Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards

[TSNWK]

I can understand the sentiment but don't give up just yet. There is still enough variability run to run and noise in the ensembles for something to turn up at short notice even if it isn't the Easterly we were originally looking at and even that isn't completely off the menu either.

Oh I'm battle hardened right from bbc snowwatch days. These last couple of days are what I would consider to be a bog standard back away from cold situation, usually get 2 or 3 each winter. Anyway your right about variability it just seems to me that the trend still went the wrong way this afternoon on12z.We still have the interesting post from Tamara and Johns PDFs were not without interest.And like many of us I will take a peek at ECM Edited January 10, 2014 by TSNWK

[IDO]

Only good news is in the strat with Wave 1 activity, so possible displacement late Jan?Feb:

 

Warming at T384 GFS 12z:  Heights same time:

 

May get rid of the PV from Greenland? 

[Tamara]

Yes a disappointing set of 12zs so far.

Those heights to the NE look weaker and consequently the Atlantic trough is pulled further north.

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014011012/UN72-21.GIF?10-17

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014011012/gfsnh-0-72.png?12

 

it looks likely that we have lost this window of opportunity for getting that cold west as those Scandi.heights are modeled to slip away and fill leaving us in a stationary European trough.

Hi Phil

 

I think it should be remembered that this potential easterly was always a longer shot against the background of the huge amount of westerly energy that has been in the system. Hence why I suggested earlier that getting mere hints of trough disruption and some split flow so quickly as a change from the raging flat jet stream pattern of recent weeks before the middle of January should be viewed as a positive step forward. There are many zonally front loaded winters that struggle to achieve this at all in January.

 

There are never guarantees of course, but on this basis we should look to see how the pattern can develop further down the line with hopefully further activity to destabilise the winter time vortex further.

 

At this stage whilst an immediate UK easterly may well prove elusive, I remain sceptical, at least for the time being, that those heights to the NE are going to slip away so quickly. As suggested earlier, the models may prove overly progressive in trying to break down the block. Time will tell

Edited January 10, 2014 by Tamara תָּמָר

[cooling climate]

The signal for a very active period for around 16th with full moon looks like it will not be ruled by any block to our N east and even the GEM is now jumping ship from holding heights to our NE.  Now I think we are seeing the way forward and its going down hill for cold.  No prolonged cold blast, indeed if we even get any cold blast....its now not looking good at all.  I wouldn't be surprised to see further runs push this LP system even further east through us....which may give us some back edge stuff.

I think its going to get pretty wet next week.

 

 

BFTP

Is this a different Moon from the one that was calling cold. I wonder if the NWP models take

into account the phases of the moon. Maybe that is where they are going wrong lol.

[Bullseye]

People jumped the ship too early as usual, although wouldnt rule anything out yet. JB tweeting good news regarding Strat. GEFS options are looking good (not all). Can we be disappointed though? We have in past 5 years winters experienced some great even unbelievably snow/cold minus 2011/12 season , similar pattern to 1994 across the pond lets hope we follow suit...

[The PIT]

I'm surprised the model scores are so high after the last few days fiasco.  T120 http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/new_acz5.html and T140 http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/new_acz6.html

I've noticed there's one or two snow risk charts out there but the last few all have been rubbish and wrong. Well for us. Can't even get a good storm out of the runs. If it ain';t going to be cold let it be stormy.

People jumped the ship too early as usual, although wouldnt rule anything out yet. JB tweeting good news regarding Strat. GEFS options are looking good (not all). Can we be disappointed though? We have in past 5 years winters experienced some great even unbelievably snow/cold minus 2011/12 season , similar pattern to 1994 across the pond lets hope we follow suit...

Don't take any notice of JB you can copy and paste what he says from year to other. 

[Long haul to mild]

I'm putting what little reputation I have on the line here, but I'll wager that the ever over-progressive GFS is blowing that block away far too quickly. It kept trying to do that during last winter's cold spell and it was wrong every single time, as the block held firm.

Admittedly, the block as it is seems determined not to give us any interesting synoptics at the moment, but this is a volatile situation and I don't think we can just say "game over" while there is still so much to play for. Models rarely handle these setups accurately and the weather often has the last laugh.

I'm certainly not giving up on the 10th January. Most snowy winters I remember growing up hadn't started at this point!

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Does anyone know what the updated ec32 run suggested this morning?

[IDO]

I'm putting what little reputation I have on the line here, but I'll wager that the ever over-progressive GFS is blowing that block away far too quickly. It kept trying to do that during last winter's cold spell and it was wrong every single time, as the block held firm.Admittedly, the block as it is seems determined not to give us any interesting synoptics at the moment, but this is a volatile situation and I don't think we can just say "game over" while there is still so much to play for. Models rarely handle these setups accurately and the weather often has the last laugh.I'm certainly not giving up on the 10th January. Most snowy winters I remember growing up hadn't started at this point!

HiGEM, the model that has led the way with regard to the cold spell is even more progressive on the 12z with blowing away the block. It seems to me several days ago that ECM & GEM overplayed the strength of the Scandinavia high, and in fact it was never meant to be more than a transient feature?Not that I have a definitive answer to where we will be in six days time but the trend is certainly to downplay any blocking signal to our NE so barring a flip that's where we are. I have moved on and am now trying to see where we go from there... Edited January 10, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[Weather-history]

Is this a different Moon from the one that was calling cold. I wonder if the NWP models takeinto account the phases of the moon. Maybe that is where they are going wrong lol.

Lunar influences? Sceptical, very sceptical. Lunar phases are predictable, you can tell what phase the moon will be at a certain date in the year 3000. So why isn't the weather more predictable as a result? Because they are so many variables.

[Jason T]

Who posted that JasonT?

 

 

Here you go link. https://twitter.com/WSI_Energy/status/421673019723894785/photo/1

[shaky]

Can anyone post yesterdays ukmo t120 chart to today's t96 to compare??thanks

[Long haul to mild]

HiGEM, the model that has led the way with regard to the cold spell is even more progressive on the 12z with blowing away the block. It seems to me several days ago that ECM & GEM overplayed the strength of the Scandinavia high, and in fact it was never meant to be more than a transient feature?Not that I have a definitive answer to where we will be in six days time but the trend is certainly to downplay any blocking signal to our NE so barring a flip that's where we are. I have moved on and are now trying to see where we go from there...

Hi

 

Fair points, but I still think that the strength of blocking is often underestimated by the models. Is it on this occasion? As yet, I don't think we can be sure.

 

However, I would tend to agree that next week is looking increasingly unlikely in terms of anything particularly cold but this potential spell seemed to come out of the blue anyway. There is currently no reason to disbelieve the (albeit tentative) signs that have been there for some while that something much colder may follow for the last third of Jan and into Feb.

[carinthian]

Our own forecast Raw Data sources are still a million miles away from what is being shown this evening from particuarly the GFS and UKMO models who both seem to sink the Scandinavian High and cold away from Western Europe rather quickly. The problem still seem to be the handling of the low forming out in the Atlantic, these models want to push away any cold chance in a short pulse,  whereas we send lower heights into Europe with cold block holding on further to the Northeast.

 Maybe ECM may come to our rescue? Still time for a change again this weekend.

C

[phil nw.]

Hi Phil

 

I think it should be remembered that this potential easterly was always a longer shot against the background of the huge amount of westerly energy that has been in the system. Hence why I suggested earlier that getting mere hints of trough disruption and some split flow so quickly as a change from the raging flat jet stream pattern of recent weeks before the middle of January should be viewed as a positive step forward. There are many zonally front loaded winters that struggle to achieve this at all in January.

 

There are never gaurantees of course, but on this basis we should look to see how the pattern can develop further down the line with hopefully further activity to destabilise the winter time vortex further.

 

At this stage whilst an immediate UK easterly may well prove elusive, I remain sceptical, at least for the time being, that those heights to the NE are going to slip away so quickly. As suggested earlier, the models may prove overly progressive in trying to break down the block. Time will tell

Hi Tamara,

 

Of course my comments re.window closing was reference next week and those T72hr links look pretty conclusive now.

Although never on board wrt a full on Easterly i did think we had an even chance of some colder continental air  getting here on a slack se type of flow by mid week.This on the back of se sliding trough.

How quickly things have changed since those juicy charts from Wednesday.

 

The ens means have been heralding the demise of the current block beyond next week ,for a couple of days,with the Atlantic revisiting-no reason to think differently for now really.

 

Not to say something interesting will not reappear before month's end mind you-let's hope so because another long period of wet weather from the west is one thing we don't need.

 

Excellent posts by the way.

[TSNWK]

Our own forecast Raw Data sources are still a million miles away from what is being shown this evening from particuarly the GFS and UKMO models who both seem to sink the Scandinavian High and cold away from Western Europe rather quickly. The problem still seem to be the handling of the low forming out in the Atlantic, these models want to push away any cold chance in a short pulse,  whereas we send lower heights into Europe with cold block holding on further to the Northeast. Maybe ECM may come to our rescue? Still time for a change again this weekend.C

May I ask what these raw data sources are please..

[shaky]

Our own forecast Raw Data sources are still a million miles away from what is being shown this evening from particuarly the GFS and UKMO models who both seem to sink the Scandinavian High and cold away from Western Europe rather quickly. The problem still seem to be the handling of the low forming out in the Atlantic, these models want to push away any cold chance in a short pulse,  whereas we send lower heights into Europe with cold block holding on further to the Northeast. Maybe ECM may come to our rescue? Still time for a change again this weekend.C

well carinthian if I must say the gfs ensembles look interesting at 168 hours with some of them actually having higher pressure across the north of the uk and low pressure to the south which means you may still be right!!

[Long haul to mild]

Model Q&As:

 

Are tonight's models rubbish for cold next week? : Yes

 

Are they definitely correct about that? : No, not yet

 

Could they be underestimating the strength of the block to the North East? : Yes

 

Is the GFS zonal in low res? : Of course

 

Will someone dig out the Bolivian model later, which shows a raging Easterly for next Wednesday? : Highly likely

 

WIll someone, based on this set of 12z models, write off the rest of winter? : Without a doubt

 

 

Edited January 10, 2014 by Chalk Serpent

[Stuie]

Hi Phil

 

I think it should be remembered that this potential easterly was always a longer shot against the background of the huge amount of westerly energy that has been in the system. Hence why I suggested earlier that getting mere hints of trough disruption and some split flow so quickly as a change from the raging flat jet stream pattern of recent weeks before the middle of January should be viewed as a positive step forward. There are many zonally front loaded winters that struggle to achieve this at all in January.

 

There are never guarantees of course, but on this basis we should look to see how the pattern can develop further down the line with hopefully further activity to destabilise the winter time vortex further.

 

At this stage whilst an immediate UK easterly may well prove elusive, I remain sceptical, at least for the time being, that those heights to the NE are going to slip away so quickly. As suggested earlier, the models may prove overly progressive in trying to break down the block. Time will tell

I`m with you Tamara, sceptical. No idea why this low is being that hard to model and the demise of the Scandi high. ECM rolling.... lets see!

[Summer Sun]

Does anyone know what the updated ec32 run suggested this morning?

 

A post late last night said it looks similar to Tuesdays update

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Our own forecast Raw Data sources are still a million miles away from what is being shown this evening from particuarly the GFS and UKMO models who both seem to sink the Scandinavian High and cold away from Western Europe rather quickly. The problem still seem to be the handling of the low forming out in the Atlantic, these models want to push away any cold chance in a short pulse,  whereas we send lower heights into Europe with cold block holding on further to the Northeast.

 Maybe ECM may come to our rescue? Still time for a change again this weekend.

C

Well i for one hope you are correct C and it would be a great coup for your computer but the odds of it? I'd say less than 5% im afraid.

[SMU]

Afternoon-

 

I haven't ready ANY posts today so apologies-

 

I will just repeat what I posted last night about why the cold hasn't happened-

To get trough disruption & subsequent splitting of lows we rely heavily on the scandi high forcing its way west-  This isn't going to happen & a reminder of recent years where residual energy left over in Southern scandi is frequently becoming a scupper for cold from the east- you never see any scandi shortwaves in the archives!!

 

anyway here it is in todays models-

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014011012/gem-0-96.png?12  now the GEM has resolved it the cold runs have gone

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014011012/UW96-21.GIF?10-18 UKMO on board

ECM to be updated 12z

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011000/ECM1-96.GIF?10-12

 

If you look at the NH plot you will see what happens to the shape of the high

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014011012/UN96-21.GIF?10-18

 

look at that deflated shape-- all the while the Scandi high looks like a beat up coke can we are really going to struggle with any cold.

So now that its modelled to be there -until it lifts out ( circa day 8 on the ECM) forget it im afraid...

 

S

Edited January 10, 2014 by Steve Murr

[Mapantz]

I'm putting what little reputation I have on the line here, but I'll wager that the ever over-progressive GFS is blowing that block away far too quickly. It kept trying to do that during last winter's cold !

The block hasn't occurred yet, so the block is a fantasy as much as the easterly, surely?

[Snowman31]

Hi Steve, is there any hope to get cold with that shortwave you mention in scandanavia?

Edited January 10, 2014 by Snowman31

[Stuie]

Oh the Murr scandi Sausage @ 96