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Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Pucklechurch near Bristol 113m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers and cold winters with snow.
  • Location: Pucklechurch near Bristol 113m ASL

I think you do, what do you mean by 'venom' meteorologically speaking.

Jesus, I think he means low pressure systems and I think you probably know that.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Its funny I'm reading a thread suggesting there could be a turning point to this winter and the 18Z is churning our charts in the medium term of a mild SW'ly by an Azores high! 

 

I think a little bit of perspective is needed here, I think its no secret the ECM emphasizes blocking at times whilst the GFS can be too over progressive and the reality whether people like it or not is that there is still no real sign of any significant colder weather heading our way. There has been some eastward shifts on today's runs so whilst yesterday had the blocking just flirting with the UK for a brief moment, now it does not affect our weather at all. 

 

Obviously I'm not one for the technical side of the weather and you can never say never as there will always be changes but as far as I'm concerned, the output does not in my eyes suggest much chance of any significant colder weather for a while yet and its the same old story of looking for outputs far and wide too see something potentially colder!  

 

 

I think we will see the models showing increasingly colder evolutions appearing more and more in reliable timeframe as we move through the rest of the month - all in response to projected changes in the northern hemispheric pattern.

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Posted
  • Location: Milton Keynes
  • Location: Milton Keynes

incidentally, the ecm extended keep the arctic high but it is kept on its axis towards nw russia (see cloud's post above) as the vortex spits out more venom in our direction, again traversing the dumbelling atlantic ridge and dropping into europe. no appetite for any s greenland blocking beyond the day 10 weak upper ridge.  the control builds a huge block from the eastern seaboard across to russia with a strong s euro trough. we end up with the vortex energy having nowhere to go but the pole which sort of sets it apart from the ens mean !

I think this illustrates two of the main otions open with the arctic high (if it appears) - it can link up with the Scandi high and then we have a chance of a major cold outbreak. This is illustrated by P1 although we do not quite the cold yet.

Posted Image

The other option is that it links with the azores high through a mid atlantic ridge as shown on the ops.

post-9179-0-84229500-1389998716_thumb.pn

As NS and SM alluded to the first option is much better in terms of a real cold outbreak. With the second option because the PV is still located in NW Canada it is only a matter of time before it breaks down the ridge and we are back into more of the same mush. In addtion as NS suggested we have the worry that there is not quite enough amplification and the ridge is not enough to stop the low in NE US from phasing with the low over us - the result is no cold at all. The only route there to a major cold outbreak is if the mid atlantic ridge links up with the NW Russia high pressure through the latter ridging west  - e.g. P7

post-9179-0-57766600-1389998769_thumb.pn

 

So for me I would much prefer the 1st option. The main worry with this would be that it sets up to far East and the cold does not reach us or the Scandi high parks its bottom in the E Med.

 

So lots of interest to see how it all pans out but I know what I am rooting for.

 

Edit - of course anything is better than what we have just seen from the18Z

post-9179-0-07895100-1389998671_thumb.pn

Edited by swilliam
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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

It's Barry White.... (Cockney rhyming slang). 

It is and the FI is a crapological masterpiece

Posted Image

The puny Arctic High gets anihillated and the PV restrengthens and blasts wet and windy dross across us until the very end. 

Edited by chionomaniac
removed trolling smillies
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Are you ian brown in disguise ?

My favourite memory of last winter on here just came flooding back..WTF..I don't know what to say. :-) Let's hope the weather pendulum will bring all us snow starved coldies some gob smacking charts soon. I really think something wintry this way comes to a back yard near you.
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Posted
  • Location: Clwydian Hills 210/300 Metres ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Clwydian Hills 210/300 Metres ASL

Its funny I'm reading a thread suggesting there could be a turning point to this winter and the 18Z is churning our charts in the medium term of a mild SW'ly by an Azores high! 

 

I think a little bit of perspective is needed here, I think its no secret the ECM emphasizes blocking at times whilst the GFS can be too over progressive and the reality whether people like it or not is that there is still no real sign of any significant colder weather heading our way. There has been some eastward shifts on today's runs so whilst yesterday had the blocking just flirting with the UK for a brief moment, now it does not affect our weather at all. 

 

Obviously I'm not one for the technical side of the weather and you can never say never as there will always be changes but as far as I'm concerned, the output does not in my eyes suggest much chance of any significant colder weather for a while yet and its the same old story of looking for outputs far and wide too see something potentially colder!  

 

 

Do you think there is a reason why those who are ones for the "technical side of the weather" see the cold potential you don't? Clue: Answer is above in bold. 

 

There seems to be a lot of negativity from a group of posters tonight towards those who are very versed in the nature of the models, who don't take things at 240 hours at face value and attempt to see beyond what is showing based on vast experience and deep knowledge. These people, such as Steve Murr, Tamara, Snow King, Nick Sussex, Chino and Bluearmy (to name a few) are Netweather's best posters and without them the forum would be a much, much worse place. The disparaging comments, albeit indirectly, towards them are very much out of line and something that I feel should be pointed out. 

Edited by The Post-modern Winter
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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

Welcome February fill dike

Posted Image

Edited by chionomaniac
removed more tiresome trolling smillies
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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

I think this illustrates two of the main otions open with the arctic high (if it appears) - it can link up with the Scandi high and then we have a chance of a major cold outbreak. This is illustrated by P1 although we do not quite the cold yet.

Posted Image

The other option is that it links with the azores high through a mid atlantic ridge as shown on the ops.

Posted ImageECH1-240.GIF.png

As NS and SM alluded to the first option is much better in terms of a real cold outbreak. With the second option because the PV is still located in NW Canada it is only a matter of time before it breaks down the ridge and we are back into more of the same mush. In addtion as NS suggested we have the worry that there is not quite enough amplification and the ridge is not enough to stop the low in NE US from phasing with the low over us - the result is no cold at all. The only route there to a major cold outbreak is if the mid atlantic ridge links up with the NW Russia high pressure through the latter ridging west  - e.g. P7

Posted Imagegensnh-7-1-384.png

 

So for me I would much prefer the 1st option. The main worry with this would be that it sets up to far East and the cold does not reach us or the Scandi high parks its bottom in the E Med.

 

So lots of interest to see how it all pans out but I know what I am rooting for.

 

 

Good post - but another unknown factor is how much pressure is likely to be exerted on the PV - in any event it traditionally weakens through the latter part of the winter.

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Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35

I think a problem is people are expecting to see these cold charts appearing on the model runs now. Whilst they can do, some predictions made by various posts are talking of patterns that may POSSIBLY start showing up for 10-15 days time onwards I believe?

 

Therefore...that currently takes us into deep deep F.I and into the abyss on the outputs....when have the surface patten details ever been reliable at that timeframe? The trends at the moment are actually looking quite positive I feel!

 

If we are still seeing the same sort of 'zonal' filth people are talking about in a week or two...then perhaps I'll start stocking up on emergency weather-related stress kits. Just in case.

Edited by Chris K
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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

Welcome February fill dike

Posted Image

LOL...Posted ImagePosted Image

That's a brilliant chart you're just not looking at it in great detail like you always do.

 

PV is crumbling there one half sent to the other side of the pole while the piece of canada is drifting to pieces.

 

Also slight hints of cross-polar flow with a russian high edging into the pole.

 

 

Plus its NW'lies so its far from mild, wet yes but not mild.

Edited by SN0WM4N
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Overall the outputs have some interest but it's now becoming rather tiresome to have to fret over the smallest change in the relatively early timeframe which is exactly what we're left with at least to scrape some interest before the Arctic high, PV battle commences.

 

Theres still an outside chance of some snow given tonights trends, can we get a bit more westwards correction or will it be the case of seeing the snow falling just over the North Sea.

 

Later the outputs look like delivering perhaps either the final insult to this winter or a change of fortunes, I'd say given the Arctic high and other changes going on in the background then we need to see that deliver otherwise I fear it might just be one of those winters where things refuse to fall into place.

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Posted
  • Location: hertfordshire
  • Location: hertfordshire

I have saved the op run from the ECM 12Z today because the way the upper

atmosphere is changing I would not rule it out as another possibility for

the end of Jan and start of February.

That would be Jan 87 type cold.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

I have saved the op run from the ECM 12Z today because the way the upperatmosphere is changing I would not rule it out as another possibility forthe end of Jan and start of February.That would be Jan 87 type cold.

Lol! I think most at this stage would just be happy to see a few days of snow and an air frost given the sad excuse for a winter so far , unless that is you can issue the ECM control run as the way to go!

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol

 Watch this space for further updates - but certainly do not base forecasts on the rest of winter on the ECM 32 dayer - we need to be a little bit more lateral in our thinking I suspect.

i can assure you, if the ec32 was showing blocking, this place would would be citing it left right and centre! As for the model itself, it performs no better or worse than any other long range model, so of course we should use it with caution! But i can't ignore what its output highlights, this is now the fourth consecutive update showing a similar trend. A propensity to keep troughing present to our NW.If we look to the ext ecm tonight, which takes us up to end of the month - it is showing, once again, troughing to the nw, with little sign of blocking. So, while some are seeing positive signs, its too soon to know where this is all headed - but based on recent months, id say the pv has some more shouting to do! And the models suggest this.
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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

I think that this chart highlights a very disturbed polar vortex, it is not in the reliable timeframe and the split shows that any zonal conditions could be interupted very easily. Zonal for us perhaps in this timeframe but with potential that the disturbed vortex could lead to alternative possibilities - can you not see this Purga?

Yes I can Chiono, I'm just commenting on the dreadful 18z output as it stands and more than a little frustrated with all the 'promise' in the charts never seeming to come to fruition.

I appreiciate all the technical brilliance exhibited on here by many wise souls but until the models show proper cold within a realistic timespan and consistently, I will always remain cynical.

I sincerely hope this promised cold bonanza does come off in February or whenever it is supposed to just excuse me being less than hyped up over the prospects.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: heavy convective snow showers, blizzards, 30C sunshine
  • Location: Darlington

Its taken some seven weeks of winter but finally we are at a stage whereit is getting exciting anticipating the run to come with some real potentialpehaps post day 8 possibly even earlier.

well CC I hope you are right but I have just perused the evenings runs and nothing really stands out for me as screaming potential, apart from ukmo at 120 and 144 and we all know that they can be very wrong especially 144. 18z GFS looks pretty zonal from start to finish and ECM continues to tease in its post 144 output but it has done this all season with zip to show for it. I am very pessimistic about our chances to be honest and I think sometimes you have just got to admit that this winter will not deliver for us.

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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

Overall the outputs have some interest but it's now becoming rather tiresome to have to fret over the smallest change in the relatively early timeframe which is exactly what we're left with at least to scrape some interest before the Arctic high, PV battle commences.

 

Theres still an outside chance of some snow given tonights trends, can we get a bit more westwards correction or will it be the case of seeing the snow falling just over the North Sea.

 

Later the outputs look like delivering perhaps either the final insult to this winter or a change of fortunes, I'd say given the Arctic high and other changes going on in the background then we need to see that deliver otherwise I fear it might just be one of those winters where things refuse to fall into place.

 

96 hr fax chart teaser with fronts approaching from east and west!

 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

i can assure you, if the ec32 was showing blocking, this place would would be citing it left right and centre! As for the model itself, it performs no better or worse than any other long range model, so of course we should use it with caution! But i can't ignore what its output highlights, this is now the fourth consecutive update showing a similar trend. A propensity to keep troughing present to our NW.If we look to the ext ecm tonight, which takes us up to end of the month - it is showing, once again, troughing to the nw, with little sign of blocking. So, while some are seeing positive signs, its too soon to know where this is all headed - but based on recent months, id say the pv has some more shouting to do! And the models suggest this.

Fair points but you have to admit that it's taken a long time for the jet to finally look like its going to get east of the UK in a convincing fashion on the extended ens. If these runs were right, we would be in a strong westerly flow by the 20th. The current output looking like even when the jet makes it through, most of its oomph (that's pram speak for strength) will still be se ino Europe. the extended ens probably have a handle on the jet but doubtful they have it in the right place re longitude. The troughs and ridges will be more progressive or retrogressive post day 10.
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Posted
  • Location: Glyn Ceiriog. 197m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow in winter, good sun at other times with appropriate rain.
  • Location: Glyn Ceiriog. 197m ASL

Jesus, I think he means low pressure systems and I think you probably know that.

No,I didn't know. I read this thread to learn about weather, not personal angst about weather, but thanks for the explanation.
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I see potential for a colder version of the very disturbed pattern we had during most of december with rather more polar maritime / arctic influence.

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