Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.

[Bobby]

UKMO keeps the faith.

And GFS 12Z has trended in the right direction.

OK maybe not a big freeze but certainly the chance for some snow for parts of the UK.

Im that desperate i'll take a day of snow showers..

Lets ignore the fact that UKMO would bring snow showers for parts of the UK then Bobby?

 

Briefly to NE areas looking at it at 144hrs, nothing sustained though with nothing to the stop westerlies quickly returning.

[draztik]

UKMO keeps the faith.And GFS 12Z has trended in the right direction.OK maybe not a big freeze but certainly the chance for some snow for parts of the UK.Im that desperate i'll take a day of snow showers..:DLets ignore the fact that UKMO would bring snow showers for parts of the UK then Bobby?

yes, but his bigger point is indeed valid. Snow possible, but we have these lower heights to our nw! As long as that stays, the Atlantic will continue to influence our weather - and not in a favourable way!

[karlos1983]

Pretty good from the UKMO really, in comparison to the GFS 00z vs 12z

 

00z

 

 

12z

 

 

GFS 00z

 

 

GFS 12z

 

Edited January 22, 2014 by karlos1983

[sunnijim]

UKMO at 144hrs and we get the easterly! Its hard to say where it will go from here however....

One would imagine if that ukmo 144hrs chart were to verify some bitter air over the near continent would be sent across much of Britain.

Temperatures over Germany are bitterly cold by then,could even promote convective snow showers off the North sea via a NE airflow if we can get that bitter air in while that low lurks to the SE of the UK.

[Mucka]

GEM ends up here for the mid term

 

 

It dissipates blocking to our North very quickly though and the upstream pattern wasn't that bad so it would of looked pretty good but for that. 

It is a worrying trend to see the influence of the Arctic high downgraded and we need JMA and ECM to back UKMO with the stronger block.

[shaky]

Ukmo is same as this mornings which is good!!no downgrade there!!and also gfs trending the right way and looks much better!!hopefully we can have a THAT ECM run this evening!!lol

[Cheshire Freeze]

One would imagine if that ukmo 144hrs chart were to verify some bitter air over the near continent would be sent across much of Britain.Temperatures over Germany are bitterly cold by then,could even promote convective snow showers off the North sea via a NE airflow if we can get that bitter air in while that low lurks to the SE of the UK.

 

Yes but not good going forward necessarily. You can see the track of the jet and the UK would be too far west to benefit from a drop SE wards of that next low. Much more amplification needed there.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Yin and yang.....1048mb high to the NE and a 972mb low to the NW. The Azores high is doing us no favours at all...throwing ridges NE when really Atlantic energy should be sliding SE into the continent....

 

 

Now if we were in summer.. and that was going to push even further North... We would be getting the BBqs out.. 

 

However.. I feel everytime this winter we get a set of charts bang tidy ones... then comes a problem that they may or may not happen.. then it's down the pan..

 

I am not writing winter of yet.. But some winters are not to be, yes we are seeing a mix in the models but really? I have not known a winter so warm! Having said that I am only 19 

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

yes, but his bigger point is indeed valid. Snow possible, but we have these lower heights to our nw! As long as that stays, the Atlantic will continue to influence our weather - and not in a favourable way!

Yes-snow is possible,that will do  for me for now thanks..

[Summer Sun]

UKMO looks fairly consistent from this mornings 00z at t144 for the 850's

 

 

00z

 

Edited January 22, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Cheshire Freeze]

Now if we were in summer.. and that was going to push even further North... We would be getting the BBqs out.. 

 

However.. I feel everytime this winter we get a set of charts bang tidy ones... then comes a problem that they may or may not happen.. then it's down the pan..

 

I am not writing winter of yet.. But some winters are not to be, yes we are seeing a mix in the models but really? I have not known a winter so warm! Having said that I am only 19 

 

The thing is, those low heights around Greenland/Canada won't last forever. My suspicion is we'll see a fairly rapid rise in pressure around the Greenland locale once that PV shifts.....Now, this could feasibly be March time. We could end up in a situation where no-one wins with another cold spring...

 

And yes this is comparable to some of those late 90's/early 2000's winters

[karlos1983]

Over to you ECM, if we can have (the main) 3 models showing that low heading SE bringing colder air from the NE, I'll be a happy tiger and deem the 12z a success 

[Summer Sun]

The big question with UKMO at t144 is where do we go from here

 

 

The above chart ties in nicely with the text update today

 

There may be a colder interlude around midweek, with easterly winds and wintry showers in the northeast of the UK

 

What they expect to happen currently is for westerly winds to make a return by the end of next week, but non the less a cold snap is better than nothing for the coldies on here with the chance of some wintry showers for some

[NO LONGER POSTING]

The thing is, those low heights around Greenland/Canada won't last forever. My suspicion is we'll see a fairly rapid rise in pressure around the Greenland locale once that PV shifts.....Now, this could feasibly be March time. We could end up in a situation where no-one wins with another cold spring...

 

And yes this is comparable to some of those late 90's/early 2000's winters

 

This is exactly what I was trying to tell my local thread. I think we can rule out (I know big plunge in this form) cold For the start of Feb and into the middle of Feb until we get towards march and we see the PV have other ideas.

 

Yes it could all change tonight and we have a raging easterly on the cards at the end of next week.. But personally I can't see it and put a bet on that the pattern that bought us the horrible weather on the lead up to Christmas re-starts its self for now..

[karlos1983]

The big question with UKMO at t144 is where do we go from here

 

 

The above chart ties in nicely with the text update today

 

There may be a colder interlude around midweek, with easterly winds and wintry showers in the northeast of the UK

 

What they expect to happen currently is for westerly winds to make a return by the end of next week, but non the less a cold snap is better than nothing for the coldies on here with the chance of some wintry showers for some

 

Hopefully further west with each run 

[ukpaul]

Now, this could feasibly be March time. We could end up in a situation where no-one wins with another cold spring...

Cold spring would be good for me, cool summer too (I don't stay around here to say that of course).

 

Anyway, GFS beyond 96h isn't really worth looking at but, in that timeframe, it's an improvement on the 06z; the key for me is how the ensembles behave, We went from good blocking on 75% of members for yesterday's 18z to barely a third on today's 06z, an improvement on that would be a good indicator.

 

As for UKMO, consistent and now 12 hours further on; unless the UKMO agrees with a pattern it ain't going to happen, we know that full well.

[tight isobar]

Ukmo is same as this mornings which is good!!no downgrade there!!and also gfs trending the right way and looks much better!!hopefully we can have a THAT ECM run this evening!!lol

agree.would like ECM evolution to UKMO, rather than relying on an over sympathetic westerly based GFS.if we get ECM/UKMO in sync, I, ll be a lot more optimistic regards possible upgraded modeling longer term! ?

[gottolovethisweather]

Further to my post from a couple of days ago concerning potential snow-watch dates, having now reached the Wednesday afternoon timeframe mentioned, I can confirm the revised 23rd January event will surely not be a snow event, except perhaps for those with significant elevation and situated much further North away from England.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79144-model-output-discussion-19th-january-2014-18z-onwards/?p=2902279

 

I am however much more interested in my second choice selected snow-watch date which is still on target that being the rather showery looking 27th January. Albeit once again it will be those at elevation or with North or West facing hillside localities who have a higher likelihood of anything wintry, rather than those of us in lowland England for example. Still looking good on a number of occasions over the forthcoming days, more especially into next week when it truly is to be a "make or break Winter 2013/14" watch for us coldies.

 

Not forgetting, aside from all this snow chasing, there is a whole lot of other weather types on offer with even the odd drier and sunny day thrown in. Everything from gales, mild days, cool days, deluges of rain, hail and Thunder all on offer as we end January and head off into February. Keep watching the updates from those who tell it like it is.

Edited January 22, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.html

Looks good to me

[winterof79]

The big question with UKMO at t144 is where do we go from here

 

 

The above chart ties in nicely with the text update today

 

There may be a colder interlude around midweek, with easterly winds and wintry showers in the northeast of the UK

 

What they expect to happen currently is for westerly winds to make a return by the end of next week, but non the less a cold snap is better than nothing for the coldies on here with the chance of some wintry showers for some

If that chart verified it means the low has been able to move s/e.If it fails the chance of any further undercutting would be minimal,hence the meto watching the undercutting closely.Once the undercut verifies the cold has won round 1

[UV-RAY]

The thing is, those low heights around Greenland/Canada won't last forever. My suspicion is we'll see a fairly rapid rise in pressure around the Greenland locale once that PV shifts.....Now, this could feasibly be March time. We could end up in a situation where no-one wins with another cold spring...

 

And yes this is comparable to some of those late 90's/early 2000's winters

Indeed CC, and it's what I've been alluding to over the last few weeks on how this winter is very similar to those bad ones of the nineties and nougties.

[The Eagle]

12z NAVGEM is one of the best outcomes possible from the coming setup even though short lived. 

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=1&carte=0&archive=0

Edited January 22, 2014 by The Eagle

[karlos1983]

 

 

It would be ironic if the Atlantic train delivered the first proper snow!!

 

Nice wet sticky stuff too 

Edited January 22, 2014 by karlos1983

[phil nw.]

From a cold pov we are so unfortunate to be just out of reach of the cold to the east.

Having watched the trend of the runs in the last 2 days we have the basic NH pattern trying to build a colder setup within the next few days ie an upper trough ejecting se into Europe and a block to the ne.

I thought at one time we would see the trough dissected as a cut off low moved into Europe with heights building over the top but recent modeling has moved away from this.

 

Those Arctic heights now are just not quite strong enough to establish such a setup and we keep the mean trough and the less cold air across the Uk and the propect of the Canadian/Greenland vortex segment still too close.

 

Pretty decent agreement on both UKMO and GFS out to day 5 on the expected pattern

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012212/gfsnh-0-120.png?12

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014012212/UN144-21.GIF?22-17

 

still shows a good dig se of the trough with those weak height anomalies around the Salvbard area. This is keeping a nw/se flow to the Atlantic jet but the UK remains mainly under the spell of a rather cold Atlantic influence as the whole setup is just too far east and the real cold and snow is headed for Denmark and the N.Sea.

 

The UKMO T144 hrs shows in a way what might have been with a temporary cold easterly cyclonic set up before the next low moves in from the nw.

A stronger block to the ne would send those cold uppers towards us at that point and induce disruption of the Atlantic trough further west.

 

Frustratingly the weaker vortex is creating these possibilities but for now they remain just that until we see greater heights over the Arctic.

 

[Summer Sun]

Wet and windy in the short term from GEM

 

 

The low then fizzles out

 

 

Before high pressure slowly builds

 

Edited January 22, 2014 by Summer Sun