California drying

[iapennell]

It is also interesting to note that the area around Perth on the SW Australian Coast has become drier over the last 30 years. Winter (June to August) rainfall has decreased by 30 to 40% on average and this has led to serious droughts in recent years. The cause has been a polewards retreat in the positions of the storm-tracks that encircle Antarctica, this means that the frontal systems embedded in the Southern Westerlies tend to miss SW Australia more often than not, even during the winter months. Thus the Mediterranean climatic regimes have been shifting polewards as a consequence of climate change and the subtropical hot deserts have slowly extended into regions vacated by Mediterranean -type regimes.

The consequences of these large -scale climatic shifts are plain for all to see with California, Arizona, Andalusia (southern Spain), parts of Portugal, Greece, central Chile and SW Australia all afflicted with severe droughts, wild-fires and the desertification of large chunks of their respective landscapes. 

[knocker]

Yes, the California Drought Continues

Quote

After California’s relatively wet winter and spring, there is a widespread perception that the drought may be over. Adding to this perception, on May 18 the State Water Resources Control Board suspended its urban water conservation regulation, instead allowing local water agencies to set their own conservation targets.

But the California drought is far from over. While storms have brought modest relief to parts of northern California, three-quarters of the state is still experiencing moderate to severe drought, and the south remains very dry. Unsustainable groundwater pumping has led residents in some areas to drill deeper and deeper wells, while others are without water. This over-pumping has depleted the state’s groundwater reserves to the point that it would take more than a decade of wet weather to replenish them. Meanwhile, the state’s temperatures continue to rise and some scientists are worried about the possibility of a megadrought worsened by climate change for the entire Southwest in the coming years.

http://pacinst.org/yes-the-california-drought-continues/

[knocker]

Wishful thinking won’t end California’s drought

Quote

I know, you’re tired of the drought. Tired of hearing about it, tired of trying to squeeze a little more savings out of your garden and indoor water use, tired of processing bad news about dying fisheries, drying wells, suffering farmers and dead trees.

I’m tired too: tired of studying and analyzing the impacts of this drought on California, after having done so for droughts between 1987 and 1992 and again between 2007-2009. Tired of trying to convince the public that we can’t let up in our fight to fix our water problems, and that the drought isn’t over because it rained and snowed a bit this winter.

Most of all, I’m tired of listening to people who argue we can continue to do things the way we’ve always done them.

That’s delusional thinking. A false hope. A con man’s promise.

http://www.sfchronicle.com/opinion/openforum/article/California-s-delusional-thinking-on-water-8406076.php?t=bc6f0cb5b7cefdcb88&cmpid=twitter-premium

[knocker]

 

[KeithinCali]

It has been a few years since I've had a forecast like this:

 

 

Edited January 19, 2017 by KeithinCali
attch img

[mb018538]

I'll bet!

I drove through California/Nevada last summer...and went along the Cajon Pass I15 the day after the road re-opened after the Blue Cut fire. Scorched (obviously), and brown everywhere. Tinder dry. 
This rain is unbelievable really, and completely unexpected. When I was in LA, people were literally praying for some rain. The northern portions of CA are now drought free, but more is needed in the south. This next bout will greatly help, and it appears by Thursday next week a large anticyclone will develop across the west and dry things out once more. Will we see any more storms through the winter and early spring before the inevitable bone dry summer?

[KeithinCali]

7 hours ago, mb018538 said:

I'll bet!

I drove through California/Nevada last summer...and went along the Cajon Pass I15 the day after the road re-opened after the Blue Cut fire. Scorched (obviously), and brown everywhere. Tinder dry. 
This rain is unbelievable really, and completely unexpected. When I was in LA, people were literally praying for some rain. The northern portions of CA are now drought free, but more is needed in the south. This next bout will greatly help, and it appears by Thursday next week a large anticyclone will develop across the west and dry things out once more. Will we see any more storms through the winter and early spring before the inevitable bone dry summer?

This is what we were hoping for the previous winter with the El Nino but it seems Texas and other areas got the wet weather.  There were certainly no great expectations this winter that's for sure.   Here my station has now recorded just shy of 13in since Oct. 1.  So even if it dries up after next week, it will still be a boon relative to the past 5 years.  The main boost has been the snowpack in the Sierras.  That's where the drought has really done the damage to the state's water supplies.  The grasses here have greened as you might expect, verdant hillsides from foothills to the coast.

Summers here are dry but June and July are typically mild for SoCal west of the mts.  Marine clouds and fog are typical due to a coastal eddy and the cold Pacific taking it's time to warm.  The real summer in Southern California is August through October which is typically when the offshore winds and fire season occurs.  If we had 4 season in this corner of the country, which we don't, so I'm speaking in relative terms: you would say we go from Spring to Fall to Summer thence to Winter.  The real concern is a wet winter causing the vegetation to flourish followed by a scorching Fall with severe Santa Anas.  More fuel is not a good thing.

[Frost HoIIow]

Certainly still very dry across southern California.

 

 

[KeithinCali]

6 hours ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Certainly still very dry across southern California.

 

 

 

Actually it's very wet at the moment.  Comfortably above normal in most locations.

That map just shows it's going to require plenty more to make up for several dry years in a row.  While the drought is still officially ongoing in SoCal that map has improved there as well.  The darkest shade titled "exceptional drought" has shrunk a fair bit this winter, now just a small blob around the Santa Barbara-Ventura-Thousand Oaks area.

[mb018538]

Even with all of the recent rainfall, it's not going to eradicate the deficit entirely in SoCal. You'd need 3 good, wet winter seasons in a row to really wipe it out. As others have said though, the main plus this year is just the metres and metres of snow piled up in the mountains. This will ensure a good supply of melangel delighter through the spring and summer, and although it's more than likely the dry weather will dominate through the summer as per the climatological norm for the area, it's nowhere near as desperate as recent years.

[4wd]

3 hours ago, mb018538 said:

 This will ensure a good supply of melangel delighter 

I think your word had a t w a t in it
Not sure about the three winter idea in that landscape, you aren't topping up peat bogs there - and acquifers probably can never recover unless extraction reduces dramatically.

They could do with major new storage because a lot of the current surplus is going straight in the sea which is mighty wasteful in a desert environment..

[KeithinCali]

5 hours ago, 4wd said:

I think your word had a t w a t in it
Not sure about the three winter idea in that landscape, you aren't topping up peat bogs there - and acquifers probably can never recover unless extraction reduces dramatically.

They could do with major new storage because a lot of the current surplus is going straight in the sea which is mighty wasteful in a desert environment..

 

lol, well outside SE California and the Mojave the inhabited areas west of the mts in Southern California are not technically a desert.  Even though for the last half decade it sure has seemed that way.

https://www.kcet.org/socal-focus/los-angeles-is-not-a-desert-stop-calling-it-one

 

Water storage isn't really the main issue and that wouldn't alleviate the demand-supply shortfall to a great degree.  Water infrastructure in this state is massive already.  It needs to be updated, modernized in some areas but new infrastructure is not really needed.

http://www.sacbee.com/opinion/op-ed/soapbox/article12778412.html

Most of California's water supply is consumed by agriculture or set aside for conservation/environmental purposes.  About 10% is consumed by residents and businesses.  There are no simple solutions.  It may be easy for an outsider to say why don't they do this or that and they'd be sorted.  But remember these are issues that have been tackled for a long time and by American standards California is a very progressive state.

 

[KeithinCali]

On 1/19/2017 at 10:07, Frost HoIIow said:

Certainly still very dry across southern California.

 

 

 

What a difference an extremely wet (and snowy) week makes.  D4 the dark maroon shade (exceptional drought) has now been completely eliminated.  A year ago much of Southern and Central CA were that shade.  The D3, or severe drought, in red still constituted a large area.  Now only a small bit of it remains the Santa Barbara-Ventura areas have been downgraded from Exceptional to Severe. 

[4wd]

 

[Love Snow]

Tens of thousands of people are being evacuated from near America's tallest dam, with officials saying a "hazardous situation is developing" and that part of the structure could fail.

 

Water has started flowing over the sides of an emergency spillway at the 230m-high (770ft) Lake Oroville Dam in northern California, about 80 miles north of Sacramento.

 

The spillway - used to alleviate pressure on the dam - is severely corroded and could fail imminently and unleash flood waters, according to Butte County Sheriff's Office.

[knocker]

Could be looking at more bad weather Saturday

 

[4wd]

There's a further smaller dam just downstream which will be affected by the various debris being eroded from the natural slope  where water is now pouring round the side.
I think it's unlikely the main dam will fail but they may soon reach a stage where the concrete spillway can't be used at all as the erosion works back towards the control gate which can't be jeopardised.
Then the only option will be to let the entire and increasing overflow pour over the natural slope - luckily this is quite well to one side and underlying geology seems quite rocky.

[Mokidugway]

Authorities have managed to reduce  water levels by 4 ft  as Herculean efforts are underway to try and save the relief slipway  all in all a desperate situation as the Pineapple Express continues to affect the region .

[knocker]

 

[knocker]

 

[knocker]

 

[Mokidugway]

Not Cali but an interesting video 

 

[knocker]

The difference this winter's rains have made!

https://www.conejovalleyguide.com/welcome/a-look-at-the-conejo-valley-before-and-after-the-recent-rainstorms

Edited March 11, 2017 by knocker

[Snipper]

Am I right in thinking it is a bit of a surface event and is likely to dry off pdq if no continued rainfall?

[knocker]

I've no idea what you mean by surface event but the rains and snow this winter have completely transformed the drought areas, irrespective of future rainfall this season.

https://www.drought.gov/drought/california

Edited March 11, 2017 by knocker