The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 14/1/14 21z ------>

[Dancerwithwings]

The GFS is always progressive on any run compared to other models, But if you look very carefully it was the UKMO that was showing, it's also been the best model by far this Winter.

Edited January 19, 2014 by Dancerwithwings

[PolarWarsaw]

Been away for most of the week, hoping to return to something like winter approaching. Nope, rain and some cooler days with the potential of some front-edge snow mixed in. Woeful, the pathetic winter continues.

[conor123]

The GFS is always progressive on any run compared to other models, But if you look very carefully it was the UKMO that was showing, it's also been the best model by far this Winter.

UKMO's updated output also has the low crashing through unfortunately, not as quickly as the GFS but it's going to take a pretty big upgrade with Wednesday's low undercutting and diving a lot lot further south to stand a chance, here's hoping the ECM is an improvement.

[Dancerwithwings]

Cold and dry for the next two days and foggy nights, days for some and where the fog does linger temps could stay around freezing.

Could be interesting, You never know it may feel like proper winter.

Edited January 19, 2014 by Dancerwithwings

[Dancerwithwings]

Those relentless gales we had seem like they happened ages ago now...bit of a lull welcomed by many I think.

From a hopecasting point of view lol...Next Fri daytime a cutting easterly sets in with temps hovering around 3-5C, windchill nearer -1C..mainly clear eve so temps slowly drop away closer to freezing before cloud invades. Winds increase, east/southeasterly as fronts nudge in, initially rain turns to sleet then some wet snow, higher ground no doubt fairing better re accumulation.

2 inches by dawn the snowfields keeping temps down as the biting easterly swings more north-easterly. Occasional grauple showers arrive, clearing later as a moderate frost sets in. Temps hover around -2C before more cloud thickens from the NE. Heavy snow showers ganging up on the east coast, gradually start to push inland on a stronger east to northeast flow, local falls of up to 8cm, snow showers quite frequent at times before clearing overnight as winds fall, leading to a sharp frost.

If that happens double lol I'll let you all know haha....

If that does happen... I'll take on the red sauce but not the hat & gloves, i would prefer egg curry, methinks

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Cold and dry for the next two days and foggy nights and days for some and where the fog does linger temps could stay around freezing.

Could be interesting, You never know it may feel like proper winter.

 

Yeah does look cold tomorrow, before a horrendous washout on tuesday, why cant the rain move through at night

[PolarWarsaw]

Awful, awful, awful 12z. 

 

I hope the summer is wet and super duper for all those mildies lapping up the crap winter... 

[Dancerwithwings]

Yeah does look cold tomorrow, before a horrendous washout on tuesday, why cant the rain move through at night

Don't know what forecast you watching, But theres no washout on tuesday, during Tuesday night if you like that sought of thing maybe, But thats what you wanted....

Happy days or nights even

Edited January 19, 2014 by Dancerwithwings

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Don't know what forecast your watching, But theres no washout on tuesday, during Tuesday night if you like that sought of thing maybe, But thats what you wanted....

Happy days or nights even

 

feel models are not being progressive enough, bbc says starting dry with rain soon spreading in from the west, seems to mean rain arriving early on say 9-10am

 

yesterday said, tuesday dry with rain arriving in the evening

[Dancerwithwings]

feel models are not being progressive enough, bbc says starting dry with rain soon spreading in from the west, seems to mean rain arriving early on say 9-10am

 

yesterday said, tuesday dry with rain arriving in the evening

Even your beloved GFS on the 12z run as it coming in Tuesday evening, You made me chuckle though  You just said "feel models are not being progressive enough"

You can't get more progressive than the GFS

Edited January 19, 2014 by Dancerwithwings

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Even your beloved GFS on the 12z run as it coming in Tuesday evening, You made me chuckle though  You just said "feel models are not being progressive enough"

You can't get more progressive than the GFS

 

on 00Z's will show it moving through earlier, bbc charts show a front ahead of the main front, Fax charts show it but dying out

[conor123]

Just had the gritter go down the road, random?? bits of cloud rolling in from the west so not falling below 3c here thus far.

[Nimbus Nix]

Some pretty dense fog on the NAE this evening for 9am tomorrow morning:

 

 

Would be nice to get a bit of freezing fog this winter as well, surely it isn't too much to ask for...?  

[Summer of 95]

Clear as a bell here, no wind, but yet again not freezing, save a thin layer on the windscreen. 2C still.

[Dancerwithwings]

Same here, clear, 1.2c, quite frosty though. Love them foggy days that linger and especially if its freezing all day.

Edited January 19, 2014 by Dancerwithwings

[Midlands Ice Age]

DWW...

 

Just beat me to it.

 

I have been recording -1.0C here in my back garden (fairly rural) for about an hour.

 

Frost is on cars and roads around here.

 

MIA.

[Dancerwithwings]

DWW...

 

Just beat me to it.

 

I have been recording -1.0C here in my back garden (fairly rural) for about an hour.

 

Frost is on cars and roads around here.

 

MIA.

Birmingham Airport is the same -1c (fairly rural) as well..... They did say that out in the sticks, it could get as low as -3c tonight.

Edited January 19, 2014 by Dancerwithwings

[Bishop Brennan]

It was certainly very frosty when I popped out for a quick walk at about ten o'clock. A beautiful clear night, and not a breath of wind.

 

Currently 0.2c, although just over an hour ago we'd dropped to -0.8c

 

Bish

[fizz511]

Blimey, it's come to something when the most exciting thing that's happened to us is a slight frost :/ I mean, what's the point of January with no snow and ice!

Has someone forgotten to put 10p in the winter-meter.......?

[fizz511]

Fog too!??? Yes I know, pretty hard to grasp, in Jan hehe...Friday night main talking point...LP v HP round 1

Yes, I shall be glued to the Model Output Discussion over the next few days.Shan't understand a word, but will be glued non the less!

[Dale Hay]

Cars, paths and the island outside are covered in the white stuff... ... ... sadly only frost, but hey-ho. Cold and chilly at the moment.

[Polar Maritime]

A cold icy morning with Fog and a moderate ground frost, low temp -2.9c

 

Temp -2.7c

Dp -0.7c

Wind Chill -0.2c  S/W 0mph

[Dale Hay]

Lowest here was at 7am, when I tottled down the shop. It was lovely! (Do enjoy frosty mornings when there's hardly a breeze)

 

7am: -2.3°C // 1004mb // 0.7mph (W)

[Polar Maritime]

Yes Dale nice and calm here to, almost no wind at all. The Fog is starting to get thicker now creating lots of Hoar.

[Midlands Ice Age]

Clear her this morning

 

Temp -3.8C at 08:00

 

MIA