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Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards


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Despite the excitement regarding medium range modelling the short term outlook is not one which indicates anything notable, modelling to the 24th is in unanimity that the outlook is relatively zonal. 

 

Five of nine winter periods have now passed.

 

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Improvement on GFS at 156. Colder air from the NW

 

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They truly are experiencing a brutal winter in the CONUS that's -28 850's skirting the US great lakes area imagine the lake effect snow off that. Can anyone remind me what the 85's were for jan 87 for us I imagine about -16/18 at best. -28 is usually reserved for the high arctic. I just find it fascinating that they can achieve that being such a southerly land mass compared to us. ( I know we are on the edge of an ocean btw)

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and here we go again with another installment of the ecmf drama. At the moment models r all over the place that usialy means a patern change is a foot. What that would be no1 can say for sure. The ecmf has thrown out another winter wanderland chart at us. Though the arctic high could become 1 of the big players everything else has to fall into place first. Lets c what the ecmf chirns out tomorrow. Until we get cross model agreement and the met on bord it's best we keep our feet firmely on the ground.

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They truly are experiencing a brutal winter in the CONUS that's -28 850's skirting the US great lakes area imagine the lake effect snow off that. Can anyone remind me what the 85's were for jan 87 for us I imagine about -16/18 at best. -28 is usually reserved for the high arctic. I just find it fascinating that they can achieve that being such a southerly land mass compared to us. ( I know we are on the edge of an ocean btw)

 

I think the SE had short-lived -18 uppers in 1987 if I recall correctly.  You're right, the US are having an epic time of it at the moment

 

FI looking stacked full of potential tonight.  This at 240.

 

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Again, the volatility in the charts currently show big changes are afoot!

Edited by Ice Day
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I think JH has a fair point, and after all he did highlight the word POTENTIAL with big letters, which is very much what it is...

 

CFS continues to indicate some efforts towards a pattern change in February but very much biting the nails with it..

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I think the SE had short-lived -18 uppers in 1987 if I recall correctly.  You're right, the US are having an epic time of it at the moment

 

FI looking stacked full of potential tonight.  This at 240.

 

Again, the volatility in the charts currently show big changes are afoot!

 

Yes you are about right, coldest uppers was probably around Kent. -18 or -19

 

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I think a "pattern change" to slightly more wintry conditions looks likely. It could just be a few northerly topplers and some periods of cool zonality though. We are still a fair way off a sustained cold and snowy pattern. The strat warning refuses to have an impact on the PV over Greenland. Whilst pressure remains so low to our north and north west we are not going to see anything sustained in afraid

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GFS 18z very zonal really

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A very brief cold shot in FI

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Before back to a unsettled and then mild and with a very strong SW flow at the end welcomes in February

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Not good for cold fans

Edited by Purga
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I think a "pattern change" to slightly more wintry conditions looks likely. It could just be a few northerly topplers and some periods of cool zonality though. We are still a fair way off a sustained cold and snowy pattern. The strat warning refuses to have an impact on the PV over Greenland. Whilst pressure remains so low to our north and north west we are not going to see anything sustained in afraid

 

Well I think the Strat effect would need to be given a bit off time to filter down?  n any case the Strat warming is still really only showing up at the 10 day mark at 10hpa, would like to get it in the reliable

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Overall the models look in good agreement for the overall NH pattern, Arctic high, high pressure to the east , troughing near the UK which will hit a brick wall and run out of steam as it hits mainland Europe.

 

The uncertainty upstream re amplification is the key issue, there is one difference here though between the current yes no easterly of recent weeks and that's the Arctic high will act as a reinforcements to high pressure to the east, its just now a case of the final piece of the puzzle.

 

I think if the Azores high can retrogress and buy enough time then even with another bomb thrown east by the PV that we should be able to repel that attack, and the energy will head se rather than east.

 

So that really is the decider here,will this MJO signal actually deliver?

 

Earlier theres still enough margin for error in the set up that shortwaves breaking se may well still deliver something wintry on their eastern flank.

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Purga, while i agree nothing sustained cold shows in the 18z, look at the NH view at +240....... it screams potential

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Really don't understand some of the downbeat posts, from what is being potentially shown, but just being dismissed completely.

Not dismissing potential Karlos I'm just commenting on what the 18z model shows. It may very well not turn out like that at all especially the FI charts, in fact I hope it doesn't

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GFS 18z very zonal really

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A very brief cold shot in FI

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Before back to a unsettled and then mild and with a very strong SW flow at the end welcomes in February

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Not good for cold fans

 

 

As so often is the case with GFS - it defaults to the full on zonal westerly blast way beyond the realms of reliable timeframe - it does this all through the year, or on occasion offers a baffling picture, often swinging wildly from its output at the 240 hr timeframe - blasting away major euro high blocks in the summer and azores blocks when all the signals are against such affair..

 

The GFS 18z is one model prone to huge margin of error and consequently don't get hung up on it.

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Hi steve, I have every reason to believe we are on the cusp of raging atlantic behaviour again. However, dependant on this artic high could have spectacular conciquences. Would'nt it be cool to have an 920 hpa low undercut into southern biscay then on into euro land!!!!

Excuse my spelling... Damn smart phone.

I think John you have turned into a bit of a Grinch this year.  I think the only victim of models seems to be you. I haven't seen anyone hype it out of proportion, just some analysis on whats put infront of us.

 

Again, the only one taking it out of context is you.

 

FWIW, the ECM has been modelling the arctic high since the 00z 16 / 01

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=1&mois=1&heure=0&jour=16&annee=2014

 

& its been gaining momentum since + traversing the ECM timelines across each daily as the models have run, to be consistent in the output @ 144 / 168 tonight.

 

This isn't just your run of the mill amplified atlantic ridge, its something more than that, a total reversal of the zonal wind @ 60N starting over the pacific & reversing around to Northern Europe by day 10.

 

The hurdles are clear in everyones mind that the UK is always the end of the line, bit at least allow people the fun of speculation, even if it doesn't arrive.

 

I just don't see the point of posting - It wont happen, its unlikely to happen, It cant happen- Yeah, thanks for that- we know that. We have known that for years.

 

Who cares.

 

S

 

Wheres the facepalm smiley. Posted Image

 

The short term atlantic forecast shows no eastward movement of the low for the next 5 days.

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Not dismissing potential Karlos I'm just commenting on what the 18z model shows. It may very well not turn out like that at all especially the FI charts, in fact I hope it doesn't

 

Fair enough Purga, at least you see potential,I was beginning to think I was looking at a different set of models Posted Image

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They truly are experiencing a brutal winter in the CONUS that's -28 850's skirting the US great lakes area imagine the lake effect snow off that. Can anyone remind me what the 85's were for jan 87 for us I imagine about -16/18 at best. -28 is usually reserved for the high arctic. I just find it fascinating that they can achieve that being such a southerly land mass compared to us. ( I know we are on the edge of an ocean btw)

Im not sure there is enough open water left on the great lakes to produce any convection.
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GFS Ens not really following the ECM tonight, hopefully tomorrow morning everything is though. Not feeling to confident on cold after the pub run!!! Only one run though.

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