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Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards


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Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Although the irony of this-

     

    The Scandi shortwave at T0 does a complete LAP of scandi to end up in exactly the wrong place again at 240-  watch it go round-

     

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0

     

    S

    Lol! that's unbelievable its like it works its way round to land at the worst possible moment, if that verified like that then seriously we've all been very bad in a previous life and are getting punished for it now !

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    Posted
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme and Exciting weather, hate stratus clouds and drizzile
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.

    So, after been led up the Garden path last week, we are again showing a cold scenario from the East Tonight! Certainly sees some trend in cold weather...... "Now".... after a rather long wait to see if we are looking west or looking east , the trend is to look east, Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Before all of that we have slow moving fronts in the coming days with more problems with flooding!Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

    Edited by ANYWEATHER
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    Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

    So, after been led up the Garden path last week, we are again showing a cold scenario from the East Tonight! Certainly sees some trend in cold weather...... "Now".... after a rather long wait to see if we are looking west or looking east , the trend is to look east, Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Before all of that we have slow moving fronts in the coming days with more problems with flooding!Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

    The trend remains much the same IMO, a big block to the East and toughing aligned over poor old rain soaked blighty.  Until we see model consensus then I'm sticking with no changes to the status quo in the next 7-10 days at least.

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    Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex

    The trend remains much the same IMO, a big block to the East and toughing aligned over poor old rain soaked blighty.  Until we see model consensus then I'm sticking with no changes to the status quo in the next 7-10 days at least.

    Fair enough, but you have to admit tonight has been good to look at.

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    Posted
  • Location: Pucklechurch near Bristol 113m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers and cold winters with snow.
  • Location: Pucklechurch near Bristol 113m ASL

    The trend remains much the same IMO, a big block to the East and toughing aligned over poor old rain soaked blighty.  Until we see model consensus then I'm sticking with no changes to the status quo in the next 7-10 days at least.

    FWIW Ian F just said on local news, models showing weather turning colder end of next week. Used the term cold snap though not spell, back to the model output and tonights at least gives us hope again of something more seasonal and hopefully things will firm up on next few days runs.

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    Posted
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

    The trend remains much the same IMO, a big block to the East and toughing aligned over poor old rain soaked blighty.  Until we see model consensus then I'm sticking with no changes to the status quo in the next 7-10 days at least.

    Difference is the upstream pattern is modeled to change which it wasn't before..things therefore look much more favourable to a cold outbreak than they did a week ago..then i would have said there was a zero % chance of cold coming to the UK now i would say its 50/50

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    Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)

    The iceberg keeps tryin to get in but keeps getting melted by the blowtorch.

     

    The Scandi high is in development, although it is quite possible to remain in this pattern of mild/wet Atlantic flows but with few cold periods thrown in, am seeing signs of a slow change, more and more occluded fronts, less wind, a slow down, changes to the jetstream..  I would expect that once developments to the n/e take hold and move in then there stick for a few weeks I expect...(very cold)

    Edited by ElectricSnowStorm
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    Posted
  • Location: hertfordshire
  • Location: hertfordshire

    There is finally something worth talking about in the model output roughly

    speaking t168 onwards.Before then yes maybe a little wintryness here and

    there but its from the end of next week onwards that things are really

    starting to look up.Of course the amplified charts have everything to do

    with strat warming but just a little caution as the models may be reacting

    to quickly to what is going on higher up in the atmosphere.

    Hoping for some fun and games during the last five or so weeks of winter and

    perhaps on into March.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bishops Cleeve, Cheltenham. 300 M ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, the very hot and the very cold.
  • Location: Bishops Cleeve, Cheltenham. 300 M ASL

    Looking no further that T168 the models are moving towards some colder weather with high pressure continuing to stick around Norway and beyond and a low drifts south east to prevent any High dropping into Europe. This helps push the High towards the U.k

    It's a messy picture but certainly signs of a change and a chance to dry out a bit. Cold enough for snow is another question, but I like what is happening. Pretty strange Synoptics but interesting to see where we go from here.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

    It's certainly an interesting trend, it would be good to see output show consistency and firm up on the idea. Let's hope we can get a good swan song from the season.

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    Posted
  • Location: Coney Hall Village 260ft asl, North West Kent
  • Location: Coney Hall Village 260ft asl, North West Kent

    Have the models ever shown a split in the PV like that before?? Dont remember myself but mere newbie.

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Quite a few colder solutions for De Bilt from next Tuesday in the short ensembles compared to the operational run, the colder ones would be correcting the pattern further west and so of course this would increase the chance for snow for the UK as those shortwaves run se.

     

    http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/PLUIM_06260_NWT.png

     

    The ECM postage stamps at T120hrs give a good indication of those that are in that colder cluster as they would have this better early foundation:

     

    http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/teasers/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!120!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2014011612!!/

     

    The ones with the pattern further east and the deeper more rounded shape lows near the UK are unlikely to develop to that colder cluster.

    Edited by nick sussex
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    Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011612/EDH0-240.GIF?16-0 ECM 10 day mean shows the UK cold- But look at Canada again!!!!-  big bowling ball cold moving back South..... S

    would that have any affect on us SteveI mean affect the jet streamSorry if it's a doh questionStill learning
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    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

    Have got to say my recent visit to Sussex was a bit of a shock. Have never seen this landscape as water filled before. Flying into Gatwick was like looking down on to a bog. Back from the pub tonight, the locals cannot comprehend how much rain has fallen this winter in Southern Britain, especially as they had such a dry winter season so far and only 2 hours flight away from soggy Blighty. They were also in shock that some places in Southern Britain have not seen a snowflake or even a air frost as yet. Not much hope of drying out , looking at tonight models, maybe dryer colder conditions to the east are closer, but the snow, lying deep , crisp and even in Stockholm this evening, might as well be a million miles away or at least a 2 hour flight from.

     Some hope that colder weather on the cards later next week, but its a painful and frustrating process looking at most models and then only 50/50 chance. More importantly, you need to dry out and we over here need some precipitation soon.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    FWIW Ian F just said on local news, models showing weather turning colder end of next week. Used the term cold snap .

    I would settle for any kind of cold to at least make it feel like January for a change, I think next week could be more interesting than the met office are currently describing.
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    Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.

    Fantastic output this evening, and yes, I know the building blocks are the changes in the upstream pattern, earlier on, but that famous phrase "model fatigue" has me in non-believer mode!!!I will of course, be following very closely, but I'm looking no further until this gets into t72!!! Then I'll believe. Also interesting that MOGREPS reduced it's possibilities to 25% for an easterly solution. This is far from resolved, and while some of our more seasoned posters are giving this a 50/50 chance, I'm not that confident…. YET!

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    Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

    I would say they is still a lot to be resolved in the coming days yet with the models. Mogreps was going for 50% outbreak from the east. Now that's diminished somewhat to 25%. Think 50/50 is about correct at the moment. Still believe this could go either way. Just a quick point regarding the ECM how many times have we seen it showing cold this winter? Only for it to fail miserably every time. Anyway going to be interesting model watching over the coming days. Let the battle commence.

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    Hi Blue army you could ALMOST say its got reasonable confidence-  look at the UKMO Height profiles at 144 over the arctic http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014011612/UN144-21.GIF?16-18Classic -AO building - possible NOAA Runs tomorrow showing -4/-5 departures. S

    the polar profile is gaining momentum re the developing -AO. The scandi block is the near term and then wanes late on ( or does it). Upstream is going to be amplified but how that transpires re the Canadian vortex energy is anyone's guess. Whilst the extended ens mean/anomolys continue with the same pattern of the trough diving in around the Atlantic ridge, surely the changes over the pole will have some effect on this?
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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    the polar profile is gaining momentum re the developing -AO. The scandi block is the near term and then wanes late on ( or does it). Upstream is going to be amplified but how that transpires re the Canadian vortex energy is anyone's guess. Whilst the extended ens mean/anomolys continue with the same pattern of the trough diving in around the Atlantic ridge, surely the changes over the pole will have some effect on this?

    Yes more + polar heights = more force pushing the low South -

     

    The GFS control is near on identical to the ECM @ 240

     

    S

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    Posted
  • Location: South Kilkenny Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Frost, Thunder and Storms
  • Location: South Kilkenny Ireland

    Some interesting charts tonight

     

    Ironically for all the good charts showing easterly promise - the coldest uppers for U.K. or Ireland currently modeled are on the ECM + 240 chart............ from a westerly

     

    Posted Image

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