South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 16/01/14

[chillyblast]

Raining here too, pretty much sums up the entirety of winter here - mostly mild (11c today) and either sun / wind, showers / wind - rinse and repeat, not to be disrespectful re: storms and damage done but what a dull winter so far, good for running / cycling etc though I guess although not if you want to run on the trails (saturated in mud / water).

[Chloe]

Just had a pretty intense rain shower no thunder or lightning as yet ( rain has started up again

Edited January 16, 2014 by Chloe

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Proper heavy shower just going through here. Seen some very impressive cb's for mid January today, anyone would think it was April. 

Can quite honestly say that this is turning into one of the mildest wettest winters Ive ever experienced in my lifetime, very much like the 90's indeed. Amazing that it hasn't even come close to snowing yet, not by a mile. Can count on one hand the amount of frosts we've had too so far. 

 

PS - just look at Spring start over the Med in FI ! 10c uppers not too far from our shores either. Anyone want a definition of a Barty high? FI is your answer to that question !

Edited January 16, 2014 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Vodafone is down!

[john pike]

 

 

[Bluebreezer54]

The radar is showing a lively looking area heading towards the Isle of Wight so I'll be checking this webcam from time to time:

 

http://driftwoodbeachbar.com/webcam/

 

And this one at Bognor............http://www.bognorregisbeach.co.uk/live

 

 

 

 

NB: The Bognor cam is particularly nice at the moment with the moonlit sea

Edited January 16, 2014 by Bluebreezer54

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

A couple of short lived showers here in Reigate so far this afternoon.

 

Latest from Fergieweather just posted on the MOD thread:

 

Update (just off blower to UKMO) - midnight MOGREPS-15 reduced easterly signal to circa 25% members for end of next week (so dropping back closer to expectations and in line with EC). Nonetheless, dichotomy of solutions is being watched very closely and the overriding message from Ops Centre is that the easterly solution remains very much a possibility and is by no means discounted at this juncture. Confidence low. However, rain Sat on occlusion in W Country northwards grabs the attention for now.... not good.  

 

Looks like v bad news about more rain..... plus lower chances of easterly (mind you, that was the case a couple of days ago and then up it went, so who knows, apart from our friend Shannon maybe?)

 

AS

Darren Bett after the news said that weekend forecast keeps changing and that's at T48 no wonder the models are struggling to show us what will happen

[john pike]

 

i normally scoff a north westerlies

 

not this time

 

also a couple more runs would be very interesing

 

fax update soon

[Jax]

Wet out here again, and looks set for the night too.  Damp is making it feel a lot cooler too than it is I think.

[stun12]

Clear blue sky here still, few clouds drifting around, I want some action!

 

Might be worth paying Sharon Entropy a visit...seems like she's making her presence known. Probably in Essex though. *hides*

 

Er, 8.1c, has been for the last 2 days. Murky. Dark, too.

[JennyJane1]

In two minds about the chart for the 24th, firstly I want to see some snow this winter!

 

but not then!

 

As Southernman is due to drive a few hundred miles that weekend, and I worry about it, especially in bad weather, I expect if it looks likely he'll join in the conversation nearer the time, he usually does when he wants to check conditions at various locations.

 

Also what's the point if he does get away, then it snows, I'll be all alone, its more fun when there's someone with you, and its snowing, and they're trained in making hot chocolate, filling hot water bottles, etc.

[john pike]

tonight for now

 

see the front about to hit the south east

 

may get a tad gusty later too

 

rainfall

 

as the front moves north over night

 

we may see some heavier bursts of rain

 

and more likely midnight on

 

the heaviest rain likely the further south east you go

 

temps

 

due to rain and cloud a frost is unlikely

 

we may see temps drop close though to the west of the region

 

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

Edited January 16, 2014 by john pike

[Snowangel-MK]

Oh contrare MK, that's pushing me well past any excitement limits I've experienced for a while !

I don't want to push your excitement to the limits but in the past month it has rained for at least 2 hours during 47% of the days and was cloudy the majority of the day for another 24%. This means that it’s either rainy or cloudy 71% of the time. So after all the number crunching the end results would be something like this ..... Measured Entropy (bits) = 1.28570947991Theoretical max: 2.58496250072Probability(‘Cloudy’) = 0.23782234957Probability(‘Rainy’) = 0.47564469914...which basically means it's been cloudy and raining most of the time :-)

[SteveCoops]

Am I the only one who reads John's posts a bit like a poem due the way it's written in short lines? Makes it much nicer when delivering the update even when it's bad news I still feel moved haha

 

 

Oh JP shouldn't you link to netweather's radar instead of raintoday to support this site? I've moved my subscription over from there to here.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=radar;sess=

[john pike]

hi bjaykent

 

as you know i follow the fax charts then align them up

 

with ukmo and the ecm runs

 

the 120 runs are going so far so good

 

after tonight if they match i will be getting confident

 

the big key is losing high pressure to our south east

 

the 244 chart has bags of potential

 

the charts before are not too bad either

 

 

heres a little tip

 

if we are in zonal, gfs in fi will more than likely be right

 

when a change is coming

 

look elsewhere

[Keraunic]

Vodafone is down!

Hmmm! 3 was down for ages yesterday and I couldn't send msgs. Mind you, their coverage/signals aren't that good at the best of times. Had some rain here but not that heavy and definitely no thunder.

[john pike]

 

Am I the only one who reads John's posts a bit like a poem due the way it's written in short lines? Makes it much nicer when delivering the update even when it's bad news I still feel moved haha

 

 

Oh JP shouldn't you link to netweather's radar instead of raintoday to support this site? I've moved my subscription over from there to here.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=radar;sess=

 

 

hi steve

 

im just a rebel

[Snowangel-MK]

Might be worth paying Sharon Entropy a visit...seems like she's making her presence known. Probably in Essex though. *hides* 

I think your talking about a different Shannon .....*rolls eyes*

[HammerJack]

Have had quite a few heavy showers in the last hour or so. And the heavest, longest and the one which incorporated hail happened whilst I was out running. Me head is stinging now..... Now for a nice hot shower in the comfort of my bathroom :-)

BTW - loving the charts JP

[JennyJane1]

Definately very chilly here tonight, my hands are freezing.

[Captain Shortwave]

torrential rain and hail yet again. When will this end, and will the end be snow????

   

[Summer of 76]

I think your talking about a different Shannon .....

image.jpg

*rolls eyes*

or one that's in the shipping forecast

[Jax]

rain, rain and more rain here.  mild though still.  about to settle down and watch hidden kingdom on BBC1 (been looking forward to this for months)

just waiting for the dross currently on BBC 1 to finish (it is like a torture, cr4p program, why of why do people watch this stuff?)

[john pike]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JQ5jTAISutM

 

i prefer this shannon

[ZONE 51]

Fire smoke seen from space:

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-york-north-yorkshire-25767218

Edited January 16, 2014 by ElectricSnowStorm