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South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 16/01/14


Snowangel-MK

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

We need snow !! Posted Image

 

and not just an ickle bit either!

 

Posted Image

What time is the snow coming?

 

December?

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Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.

Further to my previous post -ensembles are now showing severe gale-force winds for next Monday.Posted Image Seems a return to a vigorous jet streak and resultant deep lows - the last thing so many need.  I'm afraid to say that I now reckon spring can't come soon enough.

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Posted
  • Location: Hailsham, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow and ice days
  • Location: Hailsham, East Sussex

According to some on the main thread we can now, on 20th January, safely write off this winter and look ahead to 2014/2015.

 

It's funny but I could have sworn that I got a covering of snow last March but maybe my memory's playing tricks with me (not for the first time)

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Posted
  • Location: Great Yarmouth
  • Location: Great Yarmouth

Further to my previous post -ensembles are now showing severe gale-force winds for next Monday.Posted Image Seems a return to a vigorous jet streak and resultant deep lows - the last thing so many need.  I'm afraid to say that I now reckon spring can't come soon enough.

sorry i've totally lost track now, are these gale force winds for this region or uk in general?

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Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.

According to some on the main thread we can now, on 20th January, safely write off this winter and look ahead to 2014/2015.

 

 

From what I've seen they might (for once) be right.

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Posted
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=319&y=150&run=12&runpara=0&type=1&ext=1

 

gfs pressure charts for 12z

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

 

i will call fi on the 25th

 

and thats being generous

 

Posted Image

 

maybe i am seeing things but the mean from the 27th looks COLD and drier

 

why are people writing off winter in january ?Posted Image

 

ukmo looks cold for us down here and will show this later

 

john

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Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.

sorry i've totally lost track now, are these gale force winds for this region or uk in general?

 

Too far out to be confident either way I suspect, Jenny, but worth keeping an eye on.  As stated above, Ian Ferguson is confident to the Met Office sees heavy rain on Friday night, seemingly with a return to deep Atlantic lows as we had during much of December.  Really, the only difference seems to be that the flow may be more WNW than due W, so it's likely to be a case of heavy rain, gales and cold rather than heavy rain, gales and mild.Posted Image

Edited by chrisbell-nottheforecaster
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Posted
  • Location: Great Yarmouth
  • Location: Great Yarmouth

Too far out to be confident either way I suspect, Jenny, but worth keeping an eye on.  As stated above, Ian Ferguson is confident to the Met Office sees heavy rain on Friday night, seemingly with a return to deep Atlantic lows as we had during much of December.  Really, the only difference seems to be that the flow may be more WNW than due W, so it's likely to be a case of heavy rain, gales and cold rather than heavy rain, gales and mild.Posted Image

Wish I hadn't asked now.

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Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.

Wish I hadn't asked now.

 

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news - I wish I could report that the ensembles were showing dry weather - I suspect many would be quite happy with the Azores high putting-in an appearance even though it would probably kill-off any chance of snow.  Sadly, it seems that a return (at least for next week) to more zonal conditions seems likely.  From what I can understand, the polar vortex is at present so strong that it's withstanding changes in the upper atmosphere which should weaken it, thereby easing the Atlantic influence.

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Posted
  • Location: ramsgate 42m asl
  • Location: ramsgate 42m asl

Too far out to be confident either way I suspect, Jenny, but worth keeping an eye on.  As stated above, Ian Ferguson is confident to the Met Office sees heavy rain on Friday night, seemingly with a return to deep Atlantic lows as we had during much of December.  Really, the only difference seems to be that the flow may be more WNW than due W, so it's likely to be a case of heavy rain, gales and cold rather than heavy rain, gales and mild.Posted Image

Ian fergie has just posted on the mad thread that the glosea model also shows march and april mild to average, wait for the wrist slashing and toys being thrown about over on the dark side of netweather 

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Posted
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)

hi chris

 

i am not convinced that will be the set up for the south east

 

anyway i will try to explain in more detail later

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Posted
  • Location: Great Yarmouth
  • Location: Great Yarmouth

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news -

I didn't mean that to sound like I was having a go at you, I just wonder how much more the poor people can take who have had storm and rain damage, and then we have Surrey reporting that the river levels are dangerously high, so that could become a problem there, I think a return to the gales and heavy rain we had a while ago could be a very bad thing.

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Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.

Ian fergie has just posted on the mad thread that the glosea model also shows march and april mild to average, wait for the wrist slashing and toys being thrown about over on the dark side of netweather 

 

Indeed, but I'm afraid I'm about to join them - not because I'm desperate for cold and snow, but because, if the glosea model is correct (which it seems to have been all winter), we're staring down the barrel of at least two more months of torrential rain, the prospect of which I find worrying for many areas already saturated now.

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Posted
  • Location: ramsgate 42m asl
  • Location: ramsgate 42m asl

Indeed, but I'm afraid I'm about to join them - not because I'm desperate for cold and snow, but because, if the glosea model is correct (which it seems to have been all winter), we're staring down the barrel of at least two more months of torrential rain, the prospect of which I find worrying for many areas already saturated now.

he did say that the cfs shows the same outcome and we know how that performs sometimes, so perhaps there is still hope

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Posted
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)

Ian fergie has just posted on the mad thread that the glosea model also shows march and april mild to average, wait for the wrist slashing and toys being thrown about over on the dark side of netweather 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

and they was saying last night they couldnt work out the weekend Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.

he did say that the cfs shows the same outcome and we know how that performs sometimes, so perhaps there is still hope

I've just sent him a PM asking for a clarification of his comments on behalf of those this thread who are concerned by the prospect of another month or two of heavy rain.

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Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

and they was saying last night they couldnt work out the weekend Posted Image

Hi John - Ian's comments are the reason I've gone over to the "winter is a write-off" camp - his posts are reading like those from some of the most rampant mild-lovers' at present.

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Posted
  • Location: Great Yarmouth
  • Location: Great Yarmouth

Indeed, but I'm afraid I'm about to join them -we're staring down the barrel of at least two more months of torrential rain, the prospect of which I find worrying for many areas already saturated now.

Not to mention, as I am sure you have already considered, what that will do to crops and the price of food.I had already heard this year that there was to be root vegetable shortage very soon if the ground is not suitable for growing.

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Posted
  • Location: ramsgate 42m asl
  • Location: ramsgate 42m asl

Hi John - Ian's comments are the reason I've gone over to the "winter is a write-off" camp - his posts are reading like those from some of the most rampant mild-lovers' at present.

if anybody is brave enough ,the post from fergie is no 244 on the mad thread, sorry I cant post it on here as I do not know how to do it,, self confessed technophobe

Edited by PLANET THANET
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Posted
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)

ecm at 120

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

now at 144

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

we keep colder uppers here

 

and atlantic is bring pushed back

 

high pressure close enough to keep us quite dry

 

 

sorry chris no digs at you

 

but any model after 5 days is unreliable at present

 

when they make one it will be very quiet in here

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Posted
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)

at 168

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

Posted Image

 

thats wet

 

and undercut territory

 

may not be as bad as some think

 

but thats fi still and will stick at 120 as per normal

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if anybody is brave enough ,the post from fergie is no 244 on the mad thread, sorry I cant post it on here as I do not know how to do it,, self confessed technophobe

If you click the share link which looks like a < next to the post number, this will give you the link reference to paste in your post.

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