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Somerset Squall

Tropical Storm Lingling

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The first tropical storm of the 2014 West Pacific season has formed close to and just east of the Southern Philippines. The precursor to this storm's formation has dumped some very heavy rains over the southern Philippines, causing flooding here. Winds are currently at 35kts. Lingling is trapped in a weak steering environment and is currently heading on an unusual track southeast. The storm is expected to turn southwest and make landfall within the next 24 hours. The LLCC has already become exposed from the convection due to shear, so Lingling shouldn't become any stronger prior to landfall.

This is not necessarily an early start to the season. Weak January tropical storms and depressions are fairly common in this basin, particularly at low latitude.

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This track map shows this system has certainly been an erratic tracker!

 

Posted Image

Edited by Somerset Squall
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This track map shows this system has certainly been an erratic tracker!

 

Indeed, Lingling didn't like having a straightforward path, it was a very stubborn cyclone! Was because the last advisory has been issued by JTWC, as most of the convection has been sheared northwestward and the LLCC (low level circulation center) has become ill-defined.

 

The very odd track of Lingling can be seen below:

Posted Image

 

Moreover, the stubbornity of Lingling was also evident in the JTWC forecasts. The JTWC consistently forecasted Lingling to make landfall on the large southern island on the Phillipines, but it just refused to do so. Instead of the forecasted southwestward track, it continued moving southeastward up to its demise.

 

The southwestward track forecasted by the JTWC was definitely not unreasonable, giving the strong northeastern surge evident from 1000 to 700 hPa height, as visible on earth.nullschool. Analysis on this site doesn't give a clear explanation for the southeastward track of Lingling.

 

The demise of Lingling can be clearly attributed to the easterly shear, as seen in the GIF loop below:

Posted Image

 

The convection can clearly be seen developing, moving rapidly westward and subsequently dissipating. Earth.nullschool shows this at the 250 hPa level, showing winds blowing from the southeast to the northwest (curving to the north later on). The 250 hPa level is around the height of the tropopause (approximately 10 km). Convective clouds reach up to about this height when they develop. Due to the present steering winds at that level, they are blown away to the northwest. Data from CIMSS does justify the (south)easterly shear, as can be seen below:

 

Posted Image

 

More worryingly is the large amounts of rainfall being unleashed on the Philippines by the remnants of Lingling. Rainfall totals up to 900 mm have been recorded in the eastern part of the southern big island of the Philippines. Knocker posted a thread about this rainfall, and a short article about the extremity of the event. This can be seen below: 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79121-phillippine-rainfall-and-flooding/

 

The very heavy rain is continuing, mainly because of Lingling. Convection from Lingling is being sheared over the southern island, giving a continuous renewal of rain at that location. Right now (at the time of writing) an impressive burst of convection is impacting the island. Let's hope people there will stay safe.

 

Sources:

http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-246.83,11.67,950

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/01W/01W_floater.html

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79121-phillippine-rainfall-and-flooding/

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=westpac&sat=wgms∏=shr&zoom=&time=

http://www.csgnetwork.com/pressurealtcalc.html

Edited by Vorticity0123
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A south-southeasterly moving tropical cyclone in the Western Pacific is certainly unusual! It's been an interesting little cyclone to track.

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First storm in the year claims 40 in Philippines

 

Posted Image

 

Lingling expected to affect the southern main island of Mindanao until Wednesday

 

Manila: The death toll from the first storm to batter the Philippines this year has climbed to 40, officials said on Sunday as authorities in Eastern and Northern Mindanao continue to make preparations for its onslaught. Due to its slow five kilometres per hour movement, tropical depression “Lingling†is expected to affect the southern main island of Mindanao until Wednesday, the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), said.
 
Lingling, referred to in the Philippines as tropical depression “Agaton,†is bringing 55 kilometres per hour winds and storm signal No 1 continues to be observed in the provinces of Surigao del Sur, Agusan del Sur, Davao Oriental, Davao del Norte, Davao del Sur and Compostella Valley. “Orange Rainfall Alert is being observed in certain areas and estimated rainfall amount is from 5 to 15 millimetre per hour (moderate to heavy) within the 300 kilometres diameter of the Tropical Depression. It is expected to bring moderate to occasionally heavy rains and thunderstorms over Bohol, Siquijor, Northern Mindanao and the rest of Caraga Region,†PAGASA said.
 
Lingling had evolved from a low-pressure weather system several days ago and now a tropical depression that us threatening to bring more rains and misery to the provinces of Surigao Del Sur and Compostela Valley. As a precaution, the military’s Eastern Mindanao Command on Sunday said its units have assisted local government branches in the area in the pre-emptive evacuation of residents. According to Eastern Mindanao Command spokesperson Captain Alberto Caber, soldiers are helping the Surigao Del Sur provincial government enforce pre-emptive evacuations in the coastal communities of Cantilan and Cortez towns and Tandag City. In its 4pm Sunday bulletin, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) said the number of people killed from the effects of Lingling had reached 40 in Mindanao while the affected population had reached 590,000.
 
Meanwhile, more than 10,000 Indonesians have fled their homes in the capital due to flooding that has left five dead, an official said on Sunday, with people using rubber dinghies and wading through waist-deep water to reach safer ground, AFP reports. Many parts of Jakarta were under murky, brown water, while on the vast archipelago’s northern Sulawesi island the death toll from flash floods and landslides rose to 19. Buildings in some parts of sprawling capital, which has a population of 10 million and is regularly afflicted by floods during the six-month rainy season, were half submerged, with roads unpassable in many areas. “So far 10,530 people in Jakarta have been displaced by floods caused by heavy rains,†disaster agency official Tri Budiarto said. Five people have so far been killed in the past week due to flooding, officials have said previously. Budiarto confirmed the toll and said those killed had either died by drowning or being electrocuted. However, the floods were yet to reach the same level as last year when the central business district was left under water.
 
On Sulawesi, around 40,000 people were still displaced following flash floods and landslides earlier in the week, local disaster agency chief Christian Laotongan said. “The floods have subsided but houses were wrecked, and furniture and belongings were damaged, so people have not been able to return,†he added. Rescuers on Saturday recovered the body of a woman from a landslide in Tomohon city, Laotongan said, bringing the death toll in the area to 19. Indonesia is regularly affected by deadly floods and landslides during its wet season. Environmentalists blame logging and a failure to reforest denuded land for exacerbating the floods.

 

 

 

http://gulfnews.com/news/world/other-world/first-storm-in-the-year-claims-40-in-philippines-1.1279450

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