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South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 16/01/14


Snowangel-MK

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Posted
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)

right here we go again

 

tonight

 

Posted Image

no wind

 

weak south west to north west flow

 

temps

 

Posted Image

Posted Image

cold and a frost most regions

 

the exception is the far north east which looks very misty and foggy

 

fog may be an issue tomorrow morning for rural and coastal areas

 

hence the gritters due to ice risk

 

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

tomorrow

 

Posted Image

a weak south west flow

 

rain

 

Posted Image

 

none

 

got a feeling fog may persist north-north east of our region for a while

 

temps

Posted Image

 

around 6 degrees

 

colder where fog sticks

 

i would call colder here but wind direction should help keep temps up

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

tomorrow night

 

Posted Image

a breezy south west flow

 

rain not here yet at midnight

 

Posted Image

but not far away

Posted Image

 

becoming persisant and quie heavy

 

watch for flood warnings now

 

temps

 

Posted Image

around 4-5 degrees

 

if out it will not feel pleasant

 

a lovely walk to work for me on wednesday morning :(

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

wednesday

Posted Image

 

a cold north west to west flow

 

note the front still stuck over us

 

rain

 

Posted Image

should finally ease off just after lunch

 

but more rain but not as heavy during the afternoon

 

temps

 

Posted Image

around 5-7 degrees

 

feeling raw

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

wednesday night

 

Posted Image

a cold north west flow

 

rainfall

Posted Image

 

looks dry and cold most areas

 

but trough on the fax could cross overnight causing some showers

 

temps

Posted Image

 

where the skys clear it will get cold

 

ice may be an issue and fog also

 

keep watch for tomorrows update

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

thursday

 

Posted Image

 

a very cold north west wind

 

note the front over us again

 

rain

 

Posted Image

 

dry am

 

more heavy rain incoming after lunch

 

temps

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

rain may be a pest again

 

note as the colder air digs in on thursday night

 

we may see something wintry

 

maybe the lamp posts might get useful again

 

 

more later

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Posted
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)

heres what ian f just posted on the mod thread

 

... and there's a very good reason why they'll not get drawn too hastily in making pronouncements based on speculative or non-consensual modelling: because they are the de facto underpinning of UK-PWS weather warnings etc., and moreover are more than aware of the public 'fatigue' with seeing supposed 'snowmageddon/arctic blast/Siberian whiteout' hyperbole peddled to a largely non-specialist population by certain newspapers. This distinction between scaring the horses through the voodoo of Maddenology, versus measured, timely use of *Meteorology* and expressions of confidence (something you won't ever see expressed in newspaper articles: they are always 'certain' of the scary outcome), is key here. Equally, the 6-15/6-30d web forecasts are not created or written with enthusiasts etc in mind: they are there for Jo Public to comprehend and for that reason, you won't see talk of 'northern blocking' or 'Spanish Plumes' or whatever mechanisms. It's a poisoned chalice (as I've often said) writing these outlooks: rest assured most bench forecasters would far rather stick to preparing the 1-5d period narrative, rather than try to offer a reasoned explanation a fortnight or more ahead, strewn with model caveats and divergences way beyond the comprehension of most people reading it and thus rarely expressed in any detail. As for the period ahead, the UKMO assessment - as it stands - looks just fine: a broadly westerly-dominated story punctuated by threat of colder phases. The JMA solution is, be assured, one of many possible outcomes keenly watched at Ops Centre in so far as the 'colder phases' might be manifested. It might be instructive if the JMA solution is cited at all when their internal 6-15d assessment, based on 12z output, is circulated to us later tonight.

 

i think that explains it pretty well

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Posted
  • Location: Great Yarmouth
  • Location: Great Yarmouth

Hi JennyJane,

 

expect the cold has encouraged them inside, generally they remain active outside while the temp is 5c or more. There are certainly lots of different types in the UK but they all look the same once salted!Posted Image

I don't salt them! poor creatures! I talk to them and say things like "don't crawl there, someone will step on you",

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Posted
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)

and now the mod thread will be happy

 

from ian f just now

 

Ah but hang about: many very much more expert folk posting on here, I can assure you. Anyway - the similar trend in JMA and the 12z EC ENS has certainly caught the eye of colleagues. It's one to watch for where we head in the output over the next day or two, for sure.

 

no more mod threads posts now

 

i think i will stick with my own ideas Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Rayleigh, Essex
  • Location: Rayleigh, Essex

@liamdutton sounds a bit more confident of a bit of wintry weather end January on Twitter

 

And @alexdeakin is saying the opposite haha

Edited by SteveCoops
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Posted
  • Location: Ramsgate, Kent, UK.
  • Location: Ramsgate, Kent, UK.

WOW, 5 minutes ago the skies were clear and the viz was reasonable, now it's down to at least 800m, very quickly going down hill.

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Posted
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)

hi blake

 

be aware for ice tomorrow

 

the fog should reduce it to a degree

 

but you cannot entirely rule out the ice risk

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Posted
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.ensm.diff.shtml

 

have a look at the above link

 

see if anyone can spot what is wrong there

 

any takers?

 

have a look at the top graph

 

thats the current nao

 

now the stronger that is the stronger the jet is likely to be

 

now look at the graph below it

 

it shows the 7 day 10 day then 14 forecasts

 

they are clearly overdoing it

 

thats why i am not convinced on any further output at present

Edited by john pike
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Posted
  • Location: Brentford, West London (from Wales originally)
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy, windy, cold.
  • Location: Brentford, West London (from Wales originally)

Evening all!! Foggy here, gonna be interesting in morning I reckon..

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Posted
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cool not cold, warm not hot. No strong Wind.
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.ensm.diff.shtml

 

have a look at the above link

 

see if anyone can spot what is wrong there

at a guess  the top NAO is at odds with the others?

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Posted
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cool not cold, warm not hot. No strong Wind.
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire

hi jax

 

correct i answered it above

ahh, I saw the original post (back reading as I was away watching the telly) and was pondering it for a while so missed your last post  Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cool not cold, warm not hot. No strong Wind.
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire

Evening all!! Foggy here, gonna be interesting in morning I reckon..

OOOH, you just made me go and look out the window and indeed it is both foggy/misty and frosty here too (I can see the return to work at silly o'clock in the dark tomorrow morning is set to be fun then)

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Posted
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cool not cold, warm not hot. No strong Wind.
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire

Thick fog looking down the street - can't see more than three houses away, yet the moon is as clear as anything!

RUN! the moon is crashing into us

 

 

 

*legs it*

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Posted
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)

Posted Image

 

friday

 

Posted Image

 

cold

 

north west to south west and will be breezy

 

dry am precipitation pm

 

temps around 5-6 degrees

 

---------------------------------------------------------------------

 

saturday

 

Posted Image

 

a cold and strong north west wind

 

cold front incoming but will probably weaken as it gets here

 

temps

 

Posted Image

around 8 degrees

 

but noticeable windchill

 

note high pressure still strong to our north east

 

low above us likely to start to head south

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Posted
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)

thanks bjay kent

 

looks like we may have a late night thursday

 

even just to see something would be nice

 

my interest is in the outlook when the low above us on sturday heads south

 

it will be interesting if it goes where i think it will Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cool not cold, warm not hot. No strong Wind.
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire

Interesting for the weekend there JP, it is a start like you say but not expecting the cold front to "do much" (I do like the FAX charts, they seem to make more sense, and I am a complete numpty on this stuff)

 

Posted Image

Edited by Jax
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