Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards

[bryan629]

piers corbyn sounds a little ectstatic about something...i wonder what he knows..

 

Piers says (18Jan) "This is the most important forecast for Britain & Ireland since the famous Dec 2010"

[SMU]

That was me Steve..

 

Its ok Mate- its not a dig.  The 500 anomalies are the key not where the low pressures are- especially when referring to day 8 & 9.

 

ECM anomalies are clear tonight.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011812/ECH101-240.GIF?18-0

 

One of the best charts you can get on the H5 anomalies...

 

Lets hope its like that in 6 days time.

 

S

[Vertical Limit]

Also some people are confusing the H5 anomalies with the surface feature.

 

The person that posted the 5 day ECM for today & from 5 days ago shows the ECM has nailed the whole pattern, the issue being if your living in the UK then the models error at day 5 can mean a swing of 10 maybe even 15 degrees for us.

 

However it nailed the height anomalies in the right place.

 

If you look at 168/192 if its modelling those height anomalies correctly again then the odds are FAVOURING a cold NW Europe as opposed to an atlantic driven pattern due to the teleconnections that support the anomalies.

 

Our best chance of cold this season & certainly better than the beat up coke can scandi high from this past few days.

 

S

 

Just to show whos boss look at the low disappear in 48 hours

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011812/ECM1-192.GIF?18-0 955 LOW

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011812/ECM1-216.GIF?18-0 990 LOW

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011812/ECM1-240.GIF?18-0 1010 LOW over the continent.

This almost sounds like a ramp Steve. I enjoy reading your posts a lot. I am a newbie but can see there is a NH hemisphere pattern change developing and tonight's ECM looks very bullish. The Artic high currently modelled and the MJO forecasts are obviously a good thing but are you confident of seeing a proper UK cold spell soon?

[SMU]

So the big idea is that, after T240, the -24/-28C uppers somehow get swept straight through Scandi towards the UK, whilst any depressions coming out of Canada go underneath a strengthening High around Iceland, turning to hideous amounts of snow as they hit the super-cold air over the UK? Easy peasy? 

 

 

What odds would you give me, 10-1?

 

A bit nearer to reality ... the Scandi High may not have been able to impose itself fully on us yet .. but a close look at ECM T96 - T168 shows that it is actually moving towards us ... it's still not dead in the water even before the possible Arctic High event.

 

that's the 5% chance

 

Realistically anything like that would be good - remember we do write these charts off- however

 

2010 verified.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?jour=18&mois=11&annee=2010&heure=12&archive=1&mode=1&ech=72&map=1

[Cloud 10]

The forecast Arctic height rises go from the surface right up to 100mb so certainly a force to be

reckoned with!

 

 

 

Polar vortex obviously split to the same level.

 

[Frosty.]

Not unless GP has taken up cross dressing...

I'm looking for cross model agreement on our first cold spell, don't think there will be too long to wait 

 

The virtual stella artois are on me if the snow comes soon

Edited January 18, 2014 by Frosty.

[Purga]

A  sleety mix for some from the ECM at 216 / 240 but the upper temps are not that great and the wind direction is from the NW to start and there is no embedded cold air.

Hopefully with a better NH pressure profile things may improve later but it's a long way off.

[UV-RAY]

Right we have lots of "potential" but all of this is way out in FI, so whilst it's fine discussing this potential the chances of such charts actually looking like that cometh the hour are next to zero. 

 

I agree that a pattern change seems likely towards the months end but what that pattern change is, is far from settled. Sorry to be so negative but this winter has been taxing to say the least so until we get cross model consensus at around +120 I'll remain sceptical.

[Buzz]

I give up, not just this post, one saying 'stella chart getting close, another mild SW'ly showing.

Is it any wonder that new folk and those not used to deciphering just what any model is ACTUALLY showing get confused.

 

Please new folk, if you have some understanding of what GFS is showing go to the charts and look for yourself, yes I know it is just one part of the output and the ensembles may show something different. If you are still unsure then ask on the forum or if you want a totally unbiased view on any model then please pm me rather than cluttering up this thread.

 

Well said. Far too many posts that basically get excited (or depressed) over charts showing forecast conditions that are over away and highly unlilely to come to fruition. We need more analytical posts like yours John, Chino's, Snowking's and the like, not excitement (or misery) regarding charts that are too far off to matter.

[nick sussex]

A positive evening overall for coldies with the models firming up on the Arctic high, still some uncertainties however with the amplitude of the pattern upstream,at least with the MJO on the move this is a good background signal to have.

 

If the high can extend sufficiently south and force some energy se then theres finally a good chance for some proper winter weather.

 

Unfortunately I sliced the top of my thumb off with one of those stupid mandolins which means I'm having to type left handed and so you'll all be relieved to know that my posts will be short for a few days!

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

A  sleety mix for some from the ECM at 216 / 240 but the upper temps are not that great and the wind direction is from the NW to start and there is no embedded cold air.

Hopefully with a better NH pressure profile things may improve later but it's a long way off.

Disagree,those charts will not be a sleety mix purga.

[SMU]

A pity it's 9 days away and unlikely to happen though .......

 

What is the actual point of posting replies like this.

 

Its unlikely to happen exactly like that, but this is why you remove the surface features & look at the heights.

 

 

I think people are treating this development like a bulk standard Northerly toppler.

 

Look at this chart- its near identical to the ECM chart with the arctic high

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1984/archivesnh-1984-12-29-0-0.png

 

& 2 days later

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1984/archivesnh-1984-12-31-0-0.png

 

& 2 more days

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1985/archivesnh-1985-1-2-0-0.png

 

+ 2

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1985/archivesnh-1985-1-4-12-0.png

 

 

As long as the Arctic high gets SOME link up with the atlantic it WILL get cold.

 

S

[Frosty.]

Well said. Far too many posts that basically get excited (or depressed) over charts showing forecast conditions that are over away and highly unlilely to come to fruition. We need more analytical posts like yours John, Chino's, Snowking's and the like, not excitement (or misery) regarding charts that are too far off to matter.

this forum will be buzzin soon I bet

[Purga]

Disagree,those charts will not be a sleety mix purga.

read my post "for some" Cecil old mate.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Best thing to do at the moment is simply sit on the fence. Its a case of 'Now you see it', 'Now you don't.' 

A knife edge situation I think could well take place towards the end of the month, but I just think to sum it up, that we are just not making the cut this year with the attempted push of cold out of the continent. I might be wrong, but thats the way it looks to be squaring up so far. By no means am I writing it off though, anything could happen within this week and towards the end of Jan and of course throughout February. 

[Summer Sun]

A  sleety mix for some from the ECM at 216 / 240 but the upper temps are not that great and the wind direction is from the NW to start and there is no embedded cold air.

Hopefully with a better NH pressure profile things may improve later but it's a long way off.

 

The 850's -5 or lower UK wide best viewed on meteociel

 

[SMU]

This almost sounds like a ramp Steve. I enjoy reading your posts a lot. I am a newbie but can see there is a NH hemisphere pattern change developing and tonight's ECM looks very bullish. The Artic high currently modelled and the MJO forecasts are obviously a good thing but are you confident of seeing a proper UK cold spell soon?

 

If this chart is still in the mix

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011812/ECH1-192.GIF?18-0

 

in 4 days time- that's the 192 into the 96 chart then its game on. All im referring to is the Deep arctic high & bowling ball low then its game on.

 

S

[Team Jo]

No sniping please folks. It's Saturday night and I don't really want to be exercising my 'delete' finger.

The PM system is very useful if you want a specific person to answer a specific question...

[Geordiesnow]

I'm not denying the fact that high up in the Arctic the models are hinting at the PV being hit for 6 but the way it goes on here you think that it will lead up to some significant colder weather but we know it does not always work out like that. 

 

My post is on about the medium term that it looks like we may see a brief milder SW'ly flow from an Azores high, both the GFS and ECM show this and we been talking about cold weather for a while now yet it seems whilst conditions are reletively average(could even be slightly below at the start of next week) the trend does seem to be we may see a tropical maritime airmass for the end of the week and quite a few runs hint at this. Whatever happens after that is anyones guess. 

 

Also the PV breaking up in the Arctic is not a guarantee but looks a strong possibility, how this affects our weather remains to be seen.

[bryan629]

this forum will be buzzin soon I bet

defo frosty ..specially if heights link up like the ecm is showing and cut off the pv over canada/ usa... im praying ecm is correct and gfs plays catch up.. its about time you had some epic charts to post...looking forward to them

[legritter]

Isee very good signs in the models today .But its going to require patience and hopefully something as the end game .if its out there it will be a slow process but we need some maturity in any cold source ,lets wait gang ,discuss and take each chart and enjoy and crack open some STellas . 

[KB123]

cold enough again for snow anywhere

 

Who are you and what have you done with Summer Sun?

[pdiddy]

I'm not denying the fact that high up in the Arctic the models are hinting at the PV being hit for 6 but the way it goes on here you think that it will lead up to some significant colder weather but we know it does not always work out like that. 

 

My post is on about the medium term that it looks like we may see a brief milder SW'ly flow from an Azores high, both the GFS and ECM show this and we been talking about cold weather for a while now yet it seems whilst conditions are reletively average(could even be slightly below at the start of next week) the trend does seem to be we may see a tropical maritime airmass for the end of the week and quite a few runs hint at this. Whatever happens after that is anyones guess. 

 

Also the PV breaking up in the Arctic is not a guarantee but looks a strong possibility, how this affects our weather remains to be seen.

You're right, the GFS 12z run does show a brief Swly flow on Tues 21st and Fri 24th... with 2m temps of 4C... To your point about what happens after, it does seem that nearly all solutions point to a NW flow bringing much colder uppers.  A number of respected posters are making these observations that conditions have improved in the medium term to suggest colder conditions are now more likely.

[Tamara]

I'm not denying the fact that high up in the Arctic the models are hinting at the PV being hit for 6 but the way it goes on here you think that it will lead up to some significant colder weather but we know it does not always work out like that. 

 

My post is on about the medium term that it looks like we may see a brief milder SW'ly flow from an Azores high, both the GFS and ECM show this and we been talking about cold weather for a while now yet it seems whilst conditions are reletively average(could even be slightly below at the start of next week) the trend does seem to be we may see a tropical maritime airmass for the end of the week and quite a few runs hint at this. Whatever happens after that is anyones guess. 

 

Also the PV breaking up in the Arctic is not a guarantee but looks a strong possibility, how this affects our weather remains to be seen.

Yes you are totally correct in saying that the change in pattern does not inevitably lead to a UK cold spell, and I agree a burst of westerlies ahead of the changes programmed over the arctic has been well advertised (certainly for a little while now in my own posts just f.e) In terms of this evenings posts it was more about clearing up confusion arising over the conflicting aspect of pressure rising over the pole in tandem with a strengthening PV. Clearly the opposite has to apply

[bryan629]

Not impressed by tonights charts at all.

can you tell me us allwhy you are not impressed with these charts at all... they have potential written all over them

 

differences yes ... potential to boom....battleground Britain synoptics with cold air either from the east or north

 

Edited January 18, 2014 by bryan629