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Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards


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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    Very strong signal on the gfs 12z that the high to the north east is ridging further north and splitting at 114 hours??hmmm changes a foot possibly regarding heights from the arctic area!!!Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    nice chart from the ukmo at t92 although been stuck there for awhile but it does seem that its trying to ridge nw.

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    Classy looking scandi high there at 138 hrs but the low looks a bit less disrupted,dive under you know you want to!!!!!!!Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

    Very strong signal on the gfs 12z that the high to the north east is ridging further north and splitting at 114 hours??hmmm changes a foot possibly regarding heights from the arctic area!!!Posted Image

     

    Low pressure over the Pacific side though and potentially a further ramping of the Jet as a result into Western USA, it may well be the last 7 to 10 days of January we need to focus on, judging by this GFS output. I will wait and see how others view my analysis of this NH picture and whether the other suites show the same ongoing trend. I'm NOT writing anything cold to very cold off given my experience of past winter model suite dramas but it is likely the same average state of affairs with well above rainfall trends are here to stay for the next seven to ten days.  

    Edited by gottolovethisweather
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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    GFS 12z not looking much good at +144

     

    Posted Image

     

    In a westerly flow by +96

    not a westerly flow at t92 very misleading post its t144 which at the moment is fi.

    t92 is

    Posted Image

    no strong westerly flow there but the t144 yes indeed is but id be inclined to say very progressive and not in line with the ukmo model .

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    look away now if your screamish gfs t144

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    unbelievable when you look at the shape and position of the high over scan!!!!Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

    Classy looking scandi high there at 138 hrs but the low looks a bit less disrupted,dive under you know you want to!!!!!!!Posted Image

     

    At this juncture things will heavily scrutinised by the pros. North, East or West, anything goes. Posted Image

     

    Edit: IanF beat me to it, it seems. Two junctures for the price of one, too. Posted Image

    Edited by gottolovethisweather
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    not a westerly flow at t92 very misleading post its t144 which at the moment is fi.

    t92 is

    Posted Image

    no strong westerly flow there but the t144 yes indeed is but id be inclined to say very progressive and not in line with the ukmo model .

     

    If it's not a westerly flow then where is it coming from??

     

    Posted Image  Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    but at t162 blocking still there id say easterly is still up for grabs and a stronger flow aswell.

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014011612/UN120-21.GIF?16-17

     

    UKMO 120 not particularly great for the UK but at least another burst of deep cold heading west into scandi with another increase in heights on its western flank

     

    GFS 168 sees the easterlies piling up over the continent

     

    http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014011612/gfsnh-0-174.png?12

     

    S

    Edited by Steve Murr
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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)

    unbelievable when you look at the shape and position of the high over scan!!!!Posted Image

    Just wish that azores high would sink and let that low sink Southeast, Then it would be EpicPosted Image All in good time, maybe, all in good time.

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    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

    GFS now pushes a nose of the Azores high way up to the NE towards Iceland bringing us an unsettled easterly flow with low pressure nearby rtowards the south and east of the UK. Will this pattern still be there this evening?Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    can I order a take away please take away the azores high at t174

     

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    almost an epic easterly flow.

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    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

    Well the block comprises of much colder air on this run - hopefully denser and more difficult to shift!

     

    Posted Image

     

    Posted Image

    Edited by Purga
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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    you coudnt write it could you?low moves north east and cuts the flow offPosted Image Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

    Of course GFS blasts the Atlantic in in FI

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    Posted
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft

    Hopefully that horror show from GFS will end up in the shredder with the Azores High the wrecking ball. 

     

    My four year old has known only cold, snowy winters and keeps asking me when it will snow.

     

    Hopefully UKMO at 144 is a trendsetter. All eyes on the ECM

     

    See you this evening. 

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    Doesn't look like the Atlantic is going to play ball on GFS12Z unfortunately-

    UKMO doesn't light any fires for me this evening either if i were being honest.

    Its great to see a decent block to the north east but with the PV as it is and the huge temp gradient off the Eastern seaboard feeding a rampant jet i cant see anything from the east for the forseeable.

    Added to that the METO further outlook and a recent backing away of MOGREPS from a potential easterly and its not a pretty picture.

     

    Obviously with blocking to the NE there is some ambiguity but at this juncture, i'm underwhelmed....

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    Yes GFS 12z being GFS 12z basically. I will be more interested in how much blocking is around within the ensembles at day 10.

     

    GEM offers something better anyway.

     

    Posted Image

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    Half decent UKMO at 144 hrs. Good ECM ahead? GFS is meh.

     

     

    Posted Image

    I suspect the azores high will be the spoiler there Eagle,look at the progression from 120 to 144h,suggests the energy going into the northern arm soonafter...

    Yes GFS 12z being GFS 12z basically. I will be more interested in how much blocking is around within the ensembles at day 10.

     

    GEM offers something better anyway.

     

    Posted Image

    Yes,gets rid of that blasted azores high!! :)

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