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The second tropicl cyclone of the South Pacific season has formed just north of New Caledonia. Winds are at 35kts. June is expected to mover over New Caledonia over the next day or two, delivering heavy rains and high winds here. Strengthening is also expected, as shear is expected to remain low, and outflow is good. June already has deep, centralised convection and good formative banding features, indicative of a healthy storm. The cyclone is expected to head generally poleward over the next few days due to ridging to the east.

 

 

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The second tropicl cyclone of the South Pacific season has formed just north of New Caledonia. Winds are at 35kts. June is expected to mover over New Caledonia over the next day or two, delivering heavy rains and high winds here. Strengthening is also expected, as shear is expected to remain low, and outflow is good. June already has deep, centralised convection and good formative banding features, indicative of a healthy storm. The cyclone is expected to head generally poleward over the next few days due to ridging to the east.

 

Indeed, it looks like a pretty well-organized storm! However, a satellite loop shows that June has got some trouble sustaining central convection. The cyclone consists of a very well-defined band of convection extending all the way from the northeast to the south of June. Unfortunately, as New Calendonia will be located on the eastern flank of June, they will experience the most intense convection and precipitation.

 

Posted Image

 

The intensity seems to be higher than the 35 kt as analyzed by JTWC, given the well-organized structure of the cyclone. Evidence for a higher intensity is an OSCAT pass, showing winds up to 50 kt to the south of the cyclone. The strongest winds are currently affecting New Calendonia itself.

 

Posted Image

 

The 50 kt winds can be seen as the triangles over and to the west of New Calendonia.

 

Current Water Vapor imagery shows that June is encircled by a vast area of dry air to its far south and west. Though the area of dry air is still pretty far away from the center of the cyclone, it could pose a threat to the intensification of the cyclone in the long term.

 

Posted Image

 

Note the very dry air (black colors) to the west and south of June.

 

What is also interesting to note is that the GFS has had the cyclone in its forecast for about 5 days ahead! The GFS has also been very agressive on the intensification of the cyclone, as shown in the image below:

 

Posted Image

The actual position of the cyclone is given by the C on the map.

 

The minimum surface level pressure (in its tropical stage) is forecast to be around 980 hPa, indicative of a category 1 cyclone. The cyclone is forecast to intensify rapidly once it reaches extratropical status. The GFS forecasts the system to deepen to a pressure of around 960 hPa at the end of the forecast. Moreover, the northern part of New Zeeland is also in the line of fire of the (extratropical remnants of) June.

 

The JTWC forecast is somewhat less agressive. It shows maximum winds of up to 45 knots, which is lower than has been analyzed by the OSCAT pass I showed above. And therefore, I think the intensity forecast will be upgraded in the short term, given the OSCAT pass.

Posted Image

 

It will be interesting to see wheather June will also be able to intensify rapidly, as many more cyclones before June have done so in the Southern Hemisphere this year.

 

Sources:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/10P/imagery/

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/austeast/images/wvgms.GIF

http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/products/OSCAT.php

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/14011712/8.html

http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/

Edited by Vorticity0123
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Tropical Cyclone June causes winds to pick up in New Caledonian capital

 

Posted Image

 

The New Caledonian capital Noumea is beginning to feel the effects of Tropical Cyclone June.

 
Weather forecasters in Fiji say Tropical Cyclone June - a relatively weak Category One system - is 325 kilometres west north-west of Noumea.
 
June is heading south south-east at 22 kilometres per hour.
 
Duty forecaster at the Fiji Meteorological Service in Nadi, Sanjay Prakash, says the windspeed near the centre of the cyclone is estimated to be around 75 kilometres per hour.
 
Winds have eased in northern New Caledonia but around the capital Noumea have begun to increase.
 
Mr Prakash says Noumea can expect gale force winds, heavy rain at times and squally thunderstorms for the next several hours.
 
"I anticipate the winds to pick up to around 45 knots (83 km/h) close to the centre gusting to 65 knots (120km/h) by midnight," Mr Prakash said.
 
"After that it will weaken as it goes south and probably declassified as a tropical cyclone by midday tomorrow (Sunday) or afternoon tomorrow."
 
Ex Tropical Cyclone June, as it will then be known, is tipped to reach Norfolk Island on Monday morning

 

 

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-01-18/an-new-cal-cyclone/5206698

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June has peaked at 40kts but has since been impacted by shear. This has caused the majority of convection to be sheared south of the LLCC through today. Shear is not expected to let up, so June should begin to weaken soon, and then begin extratropical transition as it slips south. Heavy rains will continue for a while for New Caledonia but should then ease as June moves away towards New Zealand.

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