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Welcome to snow watch!

post-11361-0-41151100-1389400728_thumb.p

I did this thread last year and possibly other years too, and it's here that you can find snow forecasts for the next day or the week ahead, depending on updates here of course.

 

Here you can find a closer look at the snow (if any) associated with the cold spells, more detailed information and charts and possibly some alert maps too.

 

Are try and update the thread when I can, and hopefully others would post up here too.

 

Please note this is not the same as the cold spell discussion where in there we also chat about the cold set-up in general, the temps, the frosts..

 

This thread it is to focus on snowfall only. Thanks.

Edited by ElectricSnowStorm

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No snow likely until near end month, probably February.

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Not looking active for low levels, but hill snowfall over parts of the north next week quite possible. The snow risk for south increases through Jan/Feb every year, it's when we are more likely to get it. Saying this there is the risk of snow for Scotland at least the hills I would expect today:

Posted Image

That is very cold upper temperatures

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The 850s very much cold enough over Scotland

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and the dew points

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low pressure (not deep though as has been)

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NAE data indicating some snow over western and northern Scotland overnight tonight and Saturday.

Perhaps over Northern Ireland this morning some snow showers, heres the freezing level from GFS:

Posted Image

200-400m - possibly some lower level snow than this over Scotland.

Edited by ElectricSnowStorm

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I just want this mild and wet stuff to go away. I just doesn't feel like what a "winter" should be. I think that this winter is going to be one of those horrible snowless winters because not one snowflake has fell here in Manchester yet, that cold spell next week has already gone out of the window and February looks to be pretty mild too.

 

Really..? To be honest nobody has a clue what the 2nd half of Jan has to offer, never mind Feb which is traditionally the coldest winter month in the UK. We are not even half way through winter yet, plenty of time left yet and who knows what March will bring ? just look at last year for example, things can change very fast.

Edited by Polar Maritime

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Really..? To be honest nobody has a clue what the 2nd half of Jan has to offer, never mind Feb which is traditionally the coldest winter month in the UK. We are not even half way through winter yet, plenty of time left yet and who knows what March will bring ? just look at last year for example, things can change very fast.

Indeed, but I'm going with a gut feeling and that any cold and snow will be very brief if at all for the latter. This winter is of a similar vein to those nightmarish ones of the nineties and noughties. Edited by Sceptical Inquirer

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Indeed, but I'm going with a gut feeling and that any cold and snow will be very brief if at all for the latter. This winter is of a similar vein to those nightmarish ones of the nineties and noughties.

 

Could very well be.. We will see Posted Image

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Could very well be.. We will see Posted Image

You was suppose to cheer me up by saying the opposite.

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You was suppose to cheer me up by saying the opposite.

 

My point still stands S.I Posted Image

We can not make assumptions based on the weather we have had or having, as we have seen in years gone by things can change dramatically, not that we need it to, as we have plenty of winter left yet yet ! 

Edited by Polar Maritime

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My point still stands S.I Posted Image

We can not make assumptions based on the weather we have had or having, as we have seen in years gone by things can change dramatically, not that we need it to, as we have plenty of winter left yet yet !

I know but we very rarely get a cold spell in February after a mild December and January, granted it's the only the 11th of January but unless we see a change in the outlook soon then the chances of a prolonged cold spell will be receding fast. The next 7-10 days are crucial IMO on how much influence heights over to our NE have on the upstream pattern, if they remain robust then we still have a chance.

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I just want this mild and wet stuff to go away. I just doesn't feel like what a "winter" should be. I think that this winter is going to be one of those horrible snowless winters because not one snowflake has fell here in Manchester yet, that cold spell next week has already gone out of the window and February looks to be pretty mild too.

 

Feb shouldnt be mild, remember Atlantic train stops approx late Jan, Feb not guaranteed snow, but is guaranteed at least some cold and a weaker, if not weak Atlantic

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I know but we very rarely get a cold spell in February after a mild December and January, granted it's the only the 11th of January but unless we see a change in the outlook soon then the chances of a prolonged cold spell will be receding fast. The next 7-10 days are crucial IMO on how much influence heights over to our NE have on the upstream pattern, if they remain robust then we still have a chance.

 

The chances of cold increase markedly as we move through into the second half of January and more especially in February - traditionally the atlantic begins to weaken thanks to a weaker polar vortex and we are more likely to come under a northerly or easterly attack.

 

History has shown cold weather can occur in February after mild fairly snowless Decembers and January's. 2012 is a very recent example - admittedly the cold weather only lasted first 10 days.  February 2007 delivered some very heavy snowfalls to much of central England on the back of a snowless very mild 6 week spell. Admittedly the snowy spell was brief.

 

End of Feb 2006 and early March 2006 delivered the coldest and snowiest weather of the winter for Scotland - likewise 2004.

 

Feb 2005 produced a lengthy cold spell later on which lasted into March again on the back of a mild and mostly snowless December and January.

 

And we have seen plenty of examples of late season cold and snowfall in March and even April on the back of mild fairly snowless Decembers and January's - 2008 being a recent example.

 

I'd ask anyone to take a look at the synoptics of winter 2004/2005 a mild atlantic fest through Dec and Jan - but look what happened in February, came out of nowhere..

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Shouldn't this be the NO watch??

I actually saw some snow this morning about a minutes worth.

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Shouldn't this be the NO watch??

I actually saw some snow this morning about a minutes worth.

STOP WATCHING THOSE LAPLAND CAMS!!!!!!

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The chances of cold increase markedly as we move through into the second half of January and more especially in February - traditionally the atlantic begins to weaken thanks to a weaker polar vortex and we are more likely to come under a northerly or easterly attack.

 

History has shown cold weather can occur in February after mild fairly snowless Decembers and January's. 2012 is a very recent example - admittedly the cold weather only lasted first 10 days.  February 2007 delivered some very heavy snowfalls to much of central England on the back of a snowless very mild 6 week spell. Admittedly the snowy spell was brief.

 

End of Feb 2006 and early March 2006 delivered the coldest and snowiest weather of the winter for Scotland - likewise 2004.

 

Feb 2005 produced a lengthy cold spell later on which lasted into March again on the back of a mild and mostly snowless December and January.

 

And we have seen plenty of examples of late season cold and snowfall in March and even April on the back of mild fairly snowless Decembers and January's - 2008 being a recent example.

 

I'd ask anyone to take a look at the synoptics of winter 2004/2005 a mild atlantic fest through Dec and Jan - but look what happened in February, came out of nowhere..

Yes but not IMBY they didn't, 2012 only brought a freezing rain event although to be fair nearly all Scandi heights deliver next to  nothing for those out West. Like I said though if the block remains in situ for the next 7-10 days then we are still in with a chance, I'm still of the opinion that we'll end up just on the wrong side of said block throughout the rest of this winter, which tended to happen throughout the nineties and noughties.

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STOP WATCHING THOSE LAPLAND CAMS!!!!!!

Honest at Fox House even briefly covered the road....... Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

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Personally I think now is the most exciting/interesting part of winter, for cold and snow prospects. Next week hill snow for the north possible, and possibly disruptive snowfall, if features track across the south with rain then the cold further north could well intrude south, I'd expect the risk is there of lower level snow in north inclu central areas..

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The title of this thread reminds me of a forum on the BBC web site many years agoPosted Image

 

I remember being on there,, shame the BBC killed it, back in 2005 or so wasn't it. Remember Bill Farkin and his Grebes?

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I think feb to early march could deliver some decent cold/snow with the sea being at its coldest and this dross can't go on forever !!....

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Yes but not IMBY they didn't, 2012 only brought a freezing rain event although to be fair nearly all Scandi heights deliver next to  nothing for those out West. Like I said though if the block remains in situ for the next 7-10 days then we are still in with a chance, I'm still of the opinion that we'll end up just on the wrong side of said block throughout the rest of this winter, which tended to happen throughout the nineties and noughties.

 

 

Mmm we don't need scandi blocks to deliver snow in winter. Northerlies and northwesterlies can deliver the goods as well as cyclonic conditions and lows taking a more southerly course. Not sure why you are hanging so much on the scandi block. We've seen northerlies in April deliver the goods.

 

Cold spells can also occur with high pressure overhead. A scandi block is not the be all and end all.

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Mmm we don't need scandi blocks to deliver snow in winter. Northerlies and northwesterlies can deliver the goods as well as cyclonic conditions and lows taking a more southerly course. Not sure why you are hanging so much on the scandi block. We've seen northerlies in April deliver the goods.

 

Cold spells can also occur with high pressure overhead. A scandi block is not the be all and end all.

Indeed, but unless we see heights becoming established over Greenland then any such Northerly/North Westerly  would be of the toppler variety. As for cold in March and April well as last year showed we can still see cold and snow but we are then in Spring. This winter is looking like a dogs dinner tbh with no sign anytime soon of a cold spell developing, and I stand by my comments of us seeing nothing but the odd day here and there of cold.

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Snow warnings out from the met office

 

Issued at: 1118 on Sun 12 Jan 2014

Valid from: 1800 on Sun 12 Jan 2014

Valid to: 0300 on Mon 13 Jan 2014

 

A band of rain will move northeastwards across Scotland on Sunday evening into the early hours of Monday and is expected to turn to snow as it moves across the southern and central Highlands. Several centimetres of snow may accumulate on roads above about 250 metres within the warning area and locally 5 to 10 cm on some of the very highest routes. The rain may also be briefly preceded by some sleet or wet snow to lower levels across the Central Belt too, perhaps giving some slushy deposits on higher routes there. The public should be aware of possible disruption to travel.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

A frontal system will move northeastwards across Scotland on Sunday evening into the early hours of Monday. As the associated band of precipitation encounters cold air across Scotland, snow is likely, possibly giving some accumulations of snow over the higher parts of the Central Belt and more generally across the Grampians. The snow will clear away northwards in the early hours of Monday to be followed by icy stretches on untreated surfaces (see separate yellow warning for ice).

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1389484800&regionName=uk

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Watching an area of wintry ppn affecting from Liverpool down to Birmingham moving east now.

EURO4 indicates the snow risk for areas on the northern part of this ppn band (Leeds and a bit north of here) (also some snow for Scotland)

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NAE shows some small zones within this ppn band as snow:

Posted Image

Can show you an image of earlier radar (about 1hr ago) have indicated on the map the area of wintry precipitation(hill snow moslty)

post-11361-0-58437100-1389657977_thumb.j

 

Also to note is the snow shown on the charts for Scotland for Tuesday(today)

 

Met office have issued warnings for Ice and also the snow for Scotland today:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1389657600

(was issued early Mon)

Edited by ElectricSnowStorm

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Can confirm snow here in northern outskirts of Shrewsbury. Briefly settled on grass, cars and bins but passed quite quickly and turned back to sleet now.

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