Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards

[492]

The 12Z GFS charts for T+6 and T+384 are almost the same...remarkable !.

[IDO]

GFS 12z maintaining the theme of the PV being sent packing. About T180 a part is sent towards the UK against the Scandi block:

 

 

By T228 this has moved SE into central S.europe, where the trough sets up: 

 

The Atlantic ridge builds but as with other runs the pattern is just too far east for the UK to get a cold spell.

 

T300 and the trough is on mainland Europe: 

 

The Atlantic ridge then pumps up the Arctic high before further waves of PV energy is forced SE towards the UK, late FI:

 

 

All looks quite feasible, and for us it's much like the Met update, wintriness interspersed by cool drier interludes. The GEM late in FI is flatter than the GFS with a toning down of the Atlantic Ridge: 

 

 

Synoptically the NH is good but the lack of FI snowy charts is a worry. Early days but disappointing all the same.

[Summer Sun]

Above average temperatures becoming restricted to the far west and south west on the 12z 8 day anomaly

 

[cooling climate]

I think over the coming days we are going to see mouth watering charts

with the east definitely the direction to be looking towards the end of

the month onwards.

Looking forward to the ECM model picking up the very strong warming that

the GFS is showing which should be in the next day or two.

Edited January 18, 2014 by cooling climate

[bluearmy]

 

 

Synoptically the NH is good but the lack of FI snowy charts is a worry. Early days but disappointing all the same.

 

low res gfs charts are not worth close inspection but did you look through the run. its a snowmaker with the atlantic disrupting against a frigid block.

[Paul]

Just as a reminder, attacking other members is very much against the guidelines and spirit of the community so unless people are keen on not posting in here please stay clear of that type of thing - if you believe a post is an issue please just report it.

 

Also, this being the model discussion thread, please can we stick to the model output - there are threads for met office discussion, tv forecasts and the like, and whilst passing mention in a post that is mainly about the models is ok, posts which have little to no model discussion in them and are solely about something else don't fit in here and need posting elsewhere. 

 

Thanks.

[MR EXTREMES]

if im honest im rather disappointed but the models across the board tonight totally underwhelming gfs does not have arctic heights not even a north pacific ridge.

gem looks a little better only slightly lets hope the ecm continues with this mornings better run.

 

not really a huge amount to shout about until I see a no go with the arctic ridge then Im again on the fence crazy runs.

[bluearmy]

Looking forward to the ECM model picking up the very strong warming thatthe GFS is showing which should be in the next day or two.

 

the ecm extended ens should already be doing that cc.  although, the strongest warming is still in a couple of weeks so the trop modelling will not yet show any response. what we are seeing is the ability of the trop lw pattern to amplify somewhere other than the pacific side as the zonal winds in the strat are falling back due to the continued warmings we have been seeing. 

 

not keen on gem at day 6. it has the upstream usa high in a poor place for us to see the azores retrograde to it once the pattern amplifies.

Edited January 18, 2014 by bluearmy

[Ali1977]

Let's hope the ECM follows this mornings run, smashing the PV up, and doing it before day 10. Maybe it's time the ECM led the way, as it's been pretty poor long term lately.

[johnholmes]

 

 

Synoptically the NH is good but the lack of FI snowy charts is a worry. Early days but disappointing all the same.

It really is a waste of time looking at surface charts at 228h and even more so to comment on snow or no snow that far out. 28h yes I'de agree take a close look.

how realistic are the surface charts you show compared to the upper air pattern at no more than 240h? Better still how well do they relate at 144h.

Emjoy the roller coaster but folk looking at events so far ahead are not likely to see the charts validate, be it for a mild or cold outlook, it is quite impossible.

not a dig at you by the way, I am simply using your post to illustrate how to realistic.

[IDO]

low res gfs charts are not worth close inspection but did you look through the run. its a snowmaker with the atlantic disrupting against a frigid block.

 

 

No I never look for snow in FI, just looking at the synoptics. Atlantic ridge unsustainable and pushing the trough east. The lull in PV potency therefore not as wintry as it could be. Anyway the inevitable push east as we get in the hi-res can make or break those snow charts on the 12z (the control run is a case in point).

It really is a waste of time looking at surface charts at 228h and even more so to comment on snow or no snow that far out. 28h yes I'de agree take a close look.

how realistic are the surface charts you show compared to the upper air pattern at no more than 240h? Better still how well do they relate at 144h.

Emjoy the roller coaster but folk looking at events so far ahead are not likely to see the charts validate, be it for a mild or cold outlook, it is quite impossible.

not a dig at you by the way, I am simply using your post to illustrate how to realistic.

 

No arguments from me there, just using the charts to show the pattern as per the 12z. Probably all change by this time tomorrow, though the Atlantic ridge is a common GFS theme of late.

Edited January 18, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[IDO]

Both GFS Control & Op bring a storm to the UK around D8:

 

 

 

Ties in with the mean at the same time: 

 

Some violent ensemble members: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=6&ech=204

 

One to watch.

 

 

[Iceni]

Just trying to catch up after yesterday.... reading about everyone else's flooding, then found I had a flood of my own and of my own making.... I was so engrossed in one of Tamara's sublime comments, I let the bath overflow and it tripped out the lights downstairs.

 

Not your fault Tamara, just to say please keep posting come hell or (in my case) high water. You write so lucidly about complex chaotic systems and make them understandable. Take a bow! You're really appreciated.

[Stuie]

Before tonight`s ECM kicks off I saved Monday`s prediction for today. Having looked at the comparison, damn fine effort and should put some faith back into any doubters.

Yes there is a 10 difference but 120 hrs ago the ECM for today:

and today @ 13:00

 

So what does this mean? To me FI is beyond T120 for the ECM.

[Eskimo]

Both GFS Control & Op bring a storm to the UK around D8:

 

gens-0-1-204.png  gfs-0-204.png

 

Ties in with the mean at the same time: gensnh-21-1-204.png

 

Some violent ensemble members: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=6&ech=204

 

One to watch.

If the flow comes from the North, some places would presumably see blizzard conditions. 

[Tom Jarvis]

Well big improvement on ECM at t48 with the low heights further south and west

Edited January 18, 2014 by Tom Jarvis

[Summer Sun]

A nasty looking storm showing up on GFS again tonight

 

 

GEM keeps the worst of it away from the UK

 

Edited January 18, 2014 by Summer Sun

[chris55]

Hard to tell whether we could see some snow from the approaching front on tonights ECM. We have some cold settled air over us as the trough comes in and disrupts, light winds, a slight continental feed and the 0c isotherm skirts to the south west.

 

Maybe something to keep an eye on,

 

[Summer Sun]

High pressure starting to build at t144 on ECM less cold air making its way into Ireland

 

 

Cooler air pushing back in at t168

 

Edited January 18, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Vertical Limit]

High pressure starting to build at t144 on ECM less cold air making its way into Ireland

 

Just for the sake of variety SS, could you please discuss something other than High pressure and European temperature averages. Perhaps a more lateral view of what the models are showing!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just for the sake of variety SS, could you please discuss something other than High pressure and European temperature averages. Perhaps a more lateral view of what the models are showing!

 

he normally posts charts that show storms, wind and rain! one earlier in this thread

[Summer Sun]

-6 850's pushing into Scotland at t192 with a deep low over Iceland, cold enough for some snow in Scotland even at lower levels

 

Edited January 18, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Geordiesnow]

Still no signs of any significant cold and if anything, it looks we are more likely too see a mild SW'ly(as the 18Z run hinted at last night) at least for a brief time which could bring widespread double figures across the board! 

 

It looks too me the PV is strengthening also and this in turn is strengthening the jet stream in the Atlantic so theres the potential for a December like pattern to occur again. And it is most definately fair to say this is more likely than any easterly, which lets be honest has been non existing and the models have barely hinted at an easterly occuring.

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011812/ECH1-216.GIF?18-0

Awsome Chart

 

-6 widespread & snow.

 

Stella charts now getting close.

 

S

[johnholmes]

Just for the sake of variety SS, could you please discuss something other than High pressure and European temperature averages. Perhaps a more lateral view of what the models are showing!

 

you are asking for a leopard to its spots mate!