Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards

[bobbydog]

Tonight’s 12z ECM run looking very similar to some recent GFS runs especially at around the 240hr mark, it will of course change at that range, but if it comes close then it will be a big coup for the GFS in regards a pattern that could affect us, whatever the verification stats say, every dog has its day sometimes.

 

hmm..... i thought the same earlier, looking at the runs from each model. however my view on the GFS is tempered by the fact that it is undergoing a major overhaul as it has recognised flaws. (the new, improved version to be unveiled in the spring) these flaws are apparently being ironed out with the help of the ECM staff. maybe its not such a coup, maybe its a reflection of a work in progress?

[festivalking]

Until gibby says the charts are looking full of snow and ice all talk of Arctic highs stuff happening at 240 predicting the next frame etc etc are just background noise.

Gibby keep up the good work in amongst the usual winter banter

[Long haul to mild]

Tonight’s 12z ECM run looking very similar to some recent GFS runs especially at around the 240hr mark, it will of course change at that range, but if it comes close then it will be a big coup for the GFS in regards a pattern that could affect us, whatever the verification stats say, every dog has its day sometimes.

The similarity is remarkable and should be watched very closely. There will no doubt be ups and downs on the way, but those Greenland heights, if they verify, would be a massive game changer for the UK's weather.

[Jason T]

Blimey Look at the Control run dive sharp for Netherlands Last week of the Jan.

 

[legritter]

Iv just taken a good look at current charts and Data and also taken into account the met office update about a week ago concerning colder conditions possible and seeing we have high pressure pushing down from the pole on the ECM later frames ,iv allowed myself a clutch from my box of straws .certainly very interesting synoptics possible and plenty to keep us interested ,nothing boring in the outlook with signs of pressure rising across the pole ,and the atlantic still remaining mobile ,lets hope it can be a lethal combination Cheers all .

[Bobby]

Blimey Look at the Control run dive sharp for Netherlands Last week of the Jan.

 

 

Lol, now that's what I call an outlier, a real Steve Murr run. Reasonably good agreement on those ensembles though out that far.

[Captain Shortwave]

Blimey Look at the Control run dive sharp for Netherlands Last week of the Jan.

 

err.... well I guess the control run found a route to drag that Siberian beast at least as far as the Netherlands, yikes 

Maxima in double figures.... NEGATIVE DOUBLE FIGURES!!!!

Edited January 17, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[nick sussex]

Looking at those ensembles the wind directions are interesting and show a cluster of solutions with the pattern further west when you correlate these with the temperatures.

 

The split in solutions starts around the 22nd.

 

http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/?r=midden&type=eps_pluim

 

You can see the various trough positions and orientations on the ECM postage stamps:

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/teasers/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!120!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2014011712!!/

 

The latest NAM supports the Euros in terms of more dig south of the jet and  a better orientated low near the UK, lets hope the GFS edges across to that.

Edited January 17, 2014 by nick sussex

[Cloud 10]

ecm op and ens mean in excellent agreement right to day 10.

 

Yes,importantly they both have the big red bit in the middle. 

 

op run..  ens..

[bluearmy]

incidentally, the ecm extended keep the arctic high but it is kept on its axis towards nw russia (see cloud's post above) as the vortex spits out more venom in our direction, again traversing the dumbelling atlantic ridge and dropping into europe. no appetite for any s greenland blocking beyond the day 10 weak upper ridge.  the control builds a huge block from the eastern seaboard across to russia with a strong s euro trough. we end up with the vortex energy having nowhere to go but the pole which sort of sets it apart from the ens mean !

Edited January 17, 2014 by bluearmy

[Captain Shortwave]

Well the GFS to my surprise has backed the euros and pushed beyond the ECM and sends more energy south east

Still too far east but if a monster Arctic high is looming any westward corrections of that Scandi high will be a big plus.

Nope sober run, after day 5 everything heads in the standard east/north east direction.

Edited January 17, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[snefnug]

incidentally, the ecm extended keep the arctic high but it is shoved onto an axis towards central russia as the vortex spits out more venom in our direction......."

Sorry- could you put this in non-romantic terminology? What is this venom? Is it a weather term or pram speak?

[Chris K]

 

Until gibby says the charts are looking full of snow and ice all talk of Arctic highs stuff happening at 240 predicting the next frame etc etc are just background noise.

Gibby keep up the good work in amongst the usual winter banter

 

Welcome to the model output discussion thread..designed for...discussing model outputs! 

 

Let the 'background noise' continue! 

[weatherguy]

Until gibby says the charts are looking full of snow and ice all talk of Arctic highs stuff happening at 240 predicting the next frame etc etc are just background noise.Gibby keep up the good work in amongst the usual winter banter

 

I think that's a tad unfair on other posters really.  It's all about forecasting/posting style.

 

Gibby tends to give an overview on what the models are showing in the more reliable, and does an excellent job of that, but it's certainly wrong to write off some of the excellent posters such as Steve Murr who talk about what could happen, using experience and their own knowledge allied to the model output to come up with their own forecasts/interpretations of the output.  I value all discussion.

Edited January 17, 2014 by weatherguy

[nick sussex]

The GFS backs the ECM over the USA as it now develops that shortwave at T120hrs, we should keep an eye on this feature on future runs because if it verifies and develops more it could engage the PV chunk and help to pull this a bit further to the nw.

 

It all goes pearshaped as a pesky shortwave waits for the energy upstream to phase, and then the ship has sailed, that low needs to separate from the upstream energy, at least it has edged a little to the Euros but its very chaotic and its hard to have a lot of faith in any of the outputs for detail past T96hrs.

Edited January 17, 2014 by nick sussex

[bluearmy]

incidentally, the ecm extended keep the arctic high but it is shoved onto an axis towards central russia as the vortex spits out more venom in our direction......."

Sorry- could you put this in non-romantic terminology? What is this venom? Is it a weather term or pram speak?

 

whats 'pram speak?'. i have 5 kids and none of them ever used the word 'venom'. mind you , none of them ever went in a pram!  i dont think i need to elucidate on my post !

Edited January 17, 2014 by bluearmy

[Geordiesnow]

Its funny I'm reading a thread suggesting there could be a turning point to this winter and the 18Z is churning our charts in the medium term of a mild SW'ly by an Azores high! 

 

I think a little bit of perspective is needed here, I think its no secret the ECM emphasizes blocking at times whilst the GFS can be too over progressive and the reality whether people like it or not is that there is still no real sign of any significant colder weather heading our way. There has been some eastward shifts on today's runs so whilst yesterday had the blocking just flirting with the UK for a brief moment, now it does not affect our weather at all. 

 

Obviously I'm not one for the technical side of the weather and you can never say never as there will always be changes but as far as I'm concerned, the output does not in my eyes suggest much chance of any significant colder weather for a while yet and its the same old story of looking for outputs far and wide too see something potentially colder!  

[snefnug]

whats 'pram speak?'. i have 5 kids and none of them ever used the word 'venom'. mind you , none of them ever went in a pram!  i dont think i need to elucidate on my post !

I think you do, what do you mean by 'venom' meteorologically speaking.

[Purga]

18z totally zonal and unsettled in the reliable timeframe

Atlantic overpowering a weak block

[chionomaniac]

Until gibby says the charts are looking full of snow and ice all talk of Arctic highs stuff happening at 240 predicting the next frame etc etc are just background noise.Gibby keep up the good work in amongst the usual winter banter

That is all very well but we know that charts at T+240 do not necessarily show what actually occurs by the time that becomes T+0. One of the skills in looking at the charts is finding the trends that lead up to T+240 and encorporating this into the other signals that are becoming evident around this time and then using this to determine what may actually occur. Sometimes these signals do not verify, but at other times a high degree of uncertainty suggests that these should not be ignored. Now could just be one of those time to look at the changing background signals to see what else could be possible.

 

Firstly we can look at the strat output - At long last the extreme cold strong vortex conditions are waning and further attacks on the polar vortex are forecast to continue. This is leading to splits in the vortex which, even though there are strong unfavourable tropospheric temperature differentials across north America, the split could end up hindering any resultant jet streams progress across the North Atlantic. 

This could be further encouraged by the MJO forecasts which suggest that there will be amplification of any pattern across the North Atlantic which is showing that any Azores High will disrupt the jet stream progress across the North Atlantic with a trend to link with Arctic heights.

 

The 10- 15 day outlook is looking as promising as it has all winter and we are as close as we have been all winter to see colder meridional conditions take hold come February.

 

Watch this space for further updates - but certainly do not base forecasts on the rest of winter on the ECM 32 dayer - we need to be a little bit more lateral in our thinking I suspect.

[SnowObsessor90]

The high to our our NE has been a bit more further west on this run but what sort of knock  on effect will this have in terms of developments later on? Good or bad?

 

Unfortunately bad by the looks of it, if were a betting man I'd put all my money on this type of scenario occurring.

Edited January 17, 2014 by SnowObsessor90

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Would be nice to tap into that cold over Scandi or the Arctic perhaps. However, if we dont, we dont! For me, one half is pain ( snow and ice) but the other half is gain in the sense that higher SST's and a head start to summer could be on the cards if we see little in the way of cold. Higher sea temp anomalies could well make a massive difference throughout the year, as i believe that they did this Autumn with some exceptional storms along the South Coast in October! 

If something is not panning out as you like, simply think of the good things that will actually benefit from the conditions modelled! For me it works very well being a storm and snow lover  

[MrSunshine]

18z totally zonal and unsettled in the reliable timeframe

Atlantic overpowering a weak block

 

It's Barry White.... (Cockney rhyming slang). 

[Captain Shortwave]

GFS way too far east by day 7 and low resolution makes things worse. Still a big arctic high inbound.

Zonal your way out of this!!

 

Edit - I will shut up now 

Edited January 17, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[nick sussex]

I think we're seeing a solid trend now for the overall NH pattern in the medium term, unfortunately the detail is missing, the PV main chunk will head south into the USA as the Arctic high pushes south, high pressure will remain to the east, low pressure heads se through the UK and then the PV decides to  throw another low east.

 

You can see however the problem upstream, unless the Arctic high can sink the jet so far south then unless its amplified the PV will just phase with the troughing near the UK, so T264hrs and counting and its seemingly impossible to get a clearance of energy with the upstream PV!

 

I've never known such a resolute trend to not eject one single shortwave cleanly! I think we need a big westwards correction!

Edited January 17, 2014 by nick sussex