Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.

[Frosty.]

Gibby said:Most models do show a deep Low pressure area slipping South over the UK next week and some do show a brief flirtation with something rather colder on the rear side of the exiting depression but with the Atlantic still being driven by a strong West to East flow over the Atlantic on the Northern Flank of a strong Azores High it is only a matter of hours rather than days before milder Westerly winds and further rain return across the UK later next week."a matter of hours"!Gibby - can you be so certain - that's one hell of a punt!

Well he's been right so far unfortunately but I think there are changes afoot. I think the jet will be displaced further south as time goes on due to the intensifying cold block to the north east, it's only a matter of time now before wintry weather gains the upper hand for the first time since last april.

[snowice]

THE Azores High is going round in circles in 06z and has been doing that for weeks. It’s getting very frustrating for all of us cold lovers! We need to see UKMO on the 12z at T144 moving that low SE. IF it follows the 00zECM I think in just one of those winters were we are waiting to catch the fish But it just keeps on nipping on the line and teasing us.

Edited January 22, 2014 by snowice

[shedhead]

06 GFS fails to move the LP southeastwards quickly enough before the next system moves in off of the Atlantic so no NE'erly, then to compound the problem the block looks set to be in retreat, with heights falling from west to east across Scandi by this time mext week.

 

[shedhead]

Well he's been right so far unfortunately but I think there are changes afoot. I think the jet will be displaced further south as time goes on due to the intensifying cold block to the north east, it's only a matter of time now before wintry weather gains the upper hand for the first time since last april.

Probably true from Germany NE'wards Frosty, but still no concrete evidence that is going to happen for the UK as a whole imo, at least not across the remainder of Jan... Quite the opposite in fact IF the 06 is to be believed

Edited January 22, 2014 by shedhead

[SMU]

The 06z lives up to it reputation for being the worst model of the day.  I wouldn't give it any consideration.

 

The battle will be UKMO V ECMS solutions today. & its whether we get any secondary amplitude in the atlantic when the low sinks south.

 

ECM has been consistently poor for the past 5 runs, whilst UKMO has been consistently upgrading over the last few day.  That creates quite a conflict, as the ECM is generally the best, however its rarely correct unless is UKMO is on board.

 

Its a wait & see scenario.

 

FWIW the NAVGEM run that I used as a forecast here ( 18z 20th 0-144) is still what I expect to see.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=0&carte=1&archive=1&mois=1&heure=18&jour=20&annee=2014

 

I think you will see the ECM back the UKMO tonight.

S

[Frosty.]

The 06z lives up to it reputation for being the worst model of the day.  I wouldn't give it any consideration.

 

The battle will be UKMO V ECMS solutions today. & its whether we get any secondary amplitude in the atlantic when the low sinks south.

 

ECM has been consistently poor for the past 5 runs, whilst UKMO has been consistently upgrading over the last few day.  That creates quite a conflict, as the ECM is generally the best, however its rarely correct unless is UKMO is on board.

 

Its a wait & see scenario.

 

FWIW the NAVGEM run that I used as a forecast here ( 18z 20th 0-144) is still what I expect to see.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=0&carte=1&archive=1&mois=1&heure=18&jour=20&annee=2014

 

I think you will see the ECM back the UKMO tonight.

S

There is only one problem with that and it's an important one, what if the ecm 12z backs the ukmo 00z and the ukmo 12z jumps ship?

Edited January 22, 2014 by Frosty.

[draztik]

Don't have much time this morning, so will stay brief. Up to 240, ecm doesn't look particularly pleasing to the eye... Then i had a look at the projected snowfall totals as per the euro

not without interest, esp the further north you go.

post 240, ecm ext still keen on lower heights to our nw. But certainly, lets see if we can get any delivery in the nxt week or so, and go from there.

[SMU]

There is only one problem with that and it's an important one, what if the ecm 12z backs the ukmo 00z and the ukmo 12z jumps ship?

Then wait the 00z runs

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Don't have much time this morning, so will stay brief. Up to 240, ecm doesn't look particularly pleasing to the eye... Then i had a look at the projected snowfall totals as per the euro

not without interest, esp the further north you go.

post 240, ecm ext still keen on lower heights to our nw. But certainly, lets see if we can get any delivery in the nxt week or so, and go from there.

 

This shows snow in the North sea? These honestly cannot be reliable less than 20%?

[shedhead]

Some pretty good agreement between the big two at T+240hrs, particularly in view of the range involved.  Bottom line is block gone, Atlantic in charge. Whether this actually transpires of course remains to be seen, but in the absence of anything else to suggest it won't I think we have to consider it to be more likely than not at this stage.

 

GFS

 

 

ECM

Edited January 22, 2014 by shedhead

[The PIT]

So GFS is broken ECM is broken and now UKMO is the model of choice except it doesn't go far enough out.

Steve I think you're getting far to biased these days or simply concentrating far too out in FI land where all models are fairly unreliable. I guess thats why they don't provide scores for them.

 

ECM doesn't seem to be doing any worse than ti was earlier in the year http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/new_acz5.html for day five and for day six http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/new_acz6.htm

Edited January 22, 2014 by The PIT

[TSNWK]

The 06z lives up to it reputation for being the worst model of the day.  I wouldn't give it any consideration.

 

The battle will be UKMO V ECMS solutions today. & its whether we get any secondary amplitude in the atlantic when the low sinks south.

 

ECM has been consistently poor for the past 5 runs, whilst UKMO has been consistently upgrading over the last few day.  That creates quite a conflict, as the ECM is generally the best, however its rarely correct unless is UKMO is on board.

 

Its a wait & see scenario.

 

FWIW the NAVGEM run that I used as a forecast here ( 18z 20th 0-144) is still what I expect to see.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=0&carte=1&archive=1&mois=1&heure=18&jour=20&annee=2014

 

I think you will see the ECM back the UKMO tonight.

S

Morning Steve, is that a gut feeling or are you seeing something..

 

Cheers

[Frosty.]

Well one thing is certain, if the met office outlook backs the ukmo 00z we will have a very wintry update with snow, ice and frosts galore by next week.

[frosty ground]

So GFS is broken ECM is broken and now UKMO is the model of choice except it doesn't go far enough out.

Steve I think you're getting far to biased these days or simply concentrating far too out in FI land where all models are fairly unreliable. I guess thats why they don't provide scores for them.

 

ECM doesn't seem to be doing any worse than ti was earlier in the year http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/new_acz5.html for day five and for day six http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/new_acz6.htm

If it's not cold it's broken........ It's basically Spam.

[shedhead]

Meanwhile, purely out of interest at least we are not the only part of the N Hemisphere experiencing a mild Winter.  850 temp 12-14c in parts of W Canada, with not one part of Alaska north of -5c line and only 30% north of the 0c line...that must be a first for late Jan.

 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Meanwhile, purely out of interest at least we are not the only part of the N Hemisphere experiencing a mild Winter.  850 temp 12-14c in parts of W Canada, with not one part of Alaska north of -5c line and only 30% north of the 0c line...that must be a first for late Jan.

 

West is not best eh ?!

[tinybill]

Well one thing is certain, if the met office outlook backs the ukmo 00z we will have a very wintry update with snow, ice and frosts galore by next week.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=6

 

i  wish  the only day we might see snow is Jan 29and that a  big might!!! then its back  to rain deep in to fantasy  world

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

[bluearmy]

observations form ecm ens:london ens firming up on a cold couple of day 29th/30th. the op was too calm at that timescale and also too warm days 9 and 10. however, what is unavoidable post month end on the ecm ens is for there to be more mobilty west to east and for the clustering of v cold runs to be draining away. we need the pattern to back sw or we are struggling for sustained cold. something akin to the ukmo next week always a possibility but no respite from the atlantic coming in behind. the extended ecm control caught my eye - i dont ususally pay too much attention to it but there was more blocking evident than recently for the period to follow week 2. not a great outlook but we do have a ticket to the raffle, infact we have several. up until last week, we couldnt even find somewhere to buy one.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Well here we go.  I mentioned last week that I think this AZH is killing us and that if it reamins it will continue to do so.  There is talk of the winter 'pivotal' point and it may well be approaching.  The following t120 chart is where we look.  We are taking a huge leap of faith anticipating this LP to disrupt and dive SSE.  Look at the AZH, for me it has no intention of ridging north or NE and on that basis I think a lobe off the LP will just shred SE but we'll go on to see status quo.

 

 

UKMO looks very good....but is there any reason to expect the synoptics to do what we want this time?  For me, I have mentioned in my Jan forecast that we may get a strat warming end of Jan, but it don't look like being any PV busting warming and so I see no reason for the cold blast to develop other than a possible passing shot.  If the PV drops into the US again, then round we go again.  

So yes we may be reaching pivotal point [for winter] but that doesn't mean winter weather is over.........the pattern 'has to change' at sometime...and I wouldn't mind betting that we may see an early Spring a lot colder than winter [at this rate that won't take much].  So eyes down for next few days.....it may be up for grabs as even the professionals are 'watching' rather than committing

 

BFTP

[legritter]

West is not best eh ?!

 

Meanwhile, purely out of interest at least we are not the only part of the N Hemisphere experiencing a mild Winter.  850 temp 12-14c in parts of W Canada, with not one part of Alaska north of -5c line and only 30% north of the 0c line...that must be a first for late Jan.

 

as far as climate weather goes the last 7 weeks have been spectacular in the northern hemisphere ,but not for us coldies ,its a case of waiting for that big change ,i say coldies as i mean here in the UK but theres time left we just need the dice to fall right .

[bluearmy]

 

Meanwhile, purely out of interest at least we are not the only part of the N Hemisphere experiencing a mild Winter.  850 temp 12-14c in parts of W Canada, with not one part of Alaska north of -5c line and only 30% north of the 0c line...that must be a first for late Jan.

 

  

 

didnt they have cold in december ? it may be that feb sees the trough back west again. that could tie in with a generally retrogressive hemispheric movement ...............

[Kentspur]

Well one thing is certain, if the met office outlook backs the ukmo 00z we will have a very wintry update with snow, ice and frosts galore by next week.

I do hope so as a snow starved Kentish man I will be looking forward even more to my journey up north to see spurs on Feb 1St surely better chance of seeing some of the white stuff in Hull than down south here?:-)

[ukpaul]

So GFS is broken ECM is broken and now UKMO is the model of choice except it doesn't go far enough out.

UKMO is always the model of choice for the UK, It doesn't go out too far but it would appear to be calibrated to focus on events here (as would JMA for Japan etc.).

[seabreeze86]

Plenty of interest in the GEFS with run number 16 being my personal favorite 

 

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-16-1-162.png?6

 

 

A quick run threw shows a multitude of outcomes but quite a few much better that the OP.

 

Lets hope the UKMO is leading the way, normally with the ECM being poor i would be conceding that proper cold is unlikely. But the ECM has been poor so far this winter so that gives me hope.

[draztik]

This shows snow in the North sea? These honestly cannot be reliable less than 20%?

!! I was trying to be upbeat lol! This place seemed a bit glum. Watching the tennis atm, is like our winter. Andy is fighting back, but you just know it will be too little too late