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Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards


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I would settle for any kind of cold to at least make it feel like January for a change, I think next week could be more interesting than the met office are currently describing.

Surely it can't be that different down there in West Yorkshire to Durham? Feels like a very average January here, bit of everything really, including several frosts already. Certainly been well wrapped up on icy mornings the bike!
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the polar profile is gaining momentum re the developing -AO. The scandi block is the near term and then wanes late on ( or does it). Upstream is going to be amplified but how that transpires re the Canadian vortex energy is anyone's guess. Whilst the extended ens mean/anomolys continue with the same pattern of the trough diving in around the Atlantic ridge, surely the changes over the pole will have some effect on this?

Is not the high arctic/pole the most 'difficult' region to model with any confidence?

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Surely it can't be that different down there in West Yorkshire to Durham? Feels like a very average January here, bit of everything really, including several frosts already. Certainly been well wrapped up on icy mornings the bike!

Nah it feels like it's still autumn here, looking forward to winter. The models are looking more promising, let's hope they build some cold momentum in the days ahead and no more false dawns.
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I didn't think it possible but the GFS pub run is more progressive even than the ultra progressive 12z. What a great model it is. Did I say great? I meant something else.

Edited by Mucka
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The 12Z Steve Murr model goes for the 'Super Easterly' on February 1st. Unbelievable blocking to our North. That is one verrrrrrry powerful High Pressure system: Posted Image

 

(Steve Murr Sea Level Pressure + H500 chart for February 1st. The High to our North really helping to get all those Lows sliding underneath us. Very low thicknesses too, with those blues and purples, so some super heavy convective snow likely)

Posted ImageSteve Murr 12z slp.png

 

This evolution happened due to his model showing a strong amplified High to our West with a elongated trough alligned perfectly to the West of it drawing some extremely warm towards the Western Greenland vortex, via extremely warm Southerly winds, killing the Polar Vortex off in that area. A very strong Greenland/Eastern Greenland High formed. The pacific ridging helped to play a part with this too, with some of the blocking over Scandinavia merging with the Eastern Greenland block on that 12Z run. No wonder that block is so strong.

 

The Steve Murr model then showed the Lows taking on an even more Southerly track through the UK (as shown in the chart above) with increasingly colder air filtering in from the East and North-East.

 

Below shows some seriously chilly 850 hPa temperatures affecting the UK, with the 850 hPa's getting as low as -21*C for the North-East of the UK. Posted Image

Posted Imagesteve murr 12z uppers uk.png

 

I did think it would be a cold outlier in relation to the Super Murr Ensembles on the line graph below. These are just the ones for Steve Murr's house, though. But can you believe it? - the 12Z Steve Murr operational run is actually a mild outlier. So the actual outlook could turn out to be even colder. However, aside from the fact that the operational model is one of the warmer members (but still clearly exceptionally chilly), the confidence for such polar bear like conditions seems rather high with the general tight clustering of the lines on the graph. I don't expect the Steve Murr model to change much on future runs, thanks to such strong ensemble support, except maybe for chances for the cold to improve a little further.

Posted Imagesuper murr ens 12z uppers.png

 

Fingers crossed that the others models, such as the ECMWF (which does sort of seem to be heading in the right way), start falling more in line with the Steve Murr model (if it's mega chilly and potentially rather snowy conditions you're after). Some caution needed as always, though, since the potential is in FI.

 

The Steve Murr model is highly regarded by the NOAA, and even the Met Office, so would be surprised if something like this doesn't come off. Maybe this Winter could be saved for the cold and snow fans afterall. Posted Image

 

(Edit: probably should add in case it causes further confusion, that for any new model reader's reading this, the SM model isn't a real model. Just for a little bit of fun really).

 

better now youve edited it! was thinking it shouldn't be posted in here, more for humour thread/regionals or model moods thread, would have new members thinking beast on the way

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The 12Z Steve Murr model goes for the 'Super Easterly' on February 1st. Unbelievable blocking to our North. That is one verrrrrrry powerful High Pressure system: Posted Image

 

(Steve Murr Sea Level Pressure + H500 chart for February 1st. The High to our North really helping to get all those Lows sliding underneath us. Very low thicknesses too, with those blues and purples, so some super heavy convective snow likely)

Posted ImageSteve Murr 12z slp.png

 

This evolution happened due to his model showing a strong amplified High to our West with a elongated trough alligned perfectly to the West of it drawing some extremely warm towards the Western Greenland vortex, via extremely warm Southerly winds, killing the Polar Vortex off in that area. A very strong Greenland/Eastern Greenland High formed. The pacific ridging helped to play a part with this too, with some of the blocking over Scandinavia merging with the Eastern Greenland block on that 12Z run. No wonder that block is so strong.

 

The Steve Murr model then showed the Lows taking on an even more Southerly track through the UK (as shown in the chart above) with increasingly colder air filtering in from the East and North-East.

 

Below shows some seriously chilly 850 hPa temperatures affecting the UK, with the 850 hPa's getting as low as -21*C for the North-East of the UK. Posted Image

Posted Imagesteve murr 12z uppers uk.png

 

I did think it would be a cold outlier in relation to the Super Murr Ensembles on the line graph below. These are just the ones for Steve Murr's house, though. But can you believe it? - the 12Z Steve Murr operational run is actually a mild outlier. So the actual outlook could turn out to be even colder. However, aside from the fact that the operational model is one of the warmer members (but still clearly exceptionally chilly), the confidence for such polar bear like conditions seems rather high with the general tight clustering of the lines on the graph. I don't expect the Steve Murr model to change much on future runs, thanks to such strong ensemble support, except maybe for chances for the cold to improve a little further.

Posted Imagesuper murr ens 12z uppers.png

 

Fingers crossed that the others models, such as the ECMWF (which does sort of seem to be heading in the right way), start falling more in line with the Steve Murr model (if it's mega chilly and potentially rather snowy conditions you're after). Some caution needed as always, though, since the potential is in FI.

 

The Steve Murr model is highly regarded by the NOAA, and even the Met Office, so would be surprised if something like this doesn't come off. Maybe this Winter could be saved for the cold and snow fans afterall. Posted Image

 

(Edit: probably should add in case it causes further confusion, that for any new model reader's reading this, the SM model isn't a real model. Just for a little bit of fun really).

If Carlsberg.....all posts would be as good as yours :- )
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The 12Z Steve Murr model goes for the 'Super Easterly' on February 1st. Unbelievable blocking to our North. That is one verrrrrrry powerful High Pressure system: Posted Image

 

(Steve Murr Sea Level Pressure + H500 chart for February 1st. The High to our North really helping to get all those Lows sliding underneath us. Very low thicknesses too, with those blues and purples, so some super heavy convective snow likely)

Posted ImageSteve Murr 12z slp.png

 

This evolution happened due to his model showing a strong amplified High to our West with a elongated trough alligned perfectly to the West of it drawing some extremely warm towards the Western Greenland vortex, via extremely warm Southerly winds, killing the Polar Vortex off in that area. A very strong Greenland/Eastern Greenland High formed. The pacific ridging helped to play a part with this too, with some of the blocking over Scandinavia merging with the Eastern Greenland block on that 12Z run. No wonder that block is so strong.

 

The Steve Murr model then showed the Lows taking on an even more Southerly track through the UK (as shown in the chart above) with increasingly colder air filtering in from the East and North-East.

 

Below shows some seriously chilly 850 hPa temperatures affecting the UK, with the 850 hPa's getting as low as -21*C for the North-East of the UK. Posted Image

Posted Imagesteve murr 12z uppers uk.png

 

I did think it would be a cold outlier in relation to the Super Murr Ensembles on the line graph below. These are just the ones for Steve Murr's house, though. But can you believe it? - the 12Z Steve Murr operational run is actually a mild outlier. So the actual outlook could turn out to be even colder. However, aside from the fact that the operational model is one of the warmer members (but still clearly exceptionally chilly), the confidence for such polar bear like conditions seems rather high with the general tight clustering of the lines on the graph. I don't expect the Steve Murr model to change much on future runs, thanks to such strong ensemble support, except maybe for chances for the cold to improve a little further.

Posted Imagesuper murr ens 12z uppers.png

 

Fingers crossed that the others models, such as the ECMWF (which does sort of seem to be heading in the right way), start falling more in line with the Steve Murr model (if it's mega chilly and potentially rather snowy conditions you're after). Some caution needed as always, though, since the potential is in FI.

 

The Steve Murr model is highly regarded by the NOAA, and even the Met Office, so would be surprised if something like this doesn't come off. Maybe this Winter could be saved for the cold and snow fans afterall. Posted Image

 

(Edit: probably should add in case it causes further confusion, that for any new model reader's reading this, the SM model isn't a real model. Just for a little bit of fun really).

 

 

post-11361-0-83223700-1389911119_thumb.p

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less amplification early on the 18z causes block to further east. its lost the plot by t186 i cant even see how deep that low is coming off Newfoundland the isobars are so tight

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The Steve Murr model may be the Carlsberg run but the 18z is the Gnat's P**s one!

 

Posted Image

Posted Image

 

 

Yeh, The planet has altered its axis. 18z Must have withdrawal symptoms or hung over.. 

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Oh dear of all the models runs during the day - I always ignore the 18z GFS - it always shows very odd happenings - discard it.

Yep o dear look at that high pressure at t372 stretching from east coast of Canada across Europe to East coast of Russia. longest ever? well done pub run like that will verify.

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The 12Z Steve Murr model goes for the 'Super Easterly' on February 1st. Unbelievable blocking to our North. That is one verrrrrrry powerful High Pressure system: Posted Image

 

(Steve Murr Sea Level Pressure + H500 chart for February 1st. The High to our North really helping to get all those Lows sliding underneath us. Very low thicknesses too, with those blues and purples, so some super heavy convective snow likely)

Posted ImageSteve Murr 12z slp.png

 

 

Brilliant, and welcome light-heartedness to bring to the thread amidst the robust model debate.  I think the Gavin Model should answer with their own perturbations.

 

One day that setup will happen.

Edited by Chris W
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Anyone feel like we are going in circles ?

The weather has been in this position a few times.

Don't think anything can be discarded ,

Met office must be looking east to west constantly,but as things stand we are still gently tugging the weather from the west .tonights models show once again we are close to dragging in a cold pool. Until we lose that cold pool in the Scandinavia this could run for some time .

It's starting to become very interesting

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