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Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex

    Tantalizingly close cold uppers to the east. Keep nudging west please.

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    Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset

    http://null/TWO/ensembles/

    The 06z ens are interesting towards the end.

    The operational has little support which should suprise noone given the 'Benny Hill' output we've been subjected to lately, however look at the mean.

    Something remarkable is going to happen, no bugger on here, at the met and certainly not the models have a scooby what it is.... but id put my mortgage on February being talked about for some years.

    I Feel February will be a Newsworthy month ,but for what reason is still in the dark .so interesting times and some good model watching ,cheers all Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex

    Cold pool growing in Scandi!

     

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    The ECM is close to delivering a pile of snow but not sure about whether the undercut would be good enough here, but the synoptics especially for eastern and ne areas of the UK look interesting.

     

    The pattern finally amplifies across the eastern USA and helps to stop those hideous purples from heading further east.

    Edited by nick sussex
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    Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex

    Decent cold run from the ECM, loving that cold European air.

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    No where near, your area in very mild uppers!

    he is talking about the UK :)

    ECM getting there slowly

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    ECM holds some interest tonight, and suggest it may be a bad idea to write of the rest of Jan with regards to some wintry weather. Nowhere near there yet but at day 5 + and charts like this around we sill have possibilities.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    No where near, your area in very mild uppers!

    I wasn't talking about the sw of France, just the synoptics in general for the UK, all my posts are only in relation to the UK unless I make clear mention of France.

    Edited by nick sussex
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    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

    The ECM is close to delivering a pile of snow but not sure about whether the undercut would be good enough here, but the synoptics especially for eastern and ne areas of the UK look interesting.

     

    The pattern finally amplifies across the eastern USA and helps to stop those hideous purples from heading further east.

    ECM seems to specialize in predicting non existant snowfalls this winter, how many of its cold spells have actually happened this winter..................0 Now if the GFS predicts a cold spell, then I may get interested.Posted Image Haven't seen the latest GFS, it hasn't let us down yet this winter, what is it predicting.

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    Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex

    I suppose Nick this is the limelight your were talking about from the ECM. That is lovely!

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Don't you just love the ECM, nearly a cross polar flow here, and unless something bizarre happens at day 9 and 10 locked in cold.

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    168, getting there!! And looks a more plausible solution to me.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    Decent JMA nice disruption SE at 120h

     

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    Possible snow 

     

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    And cold by 192 but longevity looks dubious

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Slight improvement of all models ECM shows the door opening to Atlantic again in deep FI so apart from that it's best of the bunch in FI land. In the reliable time frame plenty of rain around it should cool down although not enough to prevent a mild month from being recorded. The runs should ensure it's going to be one of the wetter Jans on record as well.

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    Posted
  • Location: Warwickshire/Oxon/Northants Border
  • Location: Warwickshire/Oxon/Northants Border

    Who will win?

     

    On the left it is west, and on the right it is the east.

     

    Will there be a fight?

     

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    Edited by 'ColdIsBest'
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    So ECM, GEM and JMA all have an Easterly flow by day 8 with just the GFS failing.

    Surely we are overdue a stonking pub run.

    Edited by Mucka
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    Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex

    That`s it, too much eye candy in FI. Probably will not verify but who cares, say as you see.

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