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Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset

    Split Vortex at +144 from the Ecm and The Arctic High starts Diving South down the middle , should be a good run from here... 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Grimsby, North East Lincolnshire 16m asl
  • Location: Grimsby, North East Lincolnshire 16m asl

    High pressure moving closer at t144

     

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    Coldest air remains in eastern europe

     

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    I know you will already know this Gavin, but for those that don't know the colder uppers are often found in eastern Europe in winter, this is the norm. Things look a darn sign cooler though for western Europe than they do now if those charts were to verify. Edited by Grimsby Snow Lover
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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    ECM 168

     

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011712/ECH1-168.GIF?17-0

    Arctic high in a NICE position- remember South or East of Svalbard is fine....

     

    need the low to move through the UK omn a SE track..

     

    S

    Edited by Steve Murr
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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Low pressure starting to move down from the north west at t168 as less cold air moves in from the west

     

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    Closer look at the 850's

     

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    Edited by Summer Sun
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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    That will do, though it would be nice to have more forcing south east by this point

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    The low can't go east or north east by this point, into Europe you go Posted Image

    Edit - well unless the Azores high wants the Scandi high more

    Edited by Captain shortwave
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    Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset

    at+168 Arctic high linked and gone all the way down into Europe , Still to far East , but let;s see if the Azores links .... 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    You want the Scandi ridge to join with the arctic high so it funnels the cold through central europe west-

     

    thats the very best route-

     

    The cold route when it gets into greenland isnt as good as its more likely to be transient...

     

    192 may well see those 2 high pressure join...

     

    S

    Edited by Steve Murr
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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Lol! please stop! someone please nuke that PV its seriously beginning to get on my wick now. A better run from the ECM upto T168hrs but everything is still too far east, there are loads of differences between the models upstream over the USA so no doubt there will be more changes, lets hope that we buck the trend of recent weeks and these are more favourable towards cold.

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    Split Vortex at +144 from the Ecm and The Arctic High starts Diving South down the middle , should be a good run from here... 

     

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    U would think but another stalemate more likely but nice quick arctic ridge nice but be careful from here on is where it becomes complicated.
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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    we know what should happen at day 8 but thats a big jet streak approaching the uk. too many 'big players' all bouncing around at the same time. could be 'boom'. could be 'bust'!

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    Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

    Funny people say there has been a westwards movement yet from what I seen, everything has shifted eastwards and any heights over to the NE does not even affect us apart from the UKMO run perhaps.

     

    Its a little bit like chasing for something more significant in terms of cold weather yet you can see the light at the end of the tunnel but we don't seem to be edging towards it. 

     

    I guess the good thing about the weather is that it could all change and things may eventually become favorable but from the runs I have been seeing, an easterly blast looks quite slim and it be more of a battleground type set up with high pressure to the East and low pressure affecting the UK and the Atlantic. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Colder air coming back at t192 as the low stays maybe some hill snow for the north? Split PV as well if I'm looking at it correctly

     

    Posted ImagePosted Image

     

    Closer look at the 850's

     

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    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

    We do need that correction westwards

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    C'mon Nick put your fluence on it mate!

    Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    Lol! please stop! someone please nuke that PV its seriously beginning to get on my wick now. A better run from the ECM upto T168hrs but everything is still too far east, there are loads of differences between the models upstream over the USA so no doubt there will be more changes, lets hope that we buck the trend of recent weeks and these are more favourable towards cold.

     

    Yep if ECM follows the theme of the GEFS, there's a limited time to get things together towards a cold outlook for the UK before the PV regains its character again.

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset

    U would think but another stalemate more likely but nice quick arctic ridge nice but be careful from here on is where it becomes complicated.

    We will see but if you look on the +168 , The Atlantic Low can't go East 1055mb High pressure Can't go North cause of Strong High pressure above it .... It's trapped , so I figure it will either go back West or die it self out over the UK , but we will see . 

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    We do need that correction westwards

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    C'mon Nick put your fluence on it mate!

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    If I could I would! Very frustrating, its amazing just how many times we're in this same situation where a few hundred miles means the difference between a snow fest and crapola!

     

    If we could just scrape even a hundred miles west correction at T96hrs and more of a negative tilt to that low that would be at least a start.

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset

    Main GL Votex , Clear shift Westward between +168 and +192 , would have thought only a matter of time from here. 

     

    Also a bigger stronger Arctic High also with a big shift West ,... looking good ... 

    Edited by snowmadchrisuk
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    Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

    we know what should happen at day 8 but thats a big jet streak approaching the uk. too many 'big players' all bouncing around at the same time. could be 'boom'. could be 'bust'!

    You have to fancy bust really as the jet just looks to strong and aligned all wrong for anything in the way of sustained cold. I still feel we are looking at cold snaps rather than spells, still that's far better than anything else we've endured thus far. Edited by Sceptical Inquirer
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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    we know what should happen at day 8 but thats a big jet streak approaching the uk. too many 'big players' all bouncing around at the same time. could be 'boom'. could be 'bust'!

    It's a big game of spin that wheel to determine where the Arctic heights will end up at. With a bit more amplification from the Azores high and a bit less jet streaky and with the Scandi heights not totally vanquished it could be game on in 10 - 15 days.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Another deep low lining up at t216

     

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    Posted Image

    Edited by Summer Sun
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    Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

    Some very stormy charts from the ECM & GFS, interesting times ahead whichever way you look at it.

     

    post-9615-0-21049700-1389984789_thumb.gipost-9615-0-76373800-1389984789_thumb.gipost-9615-0-24517300-1389984799_thumb.pn

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    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

    Low, after low, after low, pushing over the high and nose diving across the UK according to GFS, could be wintry here and there, but no freeze. Need a polar vortex shut down, which isn't going to happen.Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    You have to fancy bust really as the jet just looks to strong and aligned all wrong for anything in the way of sustained cold. I still feel we are looking at cold snaps rather than spells, still that's far better than anything else we've endured thus far.

     

    It's a possibility. It could be we end up on the unsettled side of the vortex split, PV as strong as ever around Canada/Greenland. Perfectly plausible in fact; hence my 'pot luck' comment earlier. Put it this way, it's going to take a lot of luck getting things aligned perfectly for the UK.....and let's face it, that's hardly been in abundance recently.

    Edited by CreweCold
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    Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset

    Another deep low lining up at t216

     

    You really need to look at the NH Charts , it is undercutting the Arctic High and pushing it West , now into Greenland. 

     

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