Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards

[Tamara]

Tbh, the GFS op doesn't surprise me at all! the ensembles, have not given a nod towards any cold signal. there are other factors at play too, the ec32. It all adds up, and of course some can go off the rails when they see an op such as todays, but they are merely stating their frustration. Of course, variations, tweaks will affect the models somewhat this week, but the favoured route back to some form of zonality has been present for days now.

I would like to think that most of the honest opinions expressed on here by various members are the product of a lot of thought and genuine interest as to how things may unfold and bias is suspended on that basis.

 

 My own humble opinion has been that this winter was always end loaded for any possibilities of cold weather (if such a term exists! )  It is clear how stratospheric events have already changed the pattern since the flat zonal one of much of December and the first week of January. It is simply that they haven't (yet) done enough and we have not seen anything translated in any way to the surface pattern in this part of the NH -for all the reasons given for some time now.

 

Further changes are predicted - frustration is understandable to a degree but I guess when attempts are made to put that into perspective with explanations why it won't snow straightaway then the hope is that this mitigates that frustration. Its the weather - we can't control it, but we can try to understand to our varying abilities what drives the patterns

[MR EXTREMES]

Oh i reckon Frosty can find one, go on frosty dig one out mate 

 

here's my effort

 

but I must admit this chart is stunning if only this was cross model.

[phil nw.]

Let's keep posts polite and on topic please folks.

Some have been removed for sniping and general unrelated comments.

 

People will have differing views and these should be respected especially if supported by some data.

Remember the moaning/ramp thread for more general chat.

 

Thanks all.

[karlos1983]

so can we get cross model agreement at +72 with the UKMO and GFS in pretty good agreement at that time frame

 

GFS

UKMO

 

At least if the ECM agrees, we can start to look forward for the next frames and interest that might follow

[Summer Sun]

GFS 12z looks to be a mild outlier at times tonight on the London ensemble

 

[bluearmy]

Gefs have plenty of interest (thats especially for crewe).

Cant see them getting the arctic profile right though

[KyleHenry]

For all those that see the AH on the GFS 12z and the ECM 6z and especially on the UKMO 12z at 120 hours pushing into the UK and feel despair and see no way out Try to see why this is happening. Say you were to change from looking at the West Europe model maps and look at the Northern Hemisphere model maps on Meteociel. Then say you looked at the Alaskan US border region and observed the WAA pushing warm Pacific air all the way up to the edge of the Arctic Circle. Common sense says the Canadian Vortex goes Eastwards and pushes the Scandi HP east also allowing the Azores High into the British Isles , as there's space to move into. What happens when the warm air /WAA dissipates and goes South again. A person might say the Canadian Vortex would move Westwards again allowing the Scandi back in. Azores to track westwards. After that it's anyone's guess. Questions of can the Azores High push up to Greenland. Will the Arctic High sink or will Scandi High push West. No malice meant in my post. I see the Alaskan WAA as the cornerstone of everything happening in conjunction with the slow and continuous warming of Stratosphere since late December 2013. What the SSW will do I can't say. Send everyone bonkers most likely.

Disclaimer: if above is wrong then my 45 IQ rating is justified lol

[Tom Jarvis]

Allready a shift south on the ECM and that is at t48h

[karlos1983]

so can we get cross model agreement at +72 with the UKMO and GFS in pretty good agreement at that time frame

 

GFS

UKMO

 

At least if the ECM agrees, we can start to look forward for the next frames and interest that might follow

we have agreement from the ECM, right now onto the next

 

[J10]

GFS 12z looks to be a mild outlier at times tonight on the London ensemble

 

 

Can I order the purple one please,

 

Is it the ensembles member Frosty is showing above.

[Dancerwithwings]

GFS 12z looks to be a mild outlier at times tonight on the London ensemble

 

 

Plenty of agreement there then i see This was my point earlier..... and this says it all, Even the members are struggling with anything past 96h.

[supernova]

 

ok I take a three day net weather ban if feb is cold and thats even if we see two weeks of something cold I bet bottom dollar a net weather ban nothing favours the uk getting cold arctic heights are all but gone and the projected warming in the strat has not even happened and even if it does with lag time it will be march.

 

It's a strong bet and a double whammy if you're wrong ER 'cos not only would it be cold in Feb (if you're wrong) but nor would you be able to take part in the seismic pleasure of being on here to participate in its unfolding! All us coldies share your frustration and, hey, it's possible we're about to have a snowless winter but it's pretty unlikely and I'd be frankly amazed if this zonal toss continues much into the new month based on everything before us. I'll have you a virtual quid ECM throws us some interest, none of the models have got this covered and even if they did I doubt we'd be able to verify until it was practically on top of us. If this Scandi high does eventually chuck in the towel without getting hitched, or just disappears without a whimper, it'd be out of character with the procession of notable weather we've seen over recent years across all seasons and it does just make you wonder whether it's feasible we could endure such an average winter - unless of course it's mild extremes you're looking to record! In the meantime a strengthening Arctic high UKMO 144hrs - all is not totally lost...

 

 

 

[A.J]

GFS 12z looks to be a mild outlier at times tonight on the London ensemble

 

I think this perfectly illustrates how this GFS output is in a state of flux with absolutely nothing to suggest that the zonal express train (as some will call it) will be in full effect.....Look at the spread even at just T132 for the T850's for London, an 18 degree spread!.....so anything from a zonal pattern to an extremely cold pattern....All to play for in my book, and I'm certainly going to follow the models with interest over the next few days.....IMO this ensemble set perfectly illustrate what Steve Murr was mentioning this morning I believe about looking 5 to 6 days ahead before making judgement 

Edited January 19, 2014 by ajpoolshark

[Long haul to mild]

ECM 120 showing a rather large nose of HP up from the Azores, the cold uppers restricted to the East of England.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011912/ECM1-120.GIF?19-0

[Captain Shortwave]

ECM at day 5

 

Well in an unprecedented turn of events, the GFS op has the most robust high to the north east at day 5.

I suddenly feel dirty 

Edited January 19, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[JK1]

Well in an unprecedented turn of events, the GFS op has the most robust high to the north east at day 5.

I suddenly feel dirty 

that's the ECM

[Summer Sun]

Can't see much of a snow event from this tbh on Friday night into Saturday the 850's looks too high

 

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm961.html

So close yet so far...

Finding it very difficult to see a route away from a PV dominated Atlantic regime moving forward....the profile to the North East looks good,but the (dominant)profile to the North west looks as bad as it has since the beginning of December.

[Captain Shortwave]

that's the ECM

I know, ah the joys of being late to the party. It was a sweeping overall statement of the GFS/GEM/UKMO/ECM output.

Well the ECM, I going to admit is pretty poor at day 6.

Edited January 19, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Summer Sun]

Becoming more unsettled and cooler at t144

 

[nick sussex]

I know, ah the joys of being late to the party. It was a sweeping overall statement of the GFS/GEM/UKMO/ECM output.

Well the ECM, I going to admit is hideous at day 6

Better than the GFS 12hrs run, so we should be thankful for small  mercies, this will develop differently from the GFS because the ECM  hasn't broken down  the Pacific Ridge, the ECM and UKMO are similar over the USA, the GFS given NCEP comments re that ridge won't verify.

Edited January 19, 2014 by nick sussex

[Stuie]

As Friday has been highlighted by Ian F for a possible frontal snow issue, the ECM narrows the regions to the South East. Fine by me but some correction West required for most of the country. The chart below, yes I believe cold enough for the SE, just.

[karlos1983]

Nice ridging at 168, not sure if this will end well tho

[Bobby]

GEM 12z - much like the other runs today, charts speak for themselves

 

 

 

[tight isobar]

I don't honestly presume, anything +48/72 can be taking with an seriousness at present. Wild swings from run to run, and cross model disagree. Again its a northen hemispherical gradients change in the offing, and with the polar vortex flex of muscle at present its a critical prognosis via the mods. But I will say there's something drastic afoot. Its just equalities regards just what atm.