread.

Indeed my post about 15 above yours says "Sure it will and should be discussed in here" also I explain,there my reasons for that post to Gibby which was to enable him to access the info he was after.

[itsnowjoke]

Yes im not sure how Gibby can say the window has closed a little more for cold this morning.If anything the wintry charts have upgraded since yesterday....

As im not brill at reading the models i look to others for opinions but sometimes when scrolling down we go from....Get the BBQ out to get ya sledge dusted off to umbrellas at the ready Atlantic here to stay.