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xmetman

Cold Spring following Mild Winter?

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Hi

I read a post on the UK Science Weather newsgroup yesterday talking about the likelihood of a cold spring following a mild winter. I decided to create a scatter graph of winters and springs from the monthly Central England Temperature series just to see if there were any indications of any clustering, and if there was some truth to it. I couldn’t just use plain mean temperatures for winter (DJF) and spring (MAM), because that wouldn’t indicate if the season had been warm or cold, so I first calculated anomalies by subtracting the 1961-1990 seasonal means from the values.

I am no statistician, and although I did calculate a correlation/covariance coefficient, I’m not confident about the value of 0.44 that I came up with because it looks a little high, and I think you’ll agree with me that points in the graph look well and truly scattered! The formulae that I used to calculate the covariance came straight out of Wikipedia, so If any of my readers has a better way of doing the calculation please let me know!

Bruce.

http://xmetman.wordpress.com/2014/01/15/cold-spring-following-mild-winter/

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I hope spring is not a cold one, last year was a mare and dragged on far too long as well as killed a number of my shrubs aswell.

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I think there's a strong likelihood of another cold Spring , how cold who knows. Like the post above says weather comes in patterns and we have not seen anything from the East or N/NW, so the likelihood of seeing this sort of pattern form sometime in the next few months must be quite high I would of have thought.

Edited by Sceptical Inquirer

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That would assume the weather has a memory or even a 'mind' to decide what to do.There's an equal chance we will continue with a basically westerly flow, but hopefully the HP to the south will gain in strength at least from time to time.In spring an easterly is not always cold, it may be relatively warm especially by April, but coastal areas may suffer chilly sea fog.The long fetch easterly we endured for most of six weeks last Spring was very unusual.Northerly outbreaks can be very potent in the spring and give dazzling sun and perhaps showers that readily turn wintry or even become short-lived mini-blizzards.

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If anything the most likely trend is usually to continue as it is now.

I recall a study found that if you 'forecast' that tomorrow would be similar to today you got it right more often than the Met Office! 

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The weather will do what it will do. As I said yesterday, Mother Nature balancing out theory falls apart when you try and pin down with specific events. You can't say B happened because it was balancing out A.

If you look at a lot of recent mild winters, they were not followed by cold springs. 1989-90 for example was not followed by a cold spring. 2006-07 wasn't. Last spring came after a coolish winter overall.

You have to go back to 1877 for a very mild winter followed by a really cool spring, which was close to last year's spring CET value.

1975 was a very mild winter followed by a pretty cool spring.

I think the idea that the spring being more wintry than a previous very mild winter has more credence. Look at 1974-75, 1988-89, 1994-95, 1997-98, 2007-08 as examples.

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If anything the most likely trend is usually to continue as it is now.

I recall a study found that if you 'forecast' that tomorrow would be similar to today you got it right more often than the Met Office! 

 

yes that featured in the in house Met magazine many many years ago

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Mild winters are often followed by warm/hot summers..74-5,75-76, 88-89,89-90,94-95 are good recent examples

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Mild winters are often followed by warm/hot summers..74-5,75-76, 88-89,89-90,94-95 are good recent examples

 

But there are also examples of mild winters being followed by crap summers, 1998 and 2007 spring to mind.

 

Its all pretty random, you can find examples linking almost anything if you look hard enough in the series. At the end of the day its a chaotic system, thats why its so hard to forecast.

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Sadly you can't pattern match if you could they wouldn't be any need for the met office you'd just look previous years and bingo.

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Isn't having a cold spring after a mild winter a bit of a kick in the teeth??

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I hope so. I Love the cold. :) Wish it was cold all year round. But I would be happy if it was cool. As long as it isn't warm.

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Isn't having a cold spring after a mild winter a bit of a kick in the teeth??

If it's followed by a warm summer like last year, it shouldn't be.

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If this wet, mildish weather does continue into early February i, for one, will be hoping we get an early warm Spring.

Not a fan of cool/cold March or April.

I suspect this weather will not change much into late Jan and February, despite what some on NW, who are the reknowned 'experts' say.

I cant remember many mild, wet Decembers/Januarys suddenly seeing a switch to a cold February. Maybe a cold few days or one week in early Feb.

And before people roll out the 1947 reference, there were already some cold spells during that Winter, before the severe snow and cold set in, at end of Jan.

We've not even had a sleet shower here, so far. At the mo this winter reminds me of the early/mid 70s winters.

Edited by Bristle boy
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I cant remember many mild, wet Decembers/Januarys suddenly seeing a switch to a cold February. .

It has happened, so within climatic probabilities.
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I want a cold Spring, well Mar and april anyway, it is the snow season so no mild weather hopefully, at least if mild it should be high pressure rather than low

 

May, maybe i do want it to warm up, as its too late in season for snow here

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Can I order a cold March, varied April and warm May, please?

 

Yes you can order it, but I can't guarantee delivery

 

Posted Image

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Why was the Spring discussion thread locked?

The first winter thread was started at the beginning of September

I started an autumn thread in the first week of July.

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It has happened, so within climatic probabilities.

And my post said "I cant remember many...." not ever, so yes it has happened, but many? Not down here (imby) i suspect.

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Why was the Spring discussion thread locked?The first winter thread was started at the beginning of SeptemberI started an autumn thread in the first week of July.

Well whatever the reason it is, it's inconsistent going off the above facts.But what I was going to say in that thread is that we've not had a really chilly April since 1989, that was the last sub 7C CET one. It can only be a matter of time before we get one. We've had three 10.0C and above in the last 7 years.
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It is nice to not have the heating on full whack so far this winter, last winter I was sooooo glad I was not in the flat as that was a PAYG key leccy meter and that would have finished me off financially, at least now I can spread the load over the year a bit.

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I have a gas metre - surprisingly, I don't use much gas. It pales in comparison to my electric usage in any case.

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I have a gas metre - surprisingly, I don't use much gas. It pales in comparison to my electric usage in any case.

all electric here, town barely got gas a few decades ago as it is.

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And my post said "I cant remember many...." not ever, so yes it has happened, but many? Not down here (imby) i suspect.

Off the top of my head1982-83, 1931-32, 1929-30, 1872-73, 1852-53Then you have those where the really wintry weather came in March such as 1936-37, 1882-83, 1868-69,
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