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Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

    A post moaning about the models and the responses to it have been moved to the other thread here

    http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78680-model-banter-moans-and-ramps-winter-201314/

    just to avoid taking this thread away from useful discussion.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

    After how this winter has panned out so far we seriously aren't dismissing another GFS run surely, have we learnt nothing from this winter at all. The ECM is to progressive with blocks to our East whilst the GFS is the same with troughs to our West, end result stalemate much as we are seeing now.

    Edited by Sceptical Inquirer
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    Posted
  • Location: Droylsden, Manchester, 94 metres/308 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Dry/mild/warm/sunny/high pressure/no snow/no rain
  • Location: Droylsden, Manchester, 94 metres/308 feet ASL

    After how this winter has panned out so far we seriously aren't dismissing another GFS run surely, have we learnt nothing from this winter at all. The ECM is to progressive with blocks to our East whilst the GFS is the same with troughs to our West, end result stalemate much as we are seeing now.

     

    I'm sitting on the fence like last time, gonna give it another 5 days or so. Probably sensible given the last saga!

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    Posted
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to Early October
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now

    After how this winter has panned out so far we seriously aren't dismissing another GFS run surely, have we learnt nothing from this winter at all. The ECM is to progressive with blocks to our East whilst the GFS is the same with troughs to our West, end result stalemate much as we are seeing now.

    which makes it all the more intriguing as people bang on about ECM verification rates being better,surely therefore we are overdue one of its "beast from the east" scenarios to finally occur. I still will always stick by what UKMO have to say out to medium range- if we see a rise to 50% or more from them of the likelihood of an easterly again I will feel more optimistic
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    Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol

    18z GFS is most certainly one for the bin. 

     

    gfs has been making fools of many a folk this winter. disregard it at your own peril. the 18z may, or may not, be onto something. But the ensembles from gefs and the Canadian, show that it is way too soon to get our hopes up, for anything sustained. And, as for the ecm... give it 12 hrs. It really has been all over the place recently.

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    Posted
  • Location: BIRMINGHAM B6 ASTON WM. About 112MASL 367.36FT
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWY WINTERS AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
  • Location: BIRMINGHAM B6 ASTON WM. About 112MASL 367.36FT

    So ECM, GEM and JMA all have an Easterly flow by day 8 with just the GFS failing.

    Surely we are overdue a stonking pub run. well here's noaa's take on the gfs over the pond.

    THE ECENS MEAN CONTINUES TO OFFER THE LEAST JUMPY OF SOLUTIONS

    THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE IN A PATTERN DOMINATED BY SMALLER SCALE

    SHORTWAVES THAT WILL BE TOUGH TO PIN DOWN. THE LARGE SCALE

    RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN CENTERED OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND AND

    SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO... RESPECTIVELY... SHOWS NO SIGN OF BREAKING

    DOWN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE ENSEMBLES SHOW THE MOST SPREAD

    OFFSHORE THE PAC NW AND ALSO EAST OF THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS IN THE

    WESTERN ATLANTIC. 500MB HEIGHT STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES STAY NEAR +2

    IN THE RIDGE AXIS THROUGH THU/D7 EVEN IN THE ENSEMBLE MEANS WHICH

    IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE.

    ...PREFERENCES...

    THE GFS CONTINUES TO WOBBLE JUST OUTSIDE THE GOOD CLUSTERING OF

    THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET AND ECENS MEAN EARLY IN THE PERIOD... SO

    STAYED WITH CONTINUITY AND THAT USUALLY WELL-PERFORMING CLUSTER.

    BY TUE/D5... THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES DIVERGE QUITE STRONGLY AROUND

    140W AS TROUGHING IN THE PACIFIC PUSHES UP AGAINST THE RIDGING TO

    THE EAST. STILL PREFER TO BLOCK ENERGY FROM COMING EAST INTO THE

    HEART OF THE RIDGE /WHICH IS WHAT THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS/ AND WOULD

    RATHER SPLIT ENERGY N-S LIKE THE 00Z UKMET AND 06Z GFS... SENDING

    WEAKER ENERGY TOWARD THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THEN MAYBE UP AND OVER

    THE RIDGE THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA. WHILE THIS MAY OPEN THE DOOR

    FOR THE SOUTHERN ENERGY TO SLIDE UNDER THE RIDGE... THE ENSEMBLES

    GENERALLY SUPPORT MAINTAINING OR EVEN STRENGTHENING THE RIDGE

    ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME MID-LEVEL ENERGY TO

    DIG THROUGH THE ROCKIES BUT IT WOULD LIKELY BE WEAK AND

    MOISTURE-STARVED. IN THE EAST... NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER SYSTEM

    SHOULD PUSH THROUGH MON/D4 BEFORE THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS A BIT

    WESTWARD IN THE OH VALLEY... WHICH OPENS THE DOOR FOR LOW PRESSURE

    DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE. UPSTREAM RIDGE CONFIGURATION WILL HAVE AN

    IMPACT ON THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH POSITION/ORIENTATION... AND

    ULTIMATELY HOW CLOSE SAID LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOP TO THE

    COAST. FOR NOW... WILL KEEP THINGS OFFSHORE AS THE TREND HAS

    USUALLY BEEN EAST RATHER THAN WEST WITH MANY RECENT SYSTEMS IN THE

    DAY 5-7 TIME FRAME.

     

    ...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

    STILL NOT MUCH TO HIGHLIGHT AS FAR AS RAIN/SNOW... CONFINED TO THE

    GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST AND ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE WEST WILL STAY

    WARM WITH SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY OR EVEN LIKELY TO

    CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST WILL GENERALLY TREND COLDER

    THAN CLIMO.

     

    FRACASSO.

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    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

    gfs has been making fools of many a folk this winter. disregard it at your own peril. the 18z may, or may not, be onto something. But the ensembles from gefs and the Canadian, show that it is way too soon to get our hopes up, for anything sustained. And, as for the ecm... give it 12 hrs. It really has been all over the place recently.

    The problem is that the large Azores high cannot link up with the Greenland high and the Greenland high keeps getting bullied by energy coming out of the eastern US. The GFS keeps showing these link attempts, whilst the ECM is playing with an easterly. If the GFS starts playing with an easterly too, then we could be in luck.

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    Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor

    The ECM ens show far more easterly solutions for Warsaw and Berlin this evening....................

    It does look good for Europe as the extended bbc forecast for Berlin suggests sub-zero temperatures from Wednesday! Wonder what sources the BBC use for their forecasts ???

     

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2950159

    Edited by prolongedSnowLover
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    Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)

    Anyone feel like we are going in circles ?The weather has been in this position a few times.Don't think anything can be discarded ,Met office must be looking east to west constantly,but as things stand we are still gently tugging the weather from the west .tonights models show once again we are close to dragging in a cold pool. Until we lose that cold pool in the Scandinavia this could run for some time .It's starting to become very interesting

    Likely to be there until at least March.. plenty of opportunities for the very cold. Potentially CFS is on to something for a very cold spell early Feb from the northeast (well the one I use anyway indicates this!) but unfortunately could keep the drift of wet weather as it is now, but with the quite boring type of cold too!! even could end up quite settled cold/dry damp/fog with a high in wrong place for real cold.

    Edited by ElectricSnowStorm
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    Posted
  • Location: BIRMINGHAM B6 ASTON WM. About 112MASL 367.36FT
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWY WINTERS AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
  • Location: BIRMINGHAM B6 ASTON WM. About 112MASL 367.36FT

    wel wel i c every1 had a good time at the ecmf party lets hope the 00h runs don't brings us down to erth with a bang. Interesting day of model watching and it looks like all coldies got something to chear about at last. Although the ecmf came up with the goods this evening i'm not going to get excited quite yet. Untill we have cross model agreement this could go ither way we have been here before with ecmf this winter. It's not stil in the reliable timeframe just yet 144-240h is a long way out in weather turms.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    Nice chart at 252, I think this is the period we should be looking at for colder prospects now. Blocking has been showing up on a few runs over the Arctic and Greenland. The 00z's 850s are not very cold though, better positioning of the hights may be required to tap into real cold air , and hopefully get some stronger Northerly to Easterly flow to the UK

    Edited by Ali1977
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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.

    What the heck has happened overnight on the UKMO, looks very poor and zonal to me.. Not sure I'm too happy with ECM at 120 either...

    Please can somebody update the rest of the run.

    Regardless it's friday folks...

    Edited by TSNWK
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    Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

    Well everyone was bashing the gfs last night. But it appears it may be leading the way once again. The ukmo is looking very zonal this morning. ECM isn't looking great either. Don't understand why the gfs gets so much stick on here. It's certainly been best model so far this winter. The ECM has been shocking.

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    Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

    Any chance of a chart to back this up?? or is it just your thoughts ?? Posted Image

    at work so on my phone can't post charts at moment I'm afraid. But certainly a backtrack towards the gfs solution from the ukmo and ECM this morning
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    Posted
  • Location: Lowestoft, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Warm Summers, Snowy Winters
  • Location: Lowestoft, Suffolk

    I don't think I could describe the pattern shown on the 00z runs as "Zonal". As a matter of fact I still think what is shown is quite favourable for cold. The Scandi high is going to be quite a beast to shift.

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    Some surprised viewers that another ECM easterly has backtracked? This morning 0z run:

     

    168: post-14819-0-57060900-1389941763_thumb.g  192: post-14819-0-91133800-1389941762_thumb.g

     

    216: post-14819-0-51673400-1389941781_thumb.g  T240: post-14819-0-41146900-1389942546_thumb.g

     

    Of course these could be wrong as well, ECM op past T168 is a waste of time this Winter.

     

    GFS has been saying mostly no to this third possible shot of cold this month and again to T240 thats what the charts say.

     

    GFS T192: post-14819-0-46111300-1389941963_thumb.p  GFS Mean at T150: post-14819-0-70114700-1389942103_thumb.p Not great.

     

    The members at T168 moving away from a UK trough with the AH in play more: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=168

     

    FI for GFS shows shannon entropy in its full glory with some lovely synoptic charts and plenty of potential (sorry). At T288 the spread highlights the NH uncertainty:

     

    post-14819-0-78721400-1389942372_thumb.p

     

    GEM remains interesting.

     

    GEM T192: post-14819-0-01340400-1389942023_thumb.p

     

    No change really IMO, much of the same (average temps with rain) with a background signal that things may change to a colder outlook, but no continuity to suggest that is the way forward yet.

    Edited by i'm dreaming of...
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    Posted
  • Location: Preston, 19m ASL when tide out :(
  • Location: Preston, 19m ASL when tide out :(

    PV continues to get smashed to bits this morning, although not great runs for our little corner the Northern Hemisphere on the whole is under going big changes

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    So chopping and changing on the Scandi high vs Atlantic war (what a surprise)

    My chart for the day is this.

    Posted Image

    Even the "progressive" GFS is seeing something big happening on the Pacific side of the pole.

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    Posted
  • Location: North Norfolk/Southampton
  • Location: North Norfolk/Southampton

    Seems as if it's a case of two steps forward and two steps back and so on and so on with us left in a bit of a stalemate position. Not sure whether the block to the east is a help or a hindrance. Lows stalling over the UK for the next few days as they run into the block so it looks like more of the same although perhaps a bit cooler. Jet then looks to power up towards the end of next week as a massive cold plunge takes hold of the US again. Both GFS/ECM have this powering through us at 240 with the resurgence of potential stormy weather. Looks to me as if it would be difficult for that block to be sustained with such an attack. Finding it hard to see any major pattern shift in the models at present although we have seen some flirtation. GEM looks out of kilter this morning.

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