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Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    GEFS 06z vs 12z mean at day 7

     

    Posted Image  Posted Image

     

    Not as positive you have to say.

    A stronger more cyclonic westerly flow.

    And that's why looking at the mean can sometimes be a bad idea, there are a huge range of solutions, note the few which go with a GEM type strong Atlantic ridge, there are also some scandi heights and heights more centred towards the pole. As well as more progressive members.

    Also with Ian fergusson stating near record Shannon entropy, and rapidly warming strat and an unseasonably cold plunge about to occur across the states, I would treat progressive members with a lot of skepticism, well as much as the blocking ones get on here Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Not a fan of heatstroke.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
    Posted · Hidden by chrisbell-nottheweatherman, January 16, 2014 - Others have already covered it.
    Hidden by chrisbell-nottheweatherman, January 16, 2014 - Others have already covered it.

    from whom please?

    do you have access to it?

    From Ian F earlier, John.

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    from whom please?

    do you have access to it?

    hi john I think ian f posted an hour or so ago.

    saying yesterday it stood at 50% but now down to 25% which would mean theres still a small majority going towards an easterly.

    GEFS 06z vs 12z mean at day 7

     

    Posted Image  Posted Image

     

    Not as positive you have to say.

    A stronger more cyclonic westerly flow.

    yes but this is the gefs and it seems to be on its own to be fair.

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    large scatter on the ao but nao look positive but ao a fair dip with scatter.

    Posted Image

    that's a very good neg ao index if its correct -3

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Looks like the new trend to develop high pressure further north towards Svalbard is going to cause even more chaos in the modelling, certainly this is better to stop the PV from sending energy ne, overall though another day and still no real resolution to the outlook.

     

    Its really whether the models have got that area of higher pressure up there correct because the NWP does have problems dealing with that region.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    JMA out to 84h not bad.The rest of the run will be out toward the back-end of the ECM run.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    am I correct in saying if a ao index of -3 then that beats 09/10 ao for that winter ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    large scatter on the ao but nao look positive but ao a fair dip with scatter.

    Posted Image

    that's a very good neg ao index if its correct -3

    Or a positive one of 1.5.

    Who knows.

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    Posted
  • Location: Penkridge
  • Weather Preferences: Virgins
  • Location: Penkridge

    http://null/TWO/ensembles/

    The 06z ens are interesting towards the end.

    The operational has little support which should suprise noone given the 'Benny Hill' output we've been subjected to lately, however look at the mean.

    Something remarkable is going to happen, no bugger on here, at the met and certainly not the models have a scooby what it is.... but id put my mortgage on February being talked about for some years.

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    Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland

    Now this is what i call a split vortex

     

     

    http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-0-1-288.png?12

     

    Way out in no mans land but worth keeping an eye with such a strong ridge pushing up from the west of the US could cause the AO to tank negative. All conjecture at this point i know.

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    I wouldn't put it past the ECM to want to be the headline act this evening, it hates to be overshadowed! We do need a health advisory with it though, if it follows the UKMO it might well really go over the top with that pressure rise northwards, just as the GFS has a bias we have seen in recent winters a few from the ECM.

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
    Posted · Hidden by tight isobar, January 16, 2014 - No reason given
    Hidden by tight isobar, January 16, 2014 - No reason given
    http://null/TWO/ensembles/

    The 06z ens are interesting towards the end.

    The operational has little support which should suprise noone given the 'Benny Hill' output we've been subjected to lately, however look at the mean.

    Something remarkable is going to happen, no bugger on here, at the met and certainly not the models have a scooby what it is.... but id put my mortgage

    http://null/TWO/ensembles/

    The 06z ens are interesting towards the end.

    The operational has little support which should suprise noone given the 'Benny Hill' output we've been subjected to lately, however look at the mean.

    Something remarkable is going to happen, no bugger on here, at the met and certainly not the models have a scooby what it is.... but id put my mortgage on February being talked about for some years.

    certainly wouldn't disagree with you there some real interest in develops. One feels something paramount is around the corner. ?..over to the ECM 12z.
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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

     

    I wouldn't put it past the ECM to want to be the headline act this evening, it hates to be overshadowed! We do need a health advisory with it though, if it follows the UKMO it might well really go over the top with that pressure rise northwards, just as the GFS has a bias we have seen in recent winters a few from the ECM.

     Two things to look for from ecm at T144 this evening. the aleutian low and the east coast low. how deep are they. gem has both very deep and this drives its pattern of atlantic ridge and very split vortex from the pacific side. ukmo has the aleutian low deep - it splits the vortex earlier than gem due to its earlier arctic high and different modelling of the chunks of vrotex wandering around up there. it has a shallow east coast feature - hardly apparent. ecm doesnt deepen either feature particularly on its 00z run.
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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    http://null/TWO/ensembles/The 06z ens are interesting towards the end.The operational has little support which should suprise noone given the 'Benny Hill' output we've been subjected to lately, however look at the mean.Something remarkable is going to happen, no bugger on here, at the met and certainly not the models have a scooby what it is.... but id put my mortgage on February being talked about for some years.

    agreed, one feels something paramount may be around the corner. ! Over to ECM 12Z's.
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    Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )

    I wouldn't put it past the ECM to want to be the headline act this evening, it hates to be overshadowed! We do need a health advisory with it though, if it follows the UKMO it might well really go over the top with that pressure rise northwards, just as the GFS has a bias we have seen in recent winters a few from the ECM.

    It just seems to me that since its update it has failed with blocking each time.
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    Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

    Looking at the models tonight we can obviously see why Shannon empathy has come into this. Mogreps was obviously showing 10% then 50% and now 25% on this potential easterly. Think next week we will see the block hopefully strengthen. Think feb could hopefully be a interesting month. But with volitile nature of the models at the moment anything could happen.

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    The ECM looks similar to the UKMO but a bit different with the shortwave to the north of Iceland, if that clears east quickly then the ECM might well be the star performer.

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    Posted
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

    am I correct in saying if a ao index of -3 then that beats 09/10 ao for that winter ?

    Posted Image

    that's the average for the whole winter of 09/10 not just a few days

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