Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.

[MR EXTREMES]

mind you the alantic looks like freezing over

[Purga]

The whole pattern getting flattened by the jet riding over the top. Transient cold for a couple of days on this run.

 

Edited January 22, 2014 by Purga

[Mucka]

"Rampede!"

     

 

Love it.

 

It may have to wait for tomorrow though, one more decent JMA doesn't quite cut it.

Edited January 22, 2014 by Mucka

[cooling climate]

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=24&mode=1&nh=1&archive=0 JMA wants to set off a Rampede tonight ( 3 days running ) Inline with the UKMO but shades better- ECM 168- NICE but not the best run of the day S

It would not take a huge leap of faith to see the JMA being right from t144 onwards.

[sunnijim]

One must not forget the JMA! Widespread snow from these charts!

Nice output tonight, hopefully we get to see some consistency and verification from the JMA!

Steve beat me to it!

Certainly not,as we now know its held in such high regard by the ukmo....of far more interest than the flapping GFS that some folk seem to love using to demonstrate a no to cold at anytime! Edited January 22, 2014 by sunnijim

[Downpour]

mind you the alantic looks like freezing over

I suppose such an outcome may go someway to rehabilitating this winter

[bluearmy]

the fi ecm solution looks to be quite consisitent. although we are unsure in the T96/T192 timeframe, the push of energy off the canadian vortex days 9 and 10 seem irresitable. we can hope to have a better profile this side of the atlantic when it arrives but its going to be tough to avoid a return of the westerlies. shame we cant tempt that russian ridge west.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Iv saw enough tonight to keep us all interested , much to be finalised yet , the uppers don't look great on this run but anything past t96 is just for fun to be honest , so we have solid building blocks going into next wk , a chance for snow , cold continent . All the models become very progressive in the latter parts of the run so really not much point looking beyond 144 . Good progress and the ukmo leading the way from this morning .

Edited January 22, 2014 by Severe Siberian icy blast

[Summer Sun]

North westerly setting up at t216

 

 

Colder air pushing into the NW Scotland so potential for showers to turn wintry here

 

[snowice]

Yes but I said "for now". Various outcomes next week to factor in (note JMA still bullish).

Just wonder how much creditability the met office gives to JMA over ECM GFS Ian?

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014012212/ECH1-216.GIF?22-0

 

Last one from me-

 

around a 1000 mile correction from the ECM at day 9- still trying to usher in the atlantic- So based on that another couple of runs & were home & dry.

 

I think we have 3 areas to focus on tonight-

 

Short to mid term- how much wind & rain

Medium term -   how cold does it get from the East

Longer term-   Can the block withstand the atlantic push...

 

 

s

[That ECM]

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/9043/ECH1-216_blv3.GIF with what has been a strange winter, how ironic would it be if the PV came down fron the nw and gave us the first meaningful cold spell?

[weirpig]

North westerly setting up at t216

 

 

Colder air pushing into the NW Scotland so potential for showers to turn wintry here

 

just look how cold that atlantic is. is that normal for this time of year?

[MR EXTREMES]

ukmo 120

jma at 120

ecm at 120

 

gem at 120

navgem at 120

gefs at 120

cfs at 120

make what you will beyond this is fi but theres most certainl a 50/50 split either way for cold sustained east north east flow or west north west although none to warm them upper coming out of the states.

[Mucka]

just look how cold that atlantic is. is that normal for this time of year?

 

Ian F has alluded to the fact that a Westerly type flow could be very cold for the time of year, so not a freak event but not usual either.

Edited January 22, 2014 by Mucka

[Purga]

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/2507/ECH1-0_hlm9.GIF

Were off!! What do you reckon, zonal?!?!! Only kidding.

Yes

 

Only kidding!

[nick sussex]

After a promising start the ECM doesn't quite deliver but is an improvement on this mornings 00hrs run upto T168hrs, there are still some marked differences over the ne USA though, the evolutions of the ECM and GFS are similar, the UKMO is more in the JMA camp.

 

The JMA is one of those once in a very long time set ups because of the troughing running se to the west of the UK it could produce a lot of snow for favoured areas, difficult to know which model is correct, its likely that the PV will edge east later and try and bulldoze its way east into Europe but the models thought that last week and the block held up well so certainly I wouldn't be drawing too many conclusions from the FI output.

 

Still a chance that this will be held further back with energy heading se, at the moment the models want to take all that energy ne, bar of course the JMA.

Edited January 22, 2014 by nick sussex

[MR EXTREMES]

just look how cold that atlantic is. is that normal for this time of year?

id say yes because the vortex strength this year perhaps.

[Summer Sun]

With a block to our east the low is over the UK and has no where to go

 

 

Looking at the 850's its cold enough for snow

 

 

[Downpour]

With a block to our east the low is over the UK and has no where to go

 

 

Looking at the 850's its cold enough for snow

 

 

I reckon that would fall as cold rain on a westerly feed

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

With a block to our east the low is over the UK and has no where to go

 

 

Looking at the 850's its cold enough for snow

 

 

id say yes because the vortex strength this year perhaps.

Yes it's ironic that we spend all our time dreading the westerlies but the west is so cold because of the mighty strong and cold vortex this year we actually stand a chance of having a snowy westerly , it's not unheard of , and Iv seen it twice in my life, the Atlantic is mild so throw 850's of -5/6 to the uk and that would be a snow machine in the truest sense , it is of course all speculation at this juncture but very interesting to talk about , Sunday night into Monday could be our first taste of something snowy from the . . . . Wait for it . . . . WEST!!!!!

[Purga]

I reckon that would fall as cold rain on a westerly feed

Shssss... don't tell Cecil.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Yes it's ironic that we spend all our time dreading the westerlies but the west is so cold because of the mighty strong and cold vortex this year we actually stand a chance of having a snowy westerly , it's not unheard of , and Iv seen it twice in my life, the Atlantic is mild so throw 850's of -5/6 to the uk and that would be a snow machine in the truest sense , it is of course all speculation at this juncture but very interesting to talk about , Sunday night into Monday could be our first taste of something snowy from the . . . . Wait for it . . . . WEST!!!!!

 

Shaun, true, 5th Feb last year i had a mini blizzard off a westerly, coldest westerly ive known, only trouble with snowy westerlies, hills tend to kill showers before reaching here

[Weather-history]

I reckon that would fall as cold rain on a westerly feed

Only if you think two dimensional, I would have thought with altitude.....

[North-Easterly Blast]

Yes it's ironic that we spend all our time dreading the westerlies but the west is so cold because of the mighty strong and cold vortex this year we actually stand a chance of having a snowy westerly , it's not unheard of , and Iv seen it twice in my life, the Atlantic is mild so throw 850's of -5/6 to the uk and that would be a snow machine in the truest sense , it is of course all speculation at this juncture but very interesting to talk about , Sunday night into Monday could be our first taste of something snowy from the . . . . Wait for it . . . . WEST!!!!!

We seek the holy grail:

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1984/Rrea00119840116.gif

http://www,wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1984/Rrea00119840117.gif

A zonal flow, but guess what, snow fell in many areas from the Midlands northwards.

 

Appears to be a battleground setting up:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1984/Rrea00119840122.gif

 

But no, the Atlantic wins and brings back zonality, with any blocking too far east or north to influence the UK, but guess what, widespread snowfall, in a zonal setup, even some down to areas further south too, and many areas were snow covered up to a week:

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1984/Rrea00119840123.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1984/Rrea00119840124.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1984/Rrea00119840125.gif

Will we ever see zonality deliver like the above setups ever again?  If we have to have zonality, why does it not deliver or so infrequently deliver nowadays?  It just goes to show what is possible for a zonal setup to deliver, given more favourable orientation, but it so infrequently happens nowadays away from the Scottish hills at least.  Iceland would be a great place to see cold zonality, but the UK is so often on the mild side of a zonal flow. 

Edited January 22, 2014 by North-Easterly Blast