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Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards


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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

    Blimey UKMO is close but oh so far away!

    Posted Image

    Can't see the 850's yet can anyone?

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    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

    I've been meaning to ask for a while... What in the name of Greek touchery is Shannon Entrophy?

    I'm very uncertain what it means. Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    Stop looking East for snow, if its coming, its coming from the North, been that way for a week now..

    http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140117/12/204/h500slp.png

    The same signal three runs in a row, with proper Greenland heights and getting closer too. And we all know GFS is great at Northerlies.

    http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140117/12/240/h500slp.png

    Edited by mountain shadow
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    Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

    With everyone talking of the Scandi High, Arctic High, Greenland High we've taken our eyes off probably the most important high of them all - the Azores High.

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    I didn't think upper heights like that were possible over the pole in late January? AO would be through the floor.

    http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140117/12/264/npsh500.png

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    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

    Hello PV nice of you to pay us a visit!

    Posted Image

    Nice FI coming up folks

    Posted Image

    See i'm not always a miserable old git...Posted ImagePosted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    Yes the ukmo looks much better than gfs but by 144h i suspect the energy will be going NE with the Azores high the spoiler...

     

    Yes that's the problem. The jet is riding over the top, no chance of cold for a good while from that chart IMO.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

    Blimey UKMO is close but oh so far away!

    Posted Image

    Can't see the 850's yet can anyone?

     

     

    For some reason, the UKMO 850hPa temps only go to T72.

     

    Anyway, our Arctic high is back again at T260 on the GFS 12z. 3 runs in a row.

     

    Posted Image

     

    Now watch it shrink, shrink, shrink as we approach T0. Posted Image

    Edited by Yarmy
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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    so here we go gfs very progressive and going the long winded way but the northern hemisphere profile is good in the longer term as you can see splitting the vortex and heights building nicely into the arctic cycle.

     

    now the ukmo has heights holding strong as I suggested earlier I believe the ukmo over the gfs any day and again you can see the polar heights building and added bonus of heights remaining strong into ne Europe with lower heights to our south and south east although not extremely low.

    with a southeast feed into south eastern parts of the uk its a fairly good run.

    Posted Image

    now the gem wants a fight but looks rather odd but has a much better European setup with heights to the north east and much lower heights into Europe bring a sharper and colder easterly but over all the main feature is the arctic blocking building once again on the 12z runs.

    Posted Image

     

    its all long winded and could be that the ukmo is of the mark and we may have to wait beyond the ten days.

     

    but chart of the day although the weaker of the main models is the gem but there is still lots of potential but still a stalemate in tonights shorter term model runs lets see what the ecm thinks.

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    Posted
  • Location: hertfordshire
  • Location: hertfordshire

    Its strange riding home from work thinking this can not really be winter,

    someones playing a practical joke and then you see the t264 chart on the

    GFS 12z and realise what we have been missing.Out in FI land I know but the

    signal is getting stronger and hopefully there is some real winter ahead of

    us.

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    Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

    For some reason, the UKMO 850hPa temps only go to T72.

     

    Anyway, our Arctic high is back again at T260 on the GFS 12z. 3 runs in a row.

     

    Posted Image

     

    Now watch it shrink, shrink, shrink as we approach T0. Posted Image

    yarmy thats just typical though isn't it!!could you just imagine if the greenland high got larger and larger as it approached t0 hours!!it would be amazing!!
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    Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington

    Yes that's the problem. The jet is riding over the top, no chance of cold for a good while from that chart IMO.

    Yeah see that nowJumped the gun a littleStill learning
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    Posted
  • Location: Shorne West, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Sun in summer, Snow in Winter
  • Location: Shorne West, Kent

    Its strange riding home from work thinking this can not really be winter,someones playing a practical joke and then you see the t264 chart on theGFS 12z and realise what we have been missing.Out in FI land I know but thesignal is getting stronger and hopefully there is some real winter ahead ofus.

     

    Just to add that January's CET is currently at 6.2C. If it stays around that mark it will be the mildest January since 2008.  

    FYI...the warmest January ever recorded stands at a mean CET of 7.0C

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Location: Cambridge

    Just a variation on a developing theme from GFS, with an Arctic High retrogressing southwards towards Greenland within +240, combined with HP advecting towards the pole from the North Atlantic. Not necessarily a guarantee of cold weather, but two fantastic trends which combined, would lead to a negative NAO, a weaker and more southerly jet stream and, therefore (hopefully), colder weather for somewhere in Europe. It may just be a fleeting blip in the output, as it was with that pretend Easterly a couple of weeks ago, but there are certainly some interesting trends about - perhaps this *could* be the best opportunity yet for cold (and hopefully snow) this winter - thats if these trends edge closer to the reliable timeframe of course.

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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

    Trends starting to look better. The northerly displayed for the end of January on GFS reminds me of January 30th 2003. That so far has been the best northerly I can ever remember, a repeat of that would not go amiss!

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    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

    Trends starting to look better. The northerly displayed for the end of January on GFS reminds me of January 30th 2003. That so far has been the best northerly I can ever remember, a repeat of that would not go amiss!

    The GFS northerly does look impressive and I remember 2003, thunder snow, total white out conditions and horizontal snow....if that makes sense.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Latest GFS 8 day temperature anomaly shows temperatures 12c below normal for some eastern parts of Europe back here in the UK and most places see temperatures slightly above normal the exceptions are parts of eastern England, western Scotland, most of northern Ireland

     

    Posted Image

     

    Normal temps left, expected temps right

     

    Posted ImagePosted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Stockport
  • Location: Stockport

    Posted Image

    Normal temps left, expected temps right

    Posted ImagePosted Image

    Funny how the cold just stops at the Polish and Ukrainian borders. The positive is that it is actually there, all bottled up waiting for an easterly wind to colour Western Europe blue. Edited by March Blizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: Stockport
  • Location: Stockport

    Indeed, or it could just sink southward and onwards bit like the last time? Not wishing to sound negative - just trying to remain realistic, but i would of course love to be proven totally wrong.

    Knowing our luck this winter South Sudan will have a flake of snow before us!
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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

    The GFS northerly does look impressive and I remember 2003, thunder snow, total white out conditions and horizontal snow....if that makes sense.

    Same for here. Was a proper blizzard for 12 hours straight. Really did stick out like a sore thumb back in those mild years too!
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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Well putting aside the GFS lower resolution I'm much more interested in tonights UKMO which is not so straightforward as first might seem, the high is actually strengthening between 120 and 144hrs.

     

    Low pressure over Italy and still disrupting energy over the UK, the Azores high is a bit of a spoiler but that output is the best for a few days after the constant edging east of the pattern.

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