Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.

[Mucka]

Sorry General but if you look at the GEFS charts sure they look 'good' with low 850 temps but check out the best part of the run

 

 

And a bit later -6C thicknesses 850hPa getting into the NE

 

 

 

But apart from the NE it's cold rain as I suggested - maybe a bit of sleety stuff up North but not sifnificant.

 

 

Thereafter the zonal train progresses

 

Far more significant is the potential rainfest likely to be endured by poor folk in flood areas!!

 

 

You are looking at mean charts which means should the Easterly develop you are looking at diluted outcome - the reality is the uppers will either be a fair bit warmer or colder than the mean shows.

[Purga]

And?

UKMO favour a return to Atlantic regime,they also favoured a barbeque summer in 2007/8?

They get it wrong sometimes Purga,as do we all.

Anyway,GEFS 12Z are looking very good for next week.

Of course we can all get things wrong but i think I'll stick with the Pros on this one.

[Troubleatmill]

Only for the NE otherwise you're snookered. Cold rain and an Azores ridge wafting in to dumb everthing down again.

Could be right Purga, however important pieces of the jigsaw to cold are on that ukmo t144, the tranditional area for shortwaves off the nw coast of Norway has been taken up by the Scandi/polar combo block, azores is taking on se/nw tilt allowing DP's to track in a 135° direction and pressure is low on the continent, prety good chart tbh what could go wrong :s

[Purga]

You are looking at mean charts which means should the Easterly develop you are looking at diluted outcome - the reality is the uppers will either be a fair bit warmer or colder than the mean shows.

General Cecil was using the 'looking good ' GEFS as the basis for his argument against my cold rain suggestion so that's why I've used the same charts in response.

Edited January 22, 2014 by Purga

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Of course we can all get things wrong but i think I'll stick with the Pros on this one.

Absolutely,no truck with that- im very wary of NWP until i see the metoffice 'on board'.

The picture is complex though and the UKMO 144 looks finely balanced.The 12z ensembles have also trended colder.

We'll see...

General Cecil was using the 'lookikg good ' GEFS as the basis for his argument against my cold rain suggestion so that's why I've used the same charts in response.

I was talking about the UKMO run but the GEFS suite has trended colder this evening.

Hence my more optimistic stance.

[That ECM]

Of course we can all get things wrong but i think I'll stick with the Pros on this one.

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/2507/ECH1-0_hlm9.GIF

Were off!! What do you reckon, zonal?!?!! Only kidding.

[Weather-history]

But apart from the NE it's cold rain as I suggested - maybe a bit of sleety stuff up North but not significant.

!

That's the mean precipitation chart at 180hrs. Does the mean precipitation chart really mean anything at that range?

To be honest at that far out not a lot.

Edited January 22, 2014 by Weather-history

[weather eater]

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=187&y=174 (South West England)

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=307&y=138 (South East England)

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=269&y=0 (Northern England)

As several have pointed out, the 12z ENS are much better for blocking and, as a consequence, better for cold and snow, reflected in the 850 temps. One thing that is worth pointing out is that you don't need deep cold for snow so many of these members could provide snow quite widely on account of low thicknesses and/or low dewpoints, depending on where the surface flow is coming from and the upper air profile. No certainty yet, but nothing can be ruled out!

Trouble is Joe how many times has that been said this winter, there’s is good support from the Ems for blocking, only to mean nothing, as far as I can see the Ems just lead us up the garden path more times than the Ops.

[SMU]

Ive picked this one to try & illlustrate the V high pressure I was referring to earlier

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=2&ech=6&carte=1&mode=0

 

Look at the 174 Chart it looks like the high is almost square at the bottom left in the North sea-

 

What that is doing is forcing the Energy of the Atlantic SSE

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-2-3-180.png?12

 

which results in this big snow fest a la Feb 96

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-2-1-204.png?12

 

& back to Easterlies thereafter

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-2-1-264.png?12

 

As said, I would rate the COLD evolutions V the Mild solutions about 50/50 tonight which on the face of it seems about right-

 

S

[Joe Levy]

Trouble is Joe how many times has that been said this winter, there’s is good support from the Ems for blocking, only to mean nothing, as far as I can see the Ems just lead us up the garden path more times than the Ops.

I never said it meant anything of certainty! But if we don't look at them at all, what is the point of this forum? It is part of the model output and should be counted equally with other output. Also, models don't lead us up the garden path! They're mathematical equations, they have no personality tonight's output is displaying things as they currently stand, which will change no doubt. We lead ourselves up the garden path by implanting emotions into an emotionless situation! The current GEFS is pretty good for cold, noone can deny, but that does not guarantee it will stay that way. If it keeps being good for cold, then something is being calculated that won't go away, so it is then where we can have more certainty. Currently, anything can happen really!

[DeKust BergenaanZee]

My sense is that after a slight retreat following the encounter with the low over the weekend, the high will come back with a vengeance second half next week, driven by increasing cold conditions in Russia, Poland and Finland.

[The Eagle]

ECM solidly in tune with the UKMO at 96 hrs. Perhaps slightly more amplified.

[Purga]

That's the mean precipitation chart at 180hrs. Does the mean precipitation charts really mean anything at that range?To be honest at that far out not a lot.

I know that very well but please read what I posted above - Cecil was referring to the 'good' GEFS to back his argument suggesting there may be something more than cold rain for most of us. The 180hrs precip chart was actually the 'best' of the whole suite! All the rest just shows mostly rain for all and in the earlier parts of the run a lot of it God forbid!

Look - I'm also desperate to see some snow and I love cold winter weather probably more than most on here could stomache in reality. But one has to be realistic about what is likely based on the synoptic model outputs and the opinions of the Pros at the MetOffice.

[Panayiotis]

ECM solidly in tune with the UKMO at 96 hrs. Perhaps slightly more amplified.

Yes I agree and the block over Russia on the ECM seems stronger:

[nick sussex]

Looks like the ECM is going from zero to hero judging by its T96hrs output, more sharper troughing over the ne USA.

[Mucka]

Putting personification and anthropomorphism aside  the ECM 96h is not far off UKMO with decent Arctic high. It is a little further East but also a tad more amplified upstream.

 

Bless its little cotton socks. 

 

Edit.

 

that better amplification is spoilt by a phasing low which the UKMO does not have.

Edited January 22, 2014 by Mucka

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014012212/ECU1-120.GIF?22-0

 

WINDY.

 

Not often such sharp deep depressions are tracking SE @120 on the ECM.

 

Identical to the UKMo @ 120 bar the states where the energy moving SSE south of Greenland is more acute. ( means more amplification behind)

 

S

[geordiekev]

My sense is that after a slight retreat following the encounter with the low over the weekend, the high will come back with a vengeance second half next week, driven by increasing cold conditions in Russia, Poland and Finland.

I do tend to agree and since next weekends dartboard low came into the reliable time frame I could see the models flip flopping until nearer the interaction with the block. As you say the Scandinavian cold is deep and could have a greater effect then some model runs expect.The Norwegian fish were certainly caught unaware of the cold when they flash froze in this lake so here's hoping the block can move into a preferred position on coming runs.http://www.independent.co.uk/news/weird-news/harsh-wind-hits-norwegian-bay-so-suddenly-that-thousands-of-fish-are-flashfrozen-9068088.html

[Stuie]

Well, maybe Monday`s aren`t that bad after all. Uppers could do with coming down somewhat.

 

Edit: There is the NE feed.

Edited January 22, 2014 by StuieW

[cooling climate]

Never can tell with the ECM these days but looking at the t120 chart I

would expect a much better run tonight with a more amplified pattern

than the 0z this morning.

[Polar Maritime]

Looking good so far..

 

[Mucka]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014012212/ECU1-120.GIF?22-0

 

WINDY.

 

Not often such sharp deep depressions are tracking SE @120 on the ECM.

 

Identical to the UKMo @ 120 bar the states where the energy moving SSE south of Greenland is more acute. ( means more amplification behind)

 

S

 

 

Yes at T96 we can see EM though has  a secondary low which is somewhat of a spoiler in the near term as it phases with the first low.

 

 

GFS 12z also has the secondary shortwave low.

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014012212/ECH1-144.GIF?22-0

 

NEARLY NEARLY from the ECM-

 

Atlantic upstream is shut down.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014012212/ECU1-144.GIF?22-0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014012212/ECU0-144.GIF?22-0

 

Snow flurries into Eastern Scotland.

 

S

[Summer Sun]

ECM is close to GEM at t144 pressure wise with the coldest air reserved for northern Scotland

 

 

GEM at t144

 

[MR EXTREMES]

Ive picked this one to try & illlustrate the V high pressure I was referring to earlier

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=2&ech=6&carte=1&mode=0

 

Look at the 174 Chart it looks like the high is almost square at the bottom left in the North sea-

 

What that is doing is forcing the Energy of the Atlantic SSE

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-2-3-180.png?12

 

which results in this big snow fest a la Feb 96

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-2-1-204.png?12

 

& back to Easterlies thereafter

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-2-1-264.png?12

 

As said, I would rate the COLD evolutions V the Mild solutions about 50/50 tonight which on the face of it seems about right-

 

S

to be honest steve I get what your saying like I said contrary to what the pros say we have seen this very set up happen a fair few times over the last four years and I expect you longterm net weather crew most likely have seen this type evolve to.

 

as I suggested earlier it is so finely balanced.